purks said:
If it's +EV fire away
As an example, I didn't fire on -320 Over 9.5 rounds in the Pac/Bradley fight but took Pac by Decision +100. It turned out to be -EV (I know bc I lost money) as I also played the Draw and Pacquiao W in Rounds 10-12 which was +2200 and +1000, respectively around that.
I know the term "positive expected value", but I don't exactly know what it is or how to recognize it just yet, even after 2 years on this site.
[/quote]The no vig is a simple formula to figure out the overround. Use the Pinny line as a fair base. *Although I would like to know how the exchange people view it. But that is for another debate.
Lets look at a match up in the Masters today. Pinny line Spieth +117 vs Watson -132. This gives us a no vig of +123.48/-123.48. So we know Pinny has about a 6% hold. So now go shopping. Remember lots of out's are a must. 5D has Spieth +149/Watson -169. Instant +Ev on Spieth.
Oh and here is the EV formula. E(X) = x1p1 + x2p2 + x3p3 + . . . + xnpn.