Point Blank – September 11
Football #101 – Regarding Letdowns, and USC
It is time for another chapter in our series on letting the sport of football work for you in the bankroll-building process, and there is a specific application that provides much food for thought on this week’s board.
Fresh off of a key win at Stanford that puts them in the National Championship picture, the USC Trojans are traveling across the nation to face Boston College, and finding themselves squarely in the sights of the betting markets. There has been plenty of money in play against Steve Sarkisian and his team, with as low as -16.5 available in a couple of key precincts, and it has been predominantly been driven by the notion of a Trojan “letdown”, Sarkisian as Odysseus for a projected troubled journey. But to best go forward in terms of understanding how the concept plays out, it is first time to take a step back.
Joe Paterno and his Penn State legacy are back in the news this week, with the NCAA lifting the remaining Bowl and Scholarship restrictions from the University. And while the debates may run forever about the merit of those sanctions, there can at least be something gained here from remembering back to Paterno’s savvy as a football coach.
Back in the early 1980’s Paterno was asked why young athletes would suffer a letdown, when they have an entire week to get themselves recharged for their next game. The answer was an important foundation in my own handicapping processes, and should become one in yours. The letdowns, he said, do not happen on the field the following Saturday. Instead they take place when the players are watching films of their opponent on Monday, and not practicing as sharply as they should during the week. Take that to heart – while the scoreboards do not activate until the opening kickoff, in reality the next game begins the moment the current one ends. What takes place in the film room, and at practice, is a significant part of that game, but it is one that we are not able to measure with the same precision as the actual plays on the field.
Paterno’s take was that he knew early in the week when his team was going to struggle. He could see at a Tuesday practice that the defense was not reacting properly to formations run by the scout team, despite the fact that those formations were in the Monday film study. It was hard for his players to get excited about watching Temple, when they had just beaten Ohio State. So while the players get out of bed with plenty of energy on Saturday morning, the lesser focus during the week reduces what those energies can accomplish.
Because of that, make the Tactical Adjustment from one game to the next a key part of your process. If a team is off of a big win, and also has to face an entirely different style of opponent next, they are more vulnerable. But that is not USC this week.
The setting for the following week also matters. Lethargy is more likely to set in when facing a weak opponent at home, rather than on the road, because the players do not travel, and spend more of the week reading their press clippings and being slapped on the back by fellow students. But that is not USC this week.
When viewing a follow-up game that would seem to bring letdown potential, it is also important to examine all aspects of the setting, and not just the opponent. If the game is not being televised, if the scoreboard is not of much consequence, or if there is a bigger game on deck, it is even easier for a team to go flat during those early practices. But that is not USC this week.
Instead, what is USC this week? A prime-time game on national television, in front of the ESPN cameras. The scoreboard absolutely matters, because one of the perennial Pac 12 complaints is that the conference gets short-changed by the national media, because so many of their games are played on Saturday nights when many from other time zones are not following. Sarkisian is well aware of that – exept for a one-year stint as the Oakland Raiders QB coach, he has been in the Pac 12 since 2001. That increases the importance of this setting, actually making it a showcase opportunity. Who do the Trojans face next? Each other in practice, with next Saturday a bye. And in terms of tactical adjustment, having just faced Stanford is actually among the ideal preparations for the power-based Boston College offense. In other words, the formula for Sarkisian’s team to suffer a letdown lacks almost all of the key ingredients. Those trying to feed off of the notion may find themselves with a bowl of rather thin soup.
Have the markets opened an opportunity to actually play on USC by lowering the tariff? The gap in talent was most evident in a 35-7 Trojan home win LY that was easier than even that one-sided scoreboard could show – it was 8.4 yards per play vs. only 3.7, but the Eagles were saved by the fact that there were only 112 offensive snaps in the game. The USC pace is entirely different now, and one could make a case that if the starting lineups were to go 22 vs. 22 in a 40-yard dash, the only certain Boston College win would be at QB, Tyler Murphy over Cody Kessler. But even winning the battle of the QB legs brings an issue that is unfavorable for the Eagles.
The Boston College “offense” was worse than the numbers will show vs. Pittsburgh last Friday. The “” are used because a lot of the Eagle production did not necessarily come from design. Steve Addazio wants to power up and run the ball between the tackles, but the 16 carries by his RB trio of Myles Willis, Tyler Rouse and Jon Hillman only generated 39 yards, with no carry going for longer than six. It was a 51-yard run by Murphy on a broken play, and a 13-yard reverse by WR Sherman Alston, that made the rushing count look respectable in the box score. Meanwhile Murphy was only 10-28 through the air, with a pair of INTs. That closing 64-yard TD drive on the final possession? Murphy carried the ball five times for 51 yards, none of them designed runs, but rather all called passing plays that broke down, and he scrambled out of the pocket. He could do that vs. a slow Pittsburgh defense; USC brings much more speed.
There are going to be some prime letdown spots on the board this season, but trying to fit USC into those parameters this week might be folly.
Marketology…
There was an interesting move in the marketplace yesterday, the Total for tonight’s Houston/Brigham Young clash falling to as low as 56.5. Was this a group making a genuine Under investment, or trying to build a better marketplace to play Over later today? With Totals, especially in the early season, it is not just a matter of getting lines down to certain numbers, it is also about being able to play higher limits. As such, there are attempts to create what appears to be two-way action, which enables larger wagers to be made.
Here is a focus point to consider. The Battle of the Cougars (forget your fantasies about where that title might lead – this is Provo, Utah tonight) features two of the fastest tempo teams in the nation. In many of their games they are trying to speed the pace against opponents that want to slow them down, but when it was fast vs. fast in their hook-up at Houston LY the numbers were remarkable. How about 93 points, 191 offensive snaps, 64 first downs and 1,164 yards?
BYU got off 86 snaps at Texas on Saturday, one of the highest counts we are ever going to chart against a Charlie Strong team. And while Grambling/Houston did not generate much electricity in terms of pacing, note that it was a Gentleman’s 4th quarter from the coaches in that 47-0 rout – there were only 23 plays in the final stanza, 22 of them runs.
Was that a Wednesday investment, or a false move? Today’s trading will be interesting to watch.
In the Sights…
Chris Sale is going off at just a little more than the home field advantage vs. Scott Kazmir in Chicago this afternoon. It shows how markets can lag in September, with full-season numbers an anchor that can keep current realities from sailing at their proper course.
Kazmir’s decline was brought up here a while ago (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1014958.aspx), and things have not been any better for him. At the All Star break he was working to a 2.38, holding hitters to a .205/.259/.409 slash line. Since then it has been a 5.96, and the corresponding .290/.362/.409. His K-per-9 of 8.3 at the break has fallen to 6.0, while BB-per-9 is up from 2.1 to 3.7. There are 132 pitchers that have worked at least 40 IP since the break; the Kazmir ERA is #129, and his xFIP is #113.
Meanwhile Chris Sale literally “sails” on. In five of nine starts since the break he has allowed one run or none, and it has been 81 K vs. 50 hits allowed over that span. His post-break ERA rates #13, and xFIP #4. This is a showcase game for him in the Cy Young chase, and he gets the benefit of coming off of 98 pitches in his last outing, his lowest count since May.
So if Sale vs. Kazmir is short, is that telling us there is a team mismatch? Hardly. The A’s have stumbled to a 7-16 tune on the road since the break, being held to one run or none 10 times. Many times we take advantage of contenders being over-priced as favorites in September; in this instance the role is different, but the market error remains big enough to exploit.