Re: ?for the handicappers {pros and nonpros}

to u handicappers out there, there is  something i have been wondering. is there more to being a succesul handicapper then just a good philosophy or a good system? is there a certain feel, or a sixth sense so to say? if there is, does it come with experience, can it be learned, or some guys just have and some dont. will u go against your system beacause of this instinct? i believe there is a feel or instinct that makes u succesful guys who u are. if there is lol i know i dont have it.  or is this something i have just conjured up in my own head? and it is just a good system that is what wins. 

We all have our systems..different ones work for different guys.  Marc Lawerence is a trend guy, I am not...I am a situational analysis guy.

Some guys put out 5 games on a card, I am a low volume guy.

Some guys spread it all over the place on Saturday NCAA, I tend to specialize in 3 or 4 conference, Big 12, Big 10, Mountian West SEC....

Its all about the flavor of the type of capper you are looking for and want to become.

ONE POINT:  "Instinct". you mentioned this.....I do not go with gut feelings...not when I am gambling others peoples money...BUT I WOULD SAY THIS...There are times I take games that may fall intoi the EXPERIENCE CATEGORY.  Doing this 17 years you see set up lines or line shifts that from EXPERIENCE tell you the more than likely way to go.  THAT IS A TRAIT THAT CANNOT BE TAUGHT, BUT AQUIRED WITH TIME. 

 1. Realize that no bet is a sure bet.  We have all seen the monumental upsets in sports.  Don't risk too much of your bankroll on one of these "sure" bets because usually you will not recover.

2. Watch the games and notice dominant players/performances.  Great example is Blake Griffin from Oklahoma.  I placed a personal bet on Oklahoma in the NCAA tourney against Syracuse because I saw that the Syracuse bigs could not matchup with him...that is exactly what happened.

I am no pro but these are a few things that have made me very successful.

 I know in FB if it looks like a gift then bet opposite, win way more than u lose that way......CBB , look at home teams as many home courts are very strong, not saying dont bet road teams but look toward homer first......MLB is toughest to me,..........lot of variables.......bullpen, starter, starter vs opp, home and away etc

and moneylines so juice can eat u up if not careful......NBA , look for letdown spots on better teams...if Boston played Orl and Clev then  a bad team the effort most likely won't be top notch.....good angle also is play a+.500 team when they start a 3 game or more rd trip vs other conf..east conf team vs west and vice versa

and I do think some people have a knack for picking winners, but not just on gut feelings

I have been betting on sports for 10 years now and I have to say I am one of those instinct type of guys. A lot of pros on here or maybe all of them might think I am crazy but I never look at trends, ATS angles, stats or anything like that. I look at bet % and line movement to get my feel for the game. I do take into account for injuries and days off but I have found that a key player missing in the lineup can sometimes work to your advantage because most people will go against a team that is missing their star player only yo see that team still get blown out. I will rarely bet on a game that is getting pounded by the public and I am not afraid to take an underdog. I will say this though, my instinct usually comes easier in certain sports or conferences than others. For instance I pick national league games easier than american league. I pick the SEC better than Pac 10 and so on. I have not had a losing season an any sport in quite a while doing it this way either. So to answer your question yes there are instict type of players out there cause I am one of them.

I think the MOST IMPORTANT thing to being a handicapper is watching games. I will use the Lakers in game 5 as an example. Kobe Bryant had the killer instinct in game 4. I watched all of game 4 and immediately went on the forums here and posted my NBA GOY on LA + points in game 5. As far as I was concerned, after watching them play game 4, I knew they would roll game 5. On the flip side, touts but up some trends favoring orlando and talked about having line advantage and how the public was hammering LA and on and on. If you watch the games you will get the best feel for how the teams are playing... and then when what you are watching fits in with angles and situations you like... those plays should be the best...

Gballard - You say you are instinct...but I read one thing in your reply...you have learned to handicap the Las vegas Line and line movement which is half the battle....good point there....I talked about learning that trait from an old school capper in vegas in my Meet the Pros podcast.  That is a huge part of winning and that line capping also comes with experience ...and as you state you have been doing it for 10 years. 

I guess there is a "knack" for picking games.  Kinda like a salesman...you are either born a salesman or you are not..you have the gift of gab at birth or you do not...kinda like that I guess.

I kind of compare handicapping and handicappers to art and artists.  There are all different types styles of handicapping, just like art.  There are some abstract painters, just like there are some system and computer program handicappers.  Some guys have huge databases of various angles, like back team A if they are coming off of a greater than 20 point loss and playing at home against their divisional rival in their next game.  There are also other cappers that use value handicapping and public fades.  I could go on and on about different styles.  However, an artist is able to broaden his work if he doesn't just stick with one style, which is why I try to use several types of styles.

I try to use feel, knowledge, statistics, trends, match-ups, streaks, public fades, etc, when handicapping.  I think your best option is taking an open look at a game try to figure out what is going to have the biggest impact on the outcome of the game.  Another key is to learn from your losses and determine why you lost and if you had the right side.  You will not win every game and sometimes you will be on the right side of a losing selection.  The most important thing to do is to learn from your wrong side losers and determine where you went wrong.

LEARNING FROM YOUR MISTAKES IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO IMPROVING AS A HANDICAPPER.

Sometimes I just get that.......................

FEELIN'!!!!

Otherwise I bet a game according to what I know and not what I want to know.

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