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Hello Again
ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1116
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Yes you're guaranteed nothing but in theory it gives you a slightly better chance then most of the field. I would love to give this a go. Also it will be interesting to see how the 5 biggest discrepancies on the sheet every week come out % wise and see where it places on the leaderboard.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB6166248.03763.00
NBA3645044.44-1335.00
NHL2321052.27254.00
Toofdoc
Joined: 02/01/2011
Posts: 5052
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Top 150 Contributor

Lloyd Christmas

Yes but theoretically if you select 53% sides as opposed to 50%, you still need a lot of variance to go your way, but you have a 3% head start

That's where what I learn from you mixes with the handicapping skills of my partner.  The line moves are a factor but not a "blind" follow in the contest.  Sample size of 85 games a season is not enough to satisfy even the laziest math guy. I also have a "Toofdoc theory" that the line move could be from the public pushing money and I don't want to be on that side and will bet that the public side hits less than 50%.  If the public hits at 47% which I think is a very generous guess based on overall records of contest entries, then your 3% advantage in the line move only gets you back to 50%. 

The Wednesday line posted for the contest is a line that the casinos(even your beloved Pinny) was willing to accept wagers on and I rarely see middle opportunities in the NFL.  Just pick the winner!  

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ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1116
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

Probably a discussion for a different thread but it would horrify me to think that public money moves lines.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB6166248.03763.00
NBA3645044.44-1335.00
NHL2321052.27254.00
Toofdoc
Joined: 02/01/2011
Posts: 5052
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

ShayMonue

Probably a discussion for a different thread but it would horrify me to think that public money moves lines.

I can't think of valid argument that would suggest the public doesn't move lines. 

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ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1116
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

Toofdoc

ShayMonue

Probably a discussion for a different thread but it would horrify me to think that public money moves lines.

I can't think of valid argument that would suggest the public doesn't move lines. 

Over here you could take a million on one side and move the line the other way. Liabilities are never factored into the line.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB6166248.03763.00
NBA3645044.44-1335.00
NHL2321052.27254.00
Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5185
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Top 150 Contributor

I could be wrong but I believe the NFL is the only US sport where public money outweighs professional money.  It's extremely rare to see the number on a very public, heavily backed team to not go up on game day.  The is magnified even more on Sunday and Monday night.

It's not as bad with the sharper or middle of the road books, but the very square shops like SIA and Sportsbook just take off when those high profile teams are playing.  It's not at all uncommon to see

CRIS

Bills +7 -115

Pats -7 -105

Sportsbook

Bills +7 +105

Pats -7 -125

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1116
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

That just does not happen over here. The lines will move sync with the exchanges and solid book more times then not. You'll find the odds bad number but very view. Any sportsbook manager moving lines on public money should be sacked!

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB6166248.03763.00
NBA3645044.44-1335.00
NHL2321052.27254.00
Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5185
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

ShayMonue

That just does not happen over here. The lines will move sync with the exchanges and solid book more times then not. You'll find the odds bad number but very view. Any sportsbook manager moving lines on public money should be sacked!

Just playing devils advocate here.  If you know your clientele doesn't know the difference, and you have a 50/50 proposition, wouldn't you rather have +125 on the side you are exposed on and -105 on the other as opposed to +110/+110?

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Toofdoc
Joined: 02/01/2011
Posts: 5052
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

ShayMonue

Toofdoc

ShayMonue

Probably a discussion for a different thread but it would horrify me to think that public money moves lines.

I can't think of valid argument that would suggest the public doesn't move lines. 

Over here you could take a million on one side and move the line the other way. Liabilities are never factored into the line.

I thought you bet the market? The market is all the people betting and since less than 5% can win consistently I would say the "public" moves the market. If you think a sports book is going to just keep taking one sided action then you are not thinking clearly.  Even the "sharps" only hit at a 55% clip so the book would still have a 45% chance of losing.

I think the real sharps are the ones who set the opening lines and expose the books to millions and do a pretty good job. The "sharps" see the line is moving and jump on at a stale book at the opener and that # becomes more valuable the farther the closer moves away......that's where the math stops.   You've let the public add value to your position that was close to a 50/50 shot to begin with.

I think there are so many "line move followers" now that the lines get pushed by the "public sharp followers" and the books know they can manipulate the betting pattern by creating a perceived "sharp" move.  I would still be interested in seeing if comptrbob tracked the results of using the stalest lines for the contest

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shackfu99
Joined: 11/01/2011
Posts: 2823
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Top 200 Contributor

I would still be interested in seeing if comptrbob tracked the results of using the stalest lines for the contest

I think he did? I will look for it tonight.

Gangster dolphins
Marine biologists studying Australian dolphins discovered that the mammals form complex hierarchies within their pods in order to attack other groups. Some individuals serve as fighters. Others serve as liaisons to go out and recruit new members. These "intricate webs" are rare in the animal kingdom, says Virginia Morell at Wired, and strikingly reminiscent of "the Mafia."

I blame Snoop Dog.

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