POINT BLANK – August 12
Now About Those Pre-Season Totals…
If I said that there was money “all Over the place” for Totals during the first week of the NFL pre-season, many of you would already know the specific reference. There was more fresh investment capital than I have ever seen for those openers, keeping the screen flashing steadily, and it was predominantly an Over parade. As a result those lines reached plateaus a few switchbacks above the corresponding games of previous seasons, ultimately creating value opportunities at the peak points to go against several of the moves. And when the counting was done, you could have turned in a 13-4 by playing every one of the games Under.
But don’t get carried away with that.
Why did so much money show? There was a consensus in some sophisticated handicapping circles that the new rules de-clawing pass defense would lead to a scoring spike, faster than the oddsmakers could adjust for it, and there were wheelbarrow races to get to the windows first. Yet what was the net result? The 17 scoreboards (Hall of Fame + Week #1) registered an average of 35.6 points per game. The same cycle over the two previous two seasons? How about 35.8
But don’t get carried away with that, either.
Time for some truth - these were not the same games playing close to their traditional norms. Those that were banking on a flag-fest did not get the money, but to a degree they were actually on the money. Which leads to a takeaway that renders the 35.6 ppg as being largely “noise”, in the grand scheme.
Here is what does matter. Across the opening weekend of the 2012 and 2013 pre-seasons, the 34 games averaged 11.9 penalties, for 96.4 yards. But through the first 17 games of 2014, it has been 17.7 penalties for 140.9 yards. That is a staggering increase. It just did not impact the scoreboards nearly as much as it could have.
As one would expect, most of the surge in penalties tied directly to the pass defense rules – there have already been 95 accepted penalties for defensive holding, illegal contact or pass interference. And keep in mind that all of those flags have come after a couple of weeks of training camp, when teams had been preparing their defenders for those new rules interpretations.
The frustration of Giant coach Tom Coughlin, after seeing his team penalized 11 times in pass coverage already (two were declined), speaks volumes - "Oh, it is a big point of emphasis. Look around the league ... There is no contact allowed at all. You bump into each other shoulder-to-shoulder when you turn and run down the field, it is called a penalty. That is an issue. We are going to have to do a better job of coaching it.”
Our task, of course, is to get ahead of the curve in projecting what happens next. In Week #2 expect the penalty counts to be above the previous standards again, but not by the rate of the openers. Now that the teams have had a chance to see those rules in action in front of live officials, they can do a better job of making adjustments. But that is only one side of the equation. The other is more subtle, but significant.
That key question from the other side will be how many offensive coordinators are going to be aggressive in trying to create those penalty situations. It is something for the “eye test” as you watch the games this week, and will be a particularly interesting storyline, with the better QB/WR combinations now taking the field in earnest.
In the sights…
Did the Angels rush C. J. Wilson back off of the DL because of their pursuit of the A’s? In his two starts since returning they have been out-scored 17-3, and he has been tagged for 10 ER over seven IP. The struggle to find his command has been prominent, with only 85 of 150 pitches finding the strike zone. At this point it may also be more than a physical issue – he dealt to a 10.26 ERA over his four starts before going on the DL, yet came away with a 1-0 personal line (three ND’s) through those games because the Angel offense plated 27 runs. It is rare that you find someone struggling so badly in this price range. While journeyman Jerome Williams is off of the worst start of his career, which is saying something, given the “dirty laundry” list, he can bring a little confidence, having worked to a career 12-11/3.71 from this mound (he was with the the Angels from 2011-13).
For your files…
Toronto’s Drew Hutchison has thrown 105 pitches or more six times this season. In the follow-up start he has been rocked to a 1-5/8.00 tune, compared to 7-5/3.76 in all other games.