Point Blank – October 29
“The Play’s The Thing…"
According to Hamlet, “wherein I’ll catch the conscience of the king.” (Act II, scene II). And for the serious handicapper “The Play” can also be the way to unlock the conscience of a particular game, something buried deep inside the outward appearances of the scoreboard. So as the various numbers and their meanings continue to be a part of the process in this column, there will also be occasions in which the dynamic of a single play is brought into focus. While a touchdown is the measurable limit for what can happen on a football field, many times an individual play can mean much, much more than that.
The first key in this process is to be able to take enough time in your post mortems of each game to isolate those key “flow” plays. And as you compile them, to then develop the ability to see the various “it might have been” scenarios that were in play. There is much to be found through that discipline.
OK, so going from Shakespeare to Whittier across two paragraphs may appear to be confounding. There is a desire for that final scoreboard, and the box score attached to it, to be a proper definition of an event that can be relied on. But sports are played by human beings, and from such are wagers made. It is in understanding the psychological swings inside of a game that one can gain great insight, and the steps taken to accomplish that are among the most worthwhile steps you will take as a handicapper. And in reality it is the uncertainty that the unique bounces provide that become one of your major edges – if the outcomes had the precision of cards or dice, the playing field would be awfully level vs. the marketplace. You should desire uncertainty, in order to have the chance to better understand it than others, and then profit, literally, from that understanding.
So what better time for this topic than a weekend that brought several games that fit the model –
Item: Ohio State 17 Penn State 0, 13:45 3rd Quarter
Item: Ohio State 17 Penn State 17 end of regulation
Ohio State dominated Penn State in the first half, building what appeared to be a commanding lead, and the halftime line was a painted Buckeyes -7, a projection of a 24-point win. Since they opened the second half with the ball that almost seemed short – if they scored on that opening possession, it might have been lights out for a Nittany Lion team that lacks depth. But on the third play of that drive the Lion defense confused J. T. Barrett with a zone blitz, dropping DT Anthony Zettell into pass coverage. Barrett never saw him and threw the ball right into his arms, with Zettell making the catch and rumbling 40 yards to the end zone.
The mood changed drastically on both sidelines. Penn State got the badly needed shot of adrenaline, while Ohio State went into a shell offensively. It led to a swing of 17 points over the second half of play, before the Buckeyes finally escaped in double overtime. How does the game flow if Zettell does not make that play? Much differently, and that was a Pick that was worth a whole lot more than Six.
Item: Miami 10 Jacksonville 3, 12:24 3rd Quarter
Item: Miami 27 Jacksonville 13
The Jacksonville defense was a major focus point in an NFL column last Tuesday, detailing the strong in-season turnaround they were making for the second straight season under Gus Bradley, while also noting that there were adjustments to make for Sunday, having to play without Paul Posluszny and Andre Branch. But Bradley put a solid game plan together, filling the right pieces in for the injured starters, and the Jaguars defense had a dominating first half. The Dolphins were shut down on three-and-outs over their first three possessions, and could only manage 52 yards in the first half.
Miami still had the lead at halftime, however, because of an early Pick-Six that Louis Delmas made off of a Blake Bortles pass. But Jacksonville was in the game, and the defense was leading the way. That defense came up big again to open the third quarter, limiting the Dolphins to six yards on their first possession, which ended with a sack of Ryan Tannehill. And then came the Shakespearean plot twist; a single moment having major implications to the psyche of all involved.
On the first Jaguar play after the punt, Bortles threw another Pick-Six, this time to Brent Grimes, and it became 17-3. And after controlling the Dolphins to that point, the Jacksonville defense lost heart. Perhaps that is natural, on a day in which the offense gave away two TDs, which led to a rather ignoble count – for 212:36 of football, beginning against Pittsburgh back on October 5, the Jacksonville offense had given up more TDs to the opposition (three), than the Jaguar defense (two).
At the time of the second Pick-Six, the Dolphins had gained 58 yards. But they went on to amass 268 the rest of the way, leading to a final box score that actually looked respectable. But what is of more value to the handicapper as a takeaway – a quick glance at the box that shows a slightly below average offensive showing, but nothing that would raise an eyebrow, or the fact that when the Jaguars had their hearts in the game, they shackled the Miami offense? There is often more than one result on the field, though history moves forward with a single takeaway.
Item: Green Bay 16 New Orleans 16, 7:46 3rd Quarter
Item: New Orleans 44 Green Bay 23
You could not tell who the better team was in the Superdome as the Packers and Saints neared the middle of the third quarter on Sunday night, the game looked as close on the field as the tie score indication. But Green Bay was all set to take at least a temporary advantage, putting together a 53-yard drive that was sitting on a third-and-goal at the New Orleans five-yard line. But a few hours later, here was the Associated Prees game story headline: “Drew Brees leads Saints blowout of Packers as Aaron Rodgers falters.”
How did a game that appeared to be so close become a “blowout”? It actually was no such thing – when the counting was done the Packers had 491 yards at 7.8 per play vs. 495 at 7.6 for the Saints. It was that even. But it was yet another example of a single play being worth a substantial swing on the scoreboard, this time with the play not directly producing a point at all.
On that third-down play, Rodgers attempted to get the ball to Andrew Quarless, but it was tipped by CB Corey White, and tipped in such a way that it deflected to LB David Hawthorne. White made a good play, which should have led to an incompletion, but the angle of the tip was truly a geometric fluke. So instead of the Packers kicking a FG to go up 19-16, the Saints got the ball. It was a thunderous momentum swing – just 12:55 of football later, New Orleans led 37-16.
Had you not seen the game, and only glanced at the “blowout” in the AP headline over your Monday morning coffee before going to work, imagine how differently the events would have started to register in your mind.
And so the sport can flow. It may be a daunting challenge to accept that a single bounce of the ball can swing a game by three touchdowns, but it really does happen. And while attempting to sort through the play-by-play of each game may be much more time than you are able to ever incorporate into your handicapping processes, at least accept that fact the scoreboards only tell a partial tale. Had you only see the final score of New Orleans/Green Bay, you would not have recognized how evenly that game had been played. The final from Jacksonville/Miami offers little indication as to how well the Jaguar defense performed, or how poor the Dolphin offense was, until that major turning point. So while you may not have time to sort through the uncertainty, at least be aware that it exists, and accept the final score as an interpretation of events, but one that occasionally misses major plot twists.
“Try to remember, the kind of September”
If you can connect that one without Googling, you are old. But the song did come to mind when the official Nevada numbers for September got released this week – the football hold was a staggering 10.9 percent. Attach that to $450.9 million in handle, and it added up to the fourth highest revenue month for sports wagering in state history. The handle itself was a 2.4 percent increase over September 2013, which will make for an interesting comparison when the October numbers are ready – will the losses of the early season prove to have been significant enough to impact bankrolls across the marketplace?
About last night…
Even playing short-handed, San Antonio had the moxie to out-last a good Dallas team, and it was once again an exhibition of basketball chemistry – 23 assists on 37 made FGs. And Pops was already in prime form, with a fabulous take on Manu Ginobli (20 points and six assists in only 27:41 of floor time) – “He was like zero for 50 in preseason, and had like 19 turnovers per game. But tonight he was Manu Ginobli. He was unbelievable.”
The Spurs did not get the money, closing as -3.5, and in truth for as well as they play the sport, they will be a difficult power rating challenge in the months ahead. Will there ever be a more classic illustration of a team that will only be minding its time until the playoffs come around? Even in a close game against a bitter rival no player got to a full 35:00, despite having two off days ahead, and that may be the in-house plateau that Popovich will be using through the campaign.