Point Blank – September 23
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #3
The NFL Week that Was, and things you can incorporate into your own thought processes as the season unfolds…
Item: Re-adjusting the Redskins
Speculation got answered by reality last week – could the Washington offense as constructed by Jay Gruden be genuinely as effective with Kirk Cousins at QB instead of Robert Griffin III, or perhaps even improve? It is not to say that Cousins is a better NFL prospect than Griffin, but rather that the Redskins did not exactly bring in the ideal head coach to develop an offense around their “franchise” QB. Before getting injured Griffin had not looked comfortable as a pocket passer, where his skill levels are only average by NFL standards, and opposing defenses were more than happy to have him try to beat them with his arm, being much obliged to the Washington self-containment of his other talents.
So fast forward to Sunday, and Cousins led the offense to 34 points and 511 yards. The first two drives were 82 yards in 11 plays for a TD, and 87 in 12 to the end zone again. Could anyone have expected the results to be as dramatic as they were? Yes, apparently many in the betting markets. The oddsmakers faced an awkward adjustment, largely because it was difficult to gauge the perception of the shift at QB by those with a seat on the exchange, and they had to go away from their own opinions a bit.
Jay Kornegay, the long-time Director for the Westgate Superbook, was succinct – “Cousins in our eyes improved the ranking of the Redskins, but only a half point.” And there were similar sentiments from Bob “You know I work all day, to get you money to buy you things” Scucci, Race and Sports Book Director for Boyd Gaming “I can't say that I was surprised to see the money come in on the Redskins. From the preseason, everyone noted that Cousins fit very well into the offensive system, and to many, looked every bit as effective as Griffin. So, we knew this line was a bit inflated. We kept this line high, however, because we get a ton of public money on the Eagles every week, at almost any number, and we wanted to slow that down.” So because public perception had to be dealt with, the Eagles were still opened at -6.5 at the Westgate Superbook the previous Sunday evening, and for a moment had even been beat up to -7.
That price came crashing down over the course of the week. The 6’s were gone by the end of the day on Friday, and at kickoff the Eagles had been driven down to -3.5 at Jay’s shop, with injuries to LB Michael Kendricks and OL Jason Kelce also playing a part in that movement. And the game result properly rewarded the bankroll of the Washington investors. Cousins was much more comfortable in this playbook than Griffin, getting the ball out to the point at which he was not sacked in 48 attempts.
Now it becomes time for the “eye test” on Thursday, as the Giants bring the opposition. There is a level of intrigue added because it will not be their first exposure to Cousins – he started against them in the 2013 finale, and was simply awful, a 19-49-169 with two INTs and three sacks in a 20-6 loss in the Meadowlands. But that was a different playbook, and an offensive huddle that did not include DeSean Jackson. So there will be plenty to see – Cousins is not going to be as good as he looked on Sunday, but there are quality weapons around him to build a legitimate attack. It will be an invaluable opportunity to set a much better power rating for the Redskins going forward.
(As an aside, Scucci actually having to pay out some parlay cards this week should be considered justice. After back-to-back major scores for the house on Weeks #1-#2, I was sent a video that someone had captured of Scooch and his supervisors watching part of last Monday’s Eagles/Colts game at Brendan’s Pub at the Orleans, just a short stroll from his office. They were clinking their glasses while loudly singing the following tune, in time to "99 Bottles of Beer on the Wall" –
"A thousand dead parlay tickets in the can
A thousand in the can
We shred the whole stash, and keep all the cash
A thousand dead tickets in the can"
As such, they deserved to lose this week.)
Item: Those 49er Second Half disasters
When Larry Fitzgerald lost a fumble at the San Francisco 9-yard line in the 4th quarter on Sunday, it brought two rare measurements into play, one expected, the other most certainly unexpected. For Fitzgerald it was the rarity of losing only his fifth fumble in 874 career plays in which he caught a pass or ran from scrimmage. But now the shocker – by escaping near the shadows of their own goal line, the 49er defense ended a streak of six consecutive TD drives by the opposition in the second half. And that leads us to perhaps the single most remarkable statistic from the early NFL season:
Second Half Scoring:
Opponents 52 San Francisco 3
The 49ers have built a reputation under Jim Harbaugh for playing solid fundamental football, relying on physical play at the line of scrimmage and keeping mistakes to a minimum. When you do that it makes you a candidate to be successful in the second half of games, wearing down the opposition and taking advantage of their mistakes. But so much for that reputation. Now those late-game collapses are something that we need to make some sense of.
The opening salvos have actually been quite good – San Francisco is the only team to have scored on its first possession in all three games, and the 49ers have gone to the locker room at halftime ahead by a collective 59-16. But instead of wearing opponents down and controlling the flow, it has been an entirely different kind of football on exhibit. With a 14-6 lead at halftime on Sunday, and the ball to begin the 3rd quarter, there was an expectation that they would work their power ground game and establish a tone, with proper clock management also reducing the opportunities for the inexperienced Drew Stanton to mount a comeback. Yet the San Francisco RBs got two carries the rest of the way, one for Frank Gore and one for Carlos Hyde. That duo was only handed the ball on nine of 63 snaps in the entire game.
Dial it back to the previous Sunday night vs. Chicago, and a 20-7 lead got away via a pair of Colin Kaepernick INTs, made possible because they did not pound away vs. a weak rush defense to manage the game, and also because the Bears scored TDs on all three of their second half possessions (not counting two kneel-downs on the final possession). On Sunday, Stanton marched the Cardinals 85 and 66 yards on their first two second-half drives, before Fitzgerald’s fumble on a second-and-goal play. On the ensuing drive there was the potential for yet another TD, with a first down at the San Francisco 11-yard-line at the 2:00 Warning. But Bruce Arians made the savvy football decision to have Stanton kneel three times, reducing the clock to 0:29 before a Chandler Catanzaro FG moved the lead to nine points and clinched the outcome.
It is understandable that Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman are excited about having their WR corps all healthy and available, and to design around the athleticism of Kaepernick. But in changing the offense it has altered the game flows, and by not working the clock in the second half the defense is facing more serious challenges than in the past. But that is still only part of the equation; the other is the inexcusable lack of discipline from the players. They have already been flagged 36 times for 303 yards, and have allowed 17 opposing first downs via penalty, the latter a staggering count through only 12 quarters of play.
The 49ers have a winning legacy, and they also opened 1-2 LY before turning things around, so they will talk a good game and say all of the right things. The difference this time is that some of the issues on the field are genuine, and more difficult to correct.
Item: The Cowboys rode their Horse(s)
The Dallas offense has been less than the sum of its parts for several seasons, and when that happens the fault can more often than not be found in what happens before the snap, and not necessarily the execution of the plays. It is up do the designs of the playbook to maximize the pieces to the puzzle, and that has not been a strength of this organization. The Cowboys have run the ball well since DeMarco Murray came on board, they just have not run it enough. That may be changing.
To use 2013 as an example, Dallas was #5 on the Football Outsiders tables in rushing offense, but just #14 overall. There were 631 passing plays, but only 336 on the ground. This season opened with more of the same – Murray had a solid 118 yards at 5.4 per carry vs. the 49ers in the opener, but only 23 of the 63 offensive snaps were running plays. Of the 40 pass plays there were three interceptions and three sacks, leading to a 28-17 defeat. But on Week #2 the opening sequence against Tennessee may have been just what the doctor ordered – the Titans were the ones making the mistakes, creating an early Dallas lead, and it was the run game that took center stage. This time Murray carried 29 times for 167 yards, Lance Dunbar also got 11 attempts, and it was sound game management in a 26-10 victory.
That could have all been blown away by the strong winds of an early 21-0 St. Louis lead on Sunday, the kind of deficit that would have had past Dallas offenses bypassing the running chapters of the playbook completely. But it did not happen. On the first possession after falling down 21-0, a critical juncture, the Cowboys ran Murray five times 37 yards, and aided by a pass interference penalty it was 21-7. Back in the game again. They never lost their focus – Murray carried the ball on 24 of their 53 snaps, and that sense of purpose helped to turn that 21-0 deficit into a 34-31 win.
It will be important to continue to measure this game flow going forward, especially against Drew Brees and a New Orleans offense that absolutely destroyed them LY. With Murray being a Pro Bowl talent at RB, and with an OL anchored by three recent first-round draft picks (Tyron Smith in 2011, Travis Frederick in 2013, and now rookie Zack Martin), not only is the talent emerging to control a game overland, but it is also the best way to keep one of the league’s worst defenses off the field. Murray’s post-game take from Sunday should resonate – “It’s trust. They trust the offensive line, they trust myself to give us a few yards and get stuff going. That’s what it’s all about.” They just have to stick to it, and after only having three penalties for 15 yards at St. Louis, there is an added residual bonus to slowing a game down. A team with a recent legacy of being sloppy and unfocused may be finding a needed sense of direction.
Item: The Detroit DL has a monster day
The Lions entered Sunday’s key division showdown with Green Bay already thin in the secondary, with Bill Bentley and Nevin Lawson on the IR, and James Ihedigbo and Cassius Vaughn also sidelined. Don Carey was in the lineup replacing Ihedigbo, but after scooping up a fumble and returning it 40 yards for a TD and an early 7-0 lead, his day soon ended with a hamstring injury. Midway through the 1st quarter, MLB Stephen Tulloch, who had not missed a game in his career, suffered a knee injury on a silly post-play celebration, and is now on the IR. It meant a long stint with some patches in the back lines of the defense, against Aaron Rodgers and all of his weapons. And it made the performance of the Lion DL one of the better showings from a group we will see all season.
The Green Bay offense drove 59 yards for a TD in the first series that Detroit was without Tulloch and Carey. The rest of the game the Packers were held to 11 first downs and 164 yards, not producing a single play of 20 yards or more. And it was the talented, but often under-achieving Lion DL, that stepped up and made it happen. Perhaps something could have been sensed before the game, when they came out as a four-man group instead of being introduced as individuals, something they had also done prior to facing the Packers at home LY. And on the field that Suh-Ansah-Fairley-Jones quartet was simply dominant.
There were challenges laid out to this group, under new HC Jim Caldwell and DC Teryl Austin. Fairley was even demoted to second-string early in training camp, and clearly got the message. Now some major individual egos are beginning to mesh as a unit, and one of the key takeaways is their use of “we” after the win. From Suh – “I think we have an opportunity to dominate every particular game. At the end of the day, regardless of who we have in front of us - Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton - we should be successful.” And Fairley – “The only people who can block us is us. That’s how we feel, with the way we work in practice and the work we put in throughout the week. Can’t no one block us but us.”
This is still a patchwork secondary, and Tulloch will be missed. But what Caldwell bringing the necessary leadership and discipline, and Austin better designs, this front four has a huge upside, which is a genuine issue for both power ratings and individual game matchups.
Vegas: Another Monday with the Review-Journal
As noted last week, part of the football season ritual is getting out to lunch on Monday with the Las Vegas Review-Journal, which for all of its other faults may well be the best sports section in North America in terms of recapping the Sunday NFL action. It is not just the content, but also a terrific layout, so the focus for those Monday’s is not just quality cuisine, but also the proper setting to spread out the box score page and begin treating it like a crossword puzzle in reverse, gleaning questions from the answers.
So if one is in the process of “Praying for Winners”, what could be a better setting than a church pew? You can have just that, and a big table to spread things out, at the Cornish Pasty Company, in Commercial Center (953 East Sahara). The concept is the brainchild of Dean Thomas, who grew up eating traditional pasty’s in Cornwall (think "meat pie", although they have a variety of vegetarian, and even vegan, offerings), before finding his way to the Phoenix area and opening his first shop near ASU in Tempe. Thomas created that ideal blend of adhering to tradition in quality control, and taking the time to make a proper crust for each pasty, but he has added modern touches with a long list of combinations across many food cultures. It is comfort food taken to a higher level, and in the evenings you can wash one down with a Firestone Walker Black Rye IPA, this being one of the few places in Las Vegas where it can be found on draft (though at 8.3% abv it is not the ideal companion to box score study in the daytime).