Lloyd Christmas said:
I have it too but I don't think it's in there. If Wong has the middle percentages you should be able to calculate half win value. Also, make sure not to use broad statements like something is worth 50 cents because the +125 to -125 is 11% and -150 to -200 is 6.7%
Don’t think it is in Conquering Risk either. According to Wong, for a 16-game season, the probability of 0.5 middle for an “Average Team” is 9.8. I don’t know how you would calculate that into a half win value. Any clue how that would be done?
Excellent point about exercising caution when using broad statements. Not sure how they came up with 50-cents as being the estimate; have heard more than one person for multiple years claim that is the going rate and never heard any caveats to it. It is an inherited perspective so it would be great if we achieved some clarity on this.
In Danny’s example, 120 to -130 is 11% and -145 to 105 is 10.4% so it seems that U8 120 would still be the optimal play?