Re: SATURDAY CAPPERS PLAYS

Betting as a Business

Washington +105 / Atlanta 1.5 Units

Like we told you last Sunday when we were on Boston over the Braves and Tommy Hanson, it's just a matter of time before Hanson's W/L record catches up to his overall numbers. The Braves are a perfect 5-0 in Hanson's starts this season but take a look at the numbers: He has a WHIP of 1.41 and ar ERA of 2.48... that's near impossible to do! That means he allows 12.69 base runners (via walk or hit) per 9 innings yet only allows 2.48 runs per 9 innings. And if you take his first start out of the equation (an 8-7 Atlanta win with Hanson giving up 6 hits and 6 ER's), in his 4 latest starts Hanson has pitched 23 innings giving up 18 hits and 16 walks but has only allowed a total of 2 runs!! So THAT"S a WHIP of 1.48 and an ERA of 1.28.... get the picture? Hanson's allowed an average of about 1 and a half base runners per inning over his last 4 starts (34 base runners... 23 innings) and has allowed just 2 to cross the plate... When the bottom falls out it's going to be ugly!
Of course we have to be concerned because today the Braves are playing the team with the worst record in baseball, but John Lannan as pitched well (5-5, 1.35 WHIP & 3.45 ERA) and as we've said before, even bad teams in MLB win 50 games in a season. &n! bsp;

Over 7 Runs (-120) Houston / San Francisco 1 Unit

Under 9 Runs (Even) Toronto / NY Yankees 1 Unit

Over 8.5 Runs (Even) Chicago WS / Kansas City 1 Unit

JACK JONES

15* on White Sox/Royals  UNDER 8.5 (-115) at 5DIMES

I like the under in the Royals vs the White Sox this afternoon.  White Sox starter, Gavin Floyd has been on a tear, earning a 0.87 ERA in his last 3 starts, never giving up more than 1 earned run in any of those appearances.  Meanwhile, KC starter, Luke Hochevar has pitched well at home this season, posting a 3.47 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 4 starts at Kauffman.  Expect a scrapy game with only a few runs.

lang  15d red sox  run line   5d  mets   5d  dodger

Craig Trapp

MLB  |  Jul 04

Los Angeles Dodgers-150   


Betting Trends


-Dodgers are 6-1 in Wolfs last 7 starts as a favorite.


-Padres are 0-5 in Geers last 5 starts as an underdog.


-Dodgers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.


-Padres are 6-14 in their last 20 overall.



Well the first game back for Manny was a success and today think we will see the same thing. The LAD had struggled to score but yesterday with his return they scored 6 runs. Wolf starts for the LAD today and he has been pretty good lately even though he has not got many wins. In his last 4 he has only gave up 8 runs in 20 innings. His real problem has been run support but think he will get it today. Going to the mound for SD is Geer who has been horrible in his last 10 games. He has given up more than 2 runs in every start except 2 in his last 10. In that time period he has one win and his team has only managed to win in his three of the ten games. Expect him to give up 5 runs minimum today in 4 innings. This one will not be close even put a small wager on run line here!!!

MATT RIVERS

For Saturday take the Giants minus 1 1/2 runs.

Russ Ortiz has actually somehow been pretty good this season but when compared to the reigning Cy Young award winner in Tim Lincecum this pitching matchup is an absolute joke and a must play on the home Giants laying that extra run.
San Francisco is not a great offense, save Friday's performance, and may not turn up a lot of crooked numbers today. Houston is in fact the superior lineup with more potential for long balls with guys like Berkman, Lee, Tejada and Pence but Lincecum isn't called "The Freak" for nothing. This kid is flat out unreal and a guy that has been on complete fire of late. In that last start he completely embarassed Albert Pujols and the Cardinals and back home here we may see a repeat of that.
San Francisco has been having more success this season than some thought, including myself and in such a lopsided matchup on the bump I will back them here laying that run and a half. I will keep my fingers crossed hoping that we can plate some runs because the Giants offense certainly has some issues at times but in the end Lincecum is too good to not take a shot on here in this spot against the old man Ortiz.

2♦ Giants (-1 1/2 runs) on a 1♦ to 5♦ Scale

John Fina
July 4, 2009

Selection: Cincinnati Reds (-105)

Good work today Satch!

Dominic Fazzini
 
Garrett Olson has had to replace the injured Erik Bedard in the Mariners� rotation, and he�s done an admirable job, winning three of his last four starts. Olson (3-2, 4.81 ERA) allowed two runs on four hits in five innings Sunday to beat the Dodgers in his last outing.

The left-hander now will try to get it done today at Fenway Park, a place that has not been kind to him. Olson is 0-3 with an 8.82 ERA in three appearances in Boston. And he is 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA overall in seven career starts against the Red Sox.

Brad Penny (6-3, 4.79) takes the mound for Boston. The veteran right-hander has grown stronger throughout the season, and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his past eight starts, and nine of the last 11.

Penny, who had a 3.18 ERA in June, gave up two runs on six hits in six innings Sunday against Atlanta in his last start.

I�m betting Penny will have another quality outing today against Seattle, and that Boston, which is 18-9 against southpaws, creates some fireworks of its own against Olson. Take the Red Sox on the run line.

3♦ BOSTON -1 1/2 runs

Bobby Maxwell

I've got a chance to play the Yankees at home catching plus-money on Independence Day? Hell yes I'm going with New York. I don't care if the Blue Jays have ace Roy Halladay (10-2, 2.56 ERA) on the mound.

New York is on some nice winning runs lately, including 8-1 overall, 6-0 against right-handers, 6-1 against winning teams and 17-8 in the Bronx. The Yankees got the 4-2 win over the Blue Jays on Friday and they'll get it done again today. Toronto is on slides of 1-5 overall, 1-4 against winning teams, 0-4 on Saturdays and 3-11 against A.L. East squads.
New York has won three of four against Toronto this season and the Yanks have Chien-Ming Wang (1-6, 10.06) on the hill who amazingly got his first win of the season on Sunday, giving up two runs on four hits in 5.2 innings of a 4-2 win over the Mets. He is 4-2 lifetime against the Blue Jays, and the Yankees are on runs of 39-16 when he pitches at home and 48-23 in his last 71 starts overall.
I'm going with the most American of teams playing on this Independence Day as they host a squad based out of Canada. This all sets up perfect. Play the Yankees!

2♦ N.Y. YANKEES

JIM FEIST

(977) TAMPA BAY RAYS
(978) TEXAS RANGERS
Take "Over"

Texas is an offensive park and two pitchers take the mound here with "issues." Tampa Bay is tops in baseball in runs scored, while Texas is 10th. Tampa Bay lefty David Price is a top talent, but young and raw, walking 25 in 36 innings, a terrible ratio. He has a 5.60 ERA his last three starts. Texas lefty Derek Holland simply isn't that good, at 1-5 with a 6.20 ERA. Look for an offensive show in Arlington, play the Rays/Rangers Over the total.