bk76 said:
Thanks for the response, Dave. As you said, the Deadspin data has you at +32.65u for regular season CFB from 2011-2015 (this is all without fees). But that includes some misgraded parlays/teasers. After correcting for those, I'm getting -18.95u for those plays.
Wow. The 0.1% can affect long term promotion. Great use of this thread guys, the transparency really is second to none!
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Since it seems to be a bit of an open issue, and I was curious, I went through the rest of Dave Essler’s football record since the start of the 2011 season, checking for typos or system misgrades in either direction. Here’s a summary of what I found.
There were four plays where the unit size of the play was different than what was entered into the system; the intention for the play to be bigger or smaller than what was entered is clarified in the writeup. The ID numbers for these plays are 143578, 147258, 180106, 184704.
There are three plays where there appears to be a typo on the spread that was entered into the system. For each of these, the spread mentioned in the writeup is different, and after checking the line history, it appears the writeup spread is indeed correct. The ID numbers for these plays are 97804, 100079, 144323.
There was one instance of a parlay graded as a win, but it looks like the second leg lost: 145863.
There are forty-one instances of teasers that appear to be misgraded. For each of these, it seems like the play was just graded based on the result of the first leg of the teaser, but the result of the second leg was different, causing the system to grade it incorrectly. The ID numbers for these plays are 96858, 97777, 100886, 102817, 123566, 124512, 124913, 127340, 128368, 128680, 128856, 128932, 129023, 129413, 142295, 144312, 144782, 145720, 145759, 145974, 146049, 146368, 146542, 147252, 148463, 148513, 149263, 150134, 165099, 165257, 165389, 165895, 166538, 167157, 168090, 168186, 180950, 182387, 183143, 183469, 184719.
There are ten instances where the teaser price is -110 in the system, but a different price is used in the writeup; I guess maybe the system just defaults to -110? The ID numbers for these are 99972, 101746, 104159, 121596, 127412, 127556, 127716, 128160, 128249, 145625.
Finally, fifteen plays were not graded at all. I’m not sure why this would be the case, but it’s not like they’re showing as pushes or anything, there’s just nothing. The ID numbers for these are 94292, 94293, 94432, 94433, 94463, 94989, 95960, 97044, 97087, 97103, 97412, 97478, 97499, 97698, 98098.
I hope that is everything, I tried to be thorough and include anything that might affect Dave’s record in either direction.