Re: CAPPER PLAYS

Indian Cowboy

Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians - Friday July 3, 2009 7:05 pm

Pick: 4 units (Play of the Day) TOTAL: Under 9 (-110)

4 Unit Play. Take the Under 9 between the Oakland A's @ Cleveland Indians (Friday @ 7:05pm est). This is a good spot for us to take an Under as the A's take on the Indians on the highway. For starters, Cahill, the California native comes off one of his worst starts of his young career (born in '88), as he gave up 7 runs to the Rockies at home as the A's fell short 9-11. Prior to that, this young man did not have a non-quality start in 8 of 9 starts and had his era go up to 4.23 after the Rockies start. I look for Cahill to bounce-back strong on the road as he has done in previous contests on the highway including giving up 0 runs in 5 innings at LA winning as a +149 dog. Huff came off pitching 8 scoreless innings at Pittsburgh where he did not yield a quality run, and he had a let down coming off that start as he gave up 6 runs at home to the Reds as the Indians ended up losing that game 1-8. I look for both of these pitchers to have a quality bounce-back today as the A's are 4-0 to the Under in their last 4 contests as Underdogs and the Under is 6-1 for the Indians in thier last 7 home games.

Craig Davis Friday's Lineup
20 Dime ---- MARLINS

10 Dime ---- TIGERS

FLORIDA --- Much like my third straight 25-dime winner on St. Louis last night, I'm not enthralled by this pitching matchup tonight for either side, but I can't help but ignore how well the Marlins have been playing lately, especially at home, and the fact the Marlins are getting better starting pitching, better bullpen work, and timely hitting. This team has all of a sudden become a contender, again, in the National League East and are locked in a virtual tie with the Phillies on top of the division.

First things first. The Marlins have won eight straight games at home and 13 of their last 16 as the listed favorite while the Pirates have dropped 8 of their last 11 as an underdog. The Pirates are also atrocious away from PNC Park, dropping 26 of their 40 games on the road. Let's also not forget their 1-4 in their last five road games and 0-4 in their last four vs. a right-handed starter. The Marlins, meanwhile, are 12-2 in their last 14 as a home favorite and 8-2 in Volstad's last 10 starts when facing an opponent that allowed five or more runs in its previous game.

Chris Volstad has really settled down since his start in Boston (8 ER in 3.2 IP), tossing 12 innings of 10-hit ball, allowing five earned runs and nine strikeouts. Let's keep in mind, he's still a bit on the young side and he's clearly still working through some mechanical issues, but you can't argue with some of his recent starts. You also can't argue with his career 2.38 ERA in the month of July or the fact that batters are hitting just .228 against him in this month.

Charlie Morton counters tonight for the Pirates, and brings a respectable 4.09 ERA to the hill. What you probably don't know is that he's started against the Marlins three times already in his career, and his record is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, including a 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Morton has started only three games this year, but those games were anywhere between 8 and 10 days from one another. That tells me they are only using him when someone gets hurt and the rotation gets out of whack. I may have never pitched in the Major Leagues, but I do know these starters need a little consistency and he's not getting it. June 10th, June 20th and June 28th... those are the dates of his starts this year. Is his arm really ready to start again this soon? We'll see... but I don't think he's going to go any further than the 5th inning tonight... and by that time the game should already be over.

DETROIT --- I'm going to back the Tigers in this spot tonight despite the fact the Twins do play better at home and the Tigers aren't very good on the road. We're getting a really good price and every so often it's worth it to take a shot on a road dog if the matchup seems right. Look, I understand all the trends are stacked against us tonight... the Tigers are 3-8 in their last 11 road games and 2-9 in their last 11 on field turf while the Twins are 58-27 in their last 85 home games, but one of the main reasons I like the Tigers tonight is the fact they are throwing a lefty the Twins have never seen before.

Lucas French has thrown just 3 innings all season, but the lefty hasn't allowed an earned run in those two outings and facing an aggressive Minnesota offense could be exactly what he needs to get ahead in the count early. Kevin Slowey toes the rubber for the Twins tonight, having been shelled in his last outing vs. St. Louis. Slowey lasted just 3 innings, allowing six hits and five earned runs in a 5-3 loss. The bullpen did their job after the third inning, but it was already too late. On paper, it definitely looks like I'm on the wrong side of this contest, but in the end you'll see the Twins have no answer for French and the Detroit Tigers.

big al total of the year

under bosox/seattle

Jake Timlin
Friday's Action
400♦ Atlanta Braves

Go with the Braves tonight as they make it 5 straight wins.

Fresh off sweeping the Phillies the Braves find them self�s right back in thick of things in the NL East. Well look for the Braves surge to continue over the next three days as they take advantage of playing the worst team in all of baseball in Washington who has lost 8 of their last 10 games.

Continuing their losing ways the Nationals will throw Ross Detwiler is still winless on the year at 0-4 with a 5.24 ERA as Washington is an awful 1-7 overall when the lefty starts.

Kawakami will counter for the Braves rested after 8 days off as the righty continue his strong pitching that has lead to a 3.13 ERA over his last ten starts and an even lower ERA of 2.57 over his last three starts.

All Atlanta as they open up the weekend series a huge winner.

Michael Cannon
Friday's Play...
20 Dime �

CARDINALS (With Pineiro and Bailey as listed pitchers)

I will be back by 4:00 pm eastern with my analysis

Chris Jordan

Friday's Winners ...

200♦ FLORIDA MARLINS RUN LINE - Volstad over Morton - Nice little three-game streak after a home sweep of the Nationals, and after taking travel-Thursday off, Florida is going to dismantle a Pittsburgh team that was in a marathon of a make-up game yesterday at home against the Mets.

New York appeared to be freefalling earlier this week, and most certainly didn�t need to play a write-in game at PNC Park after a three-game set in Milwaukee, where they were outscored 16-10 and lost two of three. Nevertheless, the makeup of a June 3 rainout undoubtedly took a lot out of the Pirates, who would have rather had their first day off since June 22.

Now they�ll bring a bit of a skid into this one, having lost four of five and nine of 14, and play their 11th straight game in as many days, and 17th in 18 days against a red-hot team that has not only won three in a row, but 12 of 18 since mid-June.

I�m sending Chris Volstad to the hill tonight, and though he had been struggling throughout June, he looked like an entirely different pitcher his last two starts. In Tampa Bay, on Saturday, against the defending American League champs he turned in a blue-collar six innings but ended up with a no-decision. The 22-year-old right-hander surrendered just two runs and scattered five hits while striking out five. And let�s not forget prior to that he won right here at home against the Yankees.

He�s a much better choice than Pittsburgh�s Charlie Morton, who has been battling a nagging left hamstring strain that has limited from making regular starts in the rotation. And because of that injury the Pirates are cautious to push him deep into games. And since he made three starts against the Marlins last year and allowed 10 earned runs over 15 innings, I think I certainly have the edge in this matchup.

Florida will be revved up for this weekend, and I wouldn�t be surprised if it sweeps the Bucs too and runs the winning streak to six. With a West Coast trip coming up next week, the Marlins are a team to watch the next three days, beginning with this blowout winner right here.

50♦ DETROIT TIGERS - LIST French only - This is as close to Major League pitching debut as it gets, so even though Lucas French was called up last Sunday and has worked out of the bullpen twice and tossed a minimal three innings, I�m going to roll with the southpaw at this big price tonight.

The 23-year-old lefty has produced some workmanlike innings for the Tigers� farm system, as he�s given up just four earned runs on 16 hits over 23 innings, while striking out 26 in his last three starts. Going back even further, French has lasted a minimum of 6-2/3 innings with two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. I�m taking a shot with this pup tonight, as I�ve built a nice little bankroll for the weekend and can afford to take a look at this kid at this price and with this rating.

Brandon Lang

Friday
15 Dime Braves
5 Dime Mariners
5 Dime Rangers

Doc's Sports

3-Unit Play Take #902 Chicago Cubs (-1.5RL +110) over Milwaukee Brewers (2:20p.m.)

3-Unit Play Take #918 New York Yankees (-1.5RL -110) over Toronto Jays (1:05p.m)

3-Unit Play Take #904 Florida Marlins (-1.5RL +110) over Pittsburgh Pirates (6:10p.m.)

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