Point Blank – October 3rd
Sunday night in fOXbOrOugh
No, that is not a sloppy headline, but rather an attempt to set up this topic - it is the tactical X’s and O’s battle between the Bengals and Patriots that will go a long way towards determining the scoreboard outcome on Sunday night. And the chess match of those game plans brings plenty of food for thought to the handicapping buffet.
Trends have been a big part of discussion here this week, with much of that focus being on what is relevant, and what is not. That takes New England to near the top of the list as a team that we all need to come to terms with. Part of that was detailed here a couple of weeks ago – not only that brilliant record in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady years of rebounding off of a loss, but also the keys as to why it happened (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1035720.aspx). If you don’t want to read all the way through the gist is this – they have won by correcting mistakes and out-smarting opponents, rather than via major talent advantages. Think of all the success they have had through this era, and then list all of the players that will end up in the Hall of Fame. It is not much of a list.
Now to Sunday night. On paper the trend applies. On the field? Not so much. If the Patriots are going to beat the Bengals it may have to be because they physically out-played them, not because they tactically out-schemed them. First is the nature of the setting, which is rare in the NFL. New England has a short preparation week off of a Monday night road game, while Cincinnati is off of a bye. The schedule maker does not draw that up much. Then it is about the coaching inside of those matchups, and to best set that up requires a bit of a detour, all the way to the Bay area.
When Gertrude Stein uttered “The trouble with Oakland is that when you get there, there isn’t any there, there”, it was nearly a quarter of a century before the Raiders existed. But had she been alive to say that about the current state of the franchise, she would be aptly labeled a “Wise Gal” by the betting markets. Since 2003 they have finished at 5-11 or worse in nine of 11 seasons, and will make it 10 of 12 when the final score at Denver is recorded on December 28. And just what the hell does that have to do with Cincinnati/New England? It means time to go back to the well again and talk about Hue Jackson, a conversation that began here back on August 18, and has been rejoined several times since. It is the firing of Dennis Allen this week that pushes a guy we like one step higher on the coaching ladder. Here is why…
Jackson was hired as the Oakland OC in 2010, with the Raiders off of seven straight campaigns of 5-11 or worse. In 2009 the Raiders were #31 in the NFL in both points scored, and total yards. In Jackson’s first season they were #6 and #10 in those same categories, among the best single-season improvements in league annals. It led to 8-8 in the standings, despite HC Tom Cable being overmatched, and Jackson was elevated to that HC job for 2011. It was another 8-8 that season, but somehow that was not good enough for Oakland management, who brought in Reggie McKenzie as GM shortly after the season ended, and dismissed Jackson. That brought Allen on board, for a rather dubious run – in the 36 games since firing Jackson the Raiders have won only eight games, the same count they had under him in 2011 alone. Since 2003, Oakland has gone 37-111 without Jackson around, and 16-16 when he was the OC or HC. Through the rear-view mirror, those two seasons are almost Lombardian.
So the Patriot defense has no tactical advantage against the Bengal attack, as it is currently designed. What about Brady and the offense? That was certainly a disaster for them at Kansas City on Monday night, with many in the Sports Mediaverse calling it the worst game they had ever seen him play. A 59.9 Passer Rating for that loss was certainly low, but it was only his second-worst of the last five seasons. When was he even lower on those charts? A 13-6 loss to the Bengals last October, when he checked in at 52.2.
OK, so Mike Zimmer, the Bengal DC at the time, has moved to Minneapolis. But stepping in to replace him is Paul Guenther, who has been with the team for 10 years, and had been with Marvin Lewis at Washington prior to that. It led to the following endorsement from Lewis after the promotion – “Paul has been Zim’s right-hand man the last few years, so we’re moving in the direction of keeping a good thing going with our defense. He knows what we do and how we do it, and he had a hand in creating it.”
This has been a little long-winded, but it does paint a better portrait of Sunday’s affair that the pure numbers will. For as tempting as it may be to back the Patriots off of an embarrassing loss, especially in that rare home underdog role, the rapier that has been their primary tool for success through the years does not bring a very sharp edge to this matchup.
In the Sights, NCAA…
Two weeks ago there was a Monday take here on the psyche of the Cal defense. This week it was a discourse on both the physical and mental aspects, for a unit that has not only been on the field for an NCAA-record 217 snaps the past two Saturday’s, but has had some additional aspects make that count even worse.
First start with the fact that the defense was under intense pressure to the final play of each game – there was no coasting. They were gassed in allowing 36 points in the 4th quarter at Arizona, and then got extended into those multiple overtime sessions vs. Colorado. So they were high play counts at high intensity. But then there is also the confidence issue of having allowed 105 points, 75 first downs, and 1,256 yards through those games. That can not help but take a toll for a group that will be nothing special even when they are fresh.
A trip to Pullman is not what the doctor ordered for this defense. Connor Halliday threw for 521 yards and three TDs in an easy 44-22 Cougar rout in Berkeley last October, and State will be brimming with confidence after a win at Utah that has slipped through the cracks a bit based on the market pricing of this week’s game. They could have been shell-shocked on Saturday night, allowing TDs on an interception return, punt return, and 76-yard run to fall behind 21-0 just 9:08 into the game. Instead they dominated the Utes by a 28-6 count the rest of the way, getting something that a road underdog of +13 or more almost never walks away with – an outright win despite being -2 in turnovers. And consider this if the game is close late – the Cougar defense has only been on the field for 147 plays the last two weeks, nearly the equivalent of a full game less than their Cal counterparts.
In the Sights, NFL…
The battle between the Arizona Cardinal defense, with the equivalent of a Super Bowl preparation period, taking on Peyton Manning, brings intriguing notions for Sunday. The Cardinals finished #2 on the Football Outsiders “Weighted Defense” charts for 2013, and are #5 so far this season. But for as good as the matchup can be, there are some subtle edges from an unusual direction that may play out on the field, and are worth examining.
There is probably more talk on this page of assistant coaches than just about anywhere else in the betting world, and part of the reason why the category is so important is that others simply do not discuss it enough. But the twist here is a little different. It starts with Arizona HC Bruce Arians having been the QB coach for Manning in his first three NFL seasons. That matters, a little. But how about Cardinal assistant Tom Moore, who was Manning’s OC for 13 campaigns, and in fact was the only one he ever had in the NFL until he became a Bronco? That could matter a lot.
In a regular practice cycle this would be minimized. But with that added week, could there be an expectation that Moore and Arians have spent some of their time as defensive coaches? Is there anyone in the sport that knows Manning better than Moore, who was with him from his very first appearance at a Colts mini-camp? These edges may be subtle, but since they would not have been on the list of things the oddsmakers were thinking about when posting a line, and will not show up in any computer-generated ratings, they are worthy of attention. While trusting Drew Stanton as a road underdog in this price range brings its “Football Science” faults, there can be Under considerations in a game in which the Cardinals will not be in any hurry on offense, and their defense can throw enough wrinkles and talent, at Manning to keep him from his usual pace and efficiency.