Guys..I saw almost 6000 reads through the Trap Line play I posted Tuesday on Colorado / Kansas City. Kind went viral on here with much debate and sarcasm..and then off on a tangent.
Summation:
I said the line was basically fishy and stunk to high heaven and the only play was on Colorado or nothing simply because it was so off the mark in my opinion and KC should have been a favorite, and that the oddsmakers were baiting you to take KC, and I said to fade the Royals and play Colorado. (sums up the take basically) There was more than 1 reason to take Colorado of course, but the whole deal was to show that you can see a line and figure out how oddsmakers from time to time try and bait squares to take a line and bet it, sharps tend to step back and take a second look and say "wait a minute here"...something smells like a dog turd and it is this line! Those of you who do not understand gambling, bear this in mind, you are not betting into games, you are betting into a number.....understanding the line and certain situations that come up around lines takes experience, I was simply sharing that.
IT WAS A FREE PLAY - and it won, exactly what I said would happen.
Sometimes with EXPERIENCE you see things pop up from time to time and a "too good to be true scenario" is a learning tool for novice bettors to take notice of....and more times than not, if you take a look and see these trap lines that make you really scratch your head and refrain from taking "a gift of a line" you will save yourself money. My intention.... in a very public forum with many novice bettors looking for tips and advice was simply to point this out and make an example out of it.
No algorithms, no deep database, no intrinsic theory, no trends and records going back 10 years.....just a situation I have seen and learned from through experience that I felt had merit in a small play for FREE and was a good example for those out there who seek to learn.
I understand guys like Lloyd Christmas and Shay, Madman Producer and others will chime in and want in depth stuff and ect...and get into friendly debates on capping approaches...which is fine ..I am not catering to "Sharps" in here as much as I am just putting out some items like the referenced play above that I felt someone who is new at this, or is looking solely for free plays with a small explanation to learn from could possibly benefit from my experience and make a winning wager at no cost to them. THAT'S IT!
Just an FYI - Good luck in MLB and NFLX over the weekend. I will be at LVH Contest deal Friday Night so if you are in Vegas and there please say hello.
EARLY BIRD NCAA PACKAGE IS UP and won my last 3 NFLX Plays and have a nice double header tonight and 3 pack on Saturday.