Point Blank – September 30
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #4
The NFL Week that Was, and things you can incorporate into your own thought processes as the season unfolds…
Item: A Bridge(water) over Troubled Waters
The Before & After comparisons of the Flacons/Vikings on Sunday provides big-time storylines and fascinating questions. Answers may be more difficult to come by. With rookie Teddy Bridgewater making his first NFL start, and the Vikings without three Pro Bowlers (Adrian Peterson, Kyle Rudolph, Chad Greenway), plus another key cog in the OL (Robert Fusco), they became a major Play Against ticket for both the sharps and the squares. An opener of -3 found itself at -6 on game-day, and operators who still had -3 printed on their parlay cards were at risk of being over-loaded. Our friend Bob “and when the night is cloudy, there is still a light that shines on me” Scucci was even sweating out an Atlanta -2.5 on the Boyd Gaming parlay cards, which we will get to in a moment. All of those risk positions became magnified when the favorites had a good run in the early kickoffs, with Tampa Bay’s outright upset at Pittsburgh being about the only saving grace at the time.
Once the the game started, the result was stunning. When all of the grading is done Bridgewater directed an offense that turned in a performance that will rate among the best we will see all season – 41 points, 558 yards, no turnovers. It might have been even better had he not been injured late – on those last two FG drives the Vikings ran the ball 12 times, without attempting a pass. In the first half it was 351 yards on 35 snaps. What a cast it was, with Bridgewater seamlessly running an attack that brought 135 rushing yards from rookie RB Jerick McKinon, three TDs from Matt Asiata, and eight catches for 132 yards from Jarius Wright, all of those naturally career highs. The Vikings did not win by bringing a rookie QB along slowly; they won by attacking and being aggressive – Bridgewater was 8-12 for 163 yards on passes that traveled at least 10 yards down the field. That is quite a contrast to the fact that under Matt Cassel there had only been 11 such throws in the previous three games combined, with only one completion.
The question becomes how to react to it. It is understandable that the Minnesota players responded with such vigor to Bridegwater’s abilities, since he represents a genuine upside for the franchise. But it also matters that the Atlanta defense had no films to prepare for what they were going to face, and was at least a step behind all afternoon. The Vikings only get that particular advantage once. And how do the markets react, after there was so much money wagered against Minnesota on Sunday?
To try to make sense of this I decided to track Scucci down at the Orleans while that game was still going on, when Atlanta seemingly had turned the flow and grabbed the momentum with a 28-27 lead late in the third quarter. I wanted to check his pulse while “in the game”, considering how much money was riding. But when I called after the Falcons were making that brief surge a supervisor had said that Scooch had “just stepped out for a bit”. He thought I might be able to track him down somewhere else on the property, so forwarded my call to one of the heads of security. There was no further information available from that end, although immediately after they heard some loud cheering in the sports book (most likely coming from the swarm of Atlanta bettors), they saw someone that was the same height and body type as Scucci heading towards an exit, except that he was wearing an overcoat, with a trilby and dark glasses, also sporting a mustache. They thought it an unusual way of dressing for a warm afternoon, but let it go because it is Las Vegas, after all.
Eventually Scooch did resurface, after the Falcons had won and the house was back on top. “That game was our entire day. We knew it was going to be big early in the week. We put -2.5 on the parlay cards, so you could imagine how concerned we were. I don't think I am over-estimating when I say that nearly 50% of all our wagers yesterday included the Falcons game in some way.”
There were similar sentiments from Jay Kornegay, manning the controls at the Westgate Superbook – “The early money was on Atlanta, and that was sharp play. The public piled on due to the Falcons blowout over the Bucs the week before. It was a huge decision for the books, if not the biggest. The public had Atlanta tied into a lot of parlays, and being an afternoon game the liability piled up on the Falcons.”
But now what? How do any of us make sense of those offensive numbers? Fortunately on one side of the counter we can sit back and use Thursday night as an opportunity for the “Eye Test”, but Scucci and Kornegay lack that option. For them, the fact that Green Bay is involved does at least create an “anchor” for the game. First Scooch – “The Green Bay/Minnesota line was -9, prior to yesterday's games, and we are actually looking at 9.5 to 10. The public money was all over Green Bay yesterday, and they won easily, and that will be fresh in the public's minds … One last item: how often have we seen a replacement quarterback have a great first or even second game, only to come back to the reality of being a second string or rookie quarterback. Defenses figure out ways to confuse inexperienced quarterbacks, and it is tough for the young QB's to sustain that type of performance.” And Jay – “We don’t want to over-adjust or make a knee-jerk reaction, but it’s an adjustment. If the Falcons would have won this game, this would probably have been Green Bay -11.”
What was interesting in the early trading on the game was the amount of Under money (it got to as low as 46.5 in a key precinct before being redirected). Both teams won on Sunday by scoring points, not by making stops, and particularly make sure you have the proper appreciation for the scoreboard in Chicago - the Bears were only credited with 17 points, but they had 33 first downs and 496 yards, never punting. What had been one of the NFL's weakest rushing attacks ran through the Packers for 235 yards at 5.7 per attempt.
(FWIW: As an aside, if we see Scooch come to a Halloween party as Inspector Clouseau, we will have a better idea who was trying to sneak off the property on Sunday...)
Item – It’s Caldwell, not Schwartz, in Detroit
On Wednesday it will be time for “A Treatise on Trends”, the crack cocaine of sports betting. They take your money, create an artificial high that does not last very long, and far too often will have you looking into a mirror or a scoreboard regretting what you see. But first, a pair of particular examples to help set it up.
All during last week I kept reading written analysis, hearing audio takes, and watching talking heads saying pretty much the same thing across the Sports Mediaverse – the Lions were primed for another one of their “usual letdowns”, in a road game after beating Green Bay. That thinking found its way into the marketplace on Sunday morning, with a major move swinging the favorite’s role, and taking the Jets to as high as -2. Which was good for some of us…
Jim Caldwell is not Jim Schwartz. Using the past patterns from Schwartz to define the current team is a classic example of how some Trends can be utterly useless. But there is actually a little more to see here. Caldwell may not garner a lot of attention because of his demeanor, but he may be just what the doctor ordered for the Lions. A talented team did not develop any consistency under the mercurial leadership of Schwartz, under-achieving across several seasons. Now they are not just winning, but doing it the right way.
Here is what will not jump out at you from Sunday’s box score, though it should – no turnovers, and only five penalties for 33 yards. It was the kind of composed and methodical performance unknown from this team previously, but that is now three consecutive games of 40 penalty yards or less. Do not sleep on Caldwell, even though many seemingly do just that. And throw those damn pre-2014 Detroit trends out the window. More on that tomorrow…
Item: Tom Brady was terrible
Another prelude to Wednesday, which will need to include those brilliant long-term numbers of Brady and Bill Belichick when off of a loss, something discussed here earlier in the season (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1035720.aspx). The question is whether this current team is at a level at which those patterns are relevant. The answer for the offense from Monday night is that it was not.
I had to put an Under play onto the wrong side of the ledger after that result, and it comes in one of those frustrating dichotomies that makes football what it is – on a night in which the “root” was for an offense to be bad, the ticket actually turned because the offense was too bad. Kansas City scored 10 second-half points without needing a single offensive yard, and got another seven off of a nine-yard drive. It was not just a failure of Brady and the New England offense to move the ball, but rather those uncharacteristic giveaways that led to easy points that stand out. Because that is what this offense has not done in the past.
The Patriots failed both the stat test and the eye test. Brady was uncomfortable in the pocket, and many of his attempts to stretch the field were not even close to their intended receivers. He has completed 32 percent of throws more than 10 yards down the field, the lowest mark of any NFL starter. As a savvy competitor he will say the right things in practice this week, much as he did after that opening loss at Miami. The question is whether he can make the right things happen on the field, against a tough Cincinnati defense that also comes in fresh.
Item: The Eagle OL issues
The Philadelphia offense had zero points at San Francisco, and six punts. That pretty much sums up the day. Yes, they were deprived of opportunities, with those defensive and special teams scores taking away snaps. But when they did have the ball it was yet another horrific showing for the ground game, both when the team tried to run, and just as importantly, when they chose not to. That is what happens when you are down to Jason Peters as the only reliable member of the OL, and Peters was not at full health on Sunday. There have already been four different players at LG.
Chip Kelly was open about it afterwards - "We got whupped up front. We're not very good up front right now. We've got a lot of guys banged up. That's not an excuse. That's just the reality of it. Jason Peters is the only guy who's playing the position he started the season at." And he was open about it during the key juncture of the game, that late First-and-Goal setting when he chose passing plays on three of four snaps, the one run to LeSean McCoy gaining some ground, but not the end zone.
In a league currently without Adrian Peterson, McCoy is as good as any RB out there. But over the last two games he has carried the ball 29 times, and managed just 39 yards. That is an unsightly 1.3 per attempt, none going for more than nine yards. That is how bad the depleted OL is at this juncture. There is hope on the horizon, with Lane Johnson, who missed only one snap in all of 2013, being activated after his suspension was completed, but there will naturally be some questions about his conditioning. More from Kelly - “We haven’t seen him for a month. He told me he was at API in Dallas, working out. There were some other players there. He looked good. It’s just the unknown. I haven’t seen him in four weeks, so where’s he at? How does he process things?"
Sometimes a good offense having a bad game is a sign that a rebound is on the way. And sometimes it is a sign that there are issues. Right now that OL is indeed an issue. The Eagles are not the only good team facing that...
Item: The Chargers aren’t running well either
When San Diego could manage only 85 yards on 37 rush attempts at Buffalo last week, an anemic 2.3 per try, it did not automatically go down as a black mark. The Chargers played much of the game with a comfortable lead, and were working on game management. But when they could muster only 2.1 vs. Jacksonville it becomes more of an issue, especially with a caveat similar to Kelly’s decision to not run near the goal line in that turning point at San Francisco. The San Diego running attack was so out of sync on Sunday that even with a commanding lead in the second half, the Chargers opted to not run much at all.
Mike McCoy still had his offense managing the game, and getting the ball into the hands of the RBs for short gains that could keep a flow going – Donald Brown and Brandon Oliver caught eight passes for 68 yards. But they could not find a way to make something happen by handing the ball to one of them. So we can again credit McCoy and OC Frank Reich for being sharp, while at the same time focus on a genuine issue.
Philip Rivers and the offense got the ball late in the 3rd quarter up by 13, and when thoughts of running the ball to work the clock would usually begin, they attempted to pass on 11 of 13 plays, in a drive that ended with a FG. It was not until the final possession, when they were up 30-14 with 3:49 remaining, that they went straight to the ground for six plays. Until that possession, only 14 of the 55 snaps had been runs. And the only reason they got off six on that final possession was Gus Bradley calling all three of his timeouts despite being down by 16, a move not unimportant to those that wagered on the Total (Bradley’s TOs were what forced that final San Diego FG, swinging the result from Under to Over).
Prior to Sunday, the Jaguars had been allowing 160 rushing yards per game, at 4.7 per attempt. That tells us something about the Charger ground attack, and perhaps that they miss Ryan Matthews even more than expected, with Brown only checking in at 1.9 per attempt over 41 carries as his replacement the past two games.
Item: The Buffalo QB shuffle
I don’t get this one. Yes, EJ Manual has been a disappointment, especially on 3rd downs, where he rates dead last among qualifying QBs. But it is early in the season; the Bills are contenders because of the weaknesses across the rest of the AFC East; a mobile QB is needed with the Detroit pass rush on deck; and Kyle Orton is not an answer in waiting.
Here is the immediate problem – Orton did not join the team until August 30th. He did not expect to even be on an NFL roster this season, much less get a starting assignment, and did not play a down in the pre-season. Against that aggressive Lion defensive front there will be quick reads needed to get the ball out, and also some mobility in the pocket. Orton will be challenged to deliver either of those, given his lack of familiarity with both his teammates and the Buffalo offensive playbook. Is the timing meant to be a “crash course” for Orton, to better have him ready for that home division showdown vs. the Patriots next week? It would be difficult to ascribe that thought process to Doug Marrone, but not impossible. It is not easy to downgrade the Bills rating at QB off of the last two Manual performances, but for the specifics of the Sunday matchup, that may indeed be the case.
Item: The Raiders, and rock bottom
At least for Oakland the timing in firing Dennis Allen does not have to be questioned – with a week off before taking the field again there was some logic behind the move, bringing an opportunity for a new direction to be layered in, instead of rushed. Not that it will necessarily matter, because the Raiders have been so far from competing that 2014 can not be anything but a lost season.
Understanding just how bad they have been requires some added work, however - to develop the proper power rating, while also more accurately grading the performances of their opponents, you have to do some editing. Half of their points, and a big chunk of their yards, need to be taken with a grain of salt. Check out these late drives in games that had already been decided –
Week #1 – 6 plays, 73 yards, TD vs. the Jets
Week #2 – 13 plays, 83 yards, TD vs. the Texans
Week #4 – 9 plays, 90 yards, TD vs. the Dolphins
A team should never be rewarded for being bad, nor their opponents penalized for having been good. But that is what happens when those drives get added into the overall statistical mix. That will give you a better handle on their true current abilities, and also perhaps on why Allen may not be so disappointed in not having to coach the remaining 12 games. He will be on someone’s defensive staff next year, and at the age of 42 may still have a bright future, being relieved of the Oakland quagmire, one largely created by GM Reggie McKenzie, who will be the next to go.
Item: Owen Daniels quietly had a good game
Steve Smith garnered a lot of attention for his big showing against his former Panther teammates in Baltimore's 38-10 rout, and he earned the right to brag afterwards, after catching seven passes for 139 yards and a pair of TDs (and yes, that opening 61-yard score was a fluke that needs an * in your stat adjustments). But it was the much quieter four catches for 43 yards from Daniels that also carries significant meaning.
There was a major drop in Joe Flacco’s production when Dennis Pitta was injured LY. Enter Daniels, not only as insurance behind Pitta, but as someone who had been with new Baltimore OC Gary Kubiak for eight seasons in Houston, and could help the transition for the Ravens to those systems. On Sunday it was a smoothly-functioning offense, with 454 yards at 7.4 per play, and no turnovers or sacks. Daniels’ role was integral to that, even without making headlines – three of his receptions went for first downs, including conversions on 3rd-and-10 and 3rd-and-eight. He mattered, without much fanfare.