POINT BLANK – August 14
The Strasburg Variations
No, you are safe to plug in here – this is not going to be a take on the career of Charles Munch. Instead it is time to delve into one of those key betting market aspects of “Buying Low” on a stock that is falling out of favor. The question today is if is time to begin playing Stephen Strasburg in road games.
When Strasburg takes the hill against the Mets he will be sporting a 1-8/5.25 on the road this season, and a 4-13/4.84 over the past two campaigns. During the same span he has gone 12-6/2.04 at home. And while that discrepancy will have many in the marketplace wanting to play against him, especially those that have been riding the fade train down this track, when you have been around the game long enough, the ability to buy in on a high-level talent that has underachieved to an extreme brings a certain enticement. It is not just about winning a bet, but about catching a longer-term correction, which can fill the pocket with multiple tickets. So let’s get to work, because in this instance the decision making process requires seeing beyond some clouds.
The first step is to see how much of the performance gap can be attributed to the ballpark. In truth, not much shows. While Strasburg has dealt to those extreme splits the past two seasons, for all other National pitchers it has only been 3.29 Home vs. 3.51 Away. The gap between Strasburg and the others at home brings logic – he is better than the collective abilities of the other Washington pitchers, though perhaps not quite as wide as those numbers show. But why would his allowance on the road be 38 percent higher than that of his teammates?
If you want to play on Strasburg, you hope to find some bad luck involved here, or “Baseball Being Baseball” (at some point you will get accustomed to BBB substituted for that). His BABIP on the road this season is .352, and only three pitchers at 100 IP or more are higher overall in that category (Mike Minor, Ricky Nolasco and Colby Lewis). Another culprit has been the gopher ball, with 11 in 70 1/3 IP on the road, vs. seven in 86 IP at home. The gap in the rate is more telling, with 10.4 percent of his fly-balls allowed leaving the park at home, vs. 18 percent in road games.
Let those HR rates sink in a bit. The league is at a 9.6 percent rate in HR/FB ratio this season. When a guy with good stuff is seeing his pitches find the seats at nearly double that it is straining credibility, and calls more for regression than a continuance. To understand how much that gap in the HR rate has impacted Strasburg’s bottom line, his road xFIP is a 3.05, more than two full runs below his ERA, and a number that would rate him #15 overall among all starters this season. That appears to be ammunition for the “Buy Now” argument.
But now the problem. In all sports, and in fact across just about all endeavors, results impact attitudes, regardless of whether there were some flukes involved. And this is the conundrum with Strasburg right now – have the road performances gotten into his head? It is his lack of confidence in attacking the strike zone from opposing mounds that is worrisome. Over the past two seasons, Strasburg has allowed 1.6 BB/9 in home games, but 3.4 on the road. That is genuinely troubling, particularly because as the negative road results mount the control issue has gotten worse – it has been 3.9 BB/9 over his L5 starts in the role, compared to 0.8 over his L5 at home.
So there are genuine clouds on the Strasburg road horizon. His stuff should be far too good for those patterns to continue, and we can confidently wager that the HR/FB rate will regress. That makes a “buy” tempting. But it will be savvy to proceed with caution until we see him confidently throw strikes when his personal game begins in the bottom of the first, instead of the top. The gap in his control rates the past two seasons, and in particular the recent spike, are a sign that his psyche may have been too damaged by the results to call for a correction just yet
In the sights, Part I…
Sometimes supposed battles for the QB rotations are merely a way for a coach to motivate a veteran to play hard, while holding on to a job that really is already his. It is a different story in Chicago, where the Bears have a genuine contest for the #2 spot between Jordan Palmer and Jimmy Clausen. Marc Trestman will give Clausen the #2 slot tonight, with Palmer following, flip-flopping the rotation used vs. the Eagles last week. And so far Trestman likes what they have shown - “You see it every day out here … They’re both making plays. They’re competing. I’ve talked to both of them that nothing’s set in stone from last week. We grade them every day. We’re watching all the tape. We’re making the corrections with each of them. It’s still a competition, and they know it. We’re repping them that way.”
Palmer and Clausen combined for 15-24-189 vs. Philadelphia, with three TDs and only one INT. QB competitions do not get decided by watching the participants hand the ball off, so as that situation heats up, Trestman may be even more aggressive with his play calling this evening. Given that the Jaguars are bringing an intensified offensive rotation (Chad Henne and 1st team offense get the entire first half, with Blake Bortles slated for the rest of the game and no plans for a #3 to appear), the dynamics call for a loose flow in Chicago this evening. Expect 43’s to become common in the marketplace.
In the sights, Part II…
Alfredo Simon went into the All Star break with a 12-3/2.70 that was among the biggest surprises of the MLB first half. Since then it has been a dismal 0-4/4.78, with the Reds going 0-5 in his starts, losing by a combined 17 runs. Have the wheels come off?
Here are the keys. First is a natural fatigue issue – Simon was already at a career-high for both number of starts, and innings pitched, at the break. But even more is “BBB” – the sport had been awfully kind to him through early July, but what it gives it all too often takes away. At the break, Simon’s BABIP was .232 and his LOB% 85.1. No full-time starter in the sport had such good fortune, and the impact of those categories helped to land a career journeyman in the All Star game. Since then those categories have come down to earth (.307 and 70.4), while the toil of the innings has also impacted his control – from a 2.2 BB/9 per-break to 4.1 afterwards.
When Simon takes the mound at Coors Field this evening his full-season numbers will show a solid 12-7/3.08. That is a perilous measurement to use. Of the 119 pitchers with at least 100 IP, his .247 BABIP still rates #4, and the 81.2 LOB% is #9. His placement on those two tables is worth about a full run of ERA, perhaps even a bit more, and it is likely that things get worse for him down the stretch, not better.