If you're like Lloyd and betting 100+ plays, and you knew your edge on each play then ideally you'd only play the ones with the highest edge, without putting too much on any one play to risk going broke. I.e. instead of putting 1% on 100 plays, you'd pick out the 33 with the highest edge and put 3% on each of them. Or if you had a really high edge play only the top 20 at 5% each. That would be the way to maximize your profit on Sunday.
Now in the real world do you really know which plays are 53% to win or 55% or 57% or if you even have an edge at all. Probably not. My advice if you have an edge on 6 games bet all 6, but keep track of your records and try and determine if you really do have an edge or not. If not, see if maybe you would have an edge if you cut back. Just keep in mind if your edge is small, even if you're only playing 1 game, your bankroll committment to that bet should be small.
Sorry Lloyd your right it was a €25 bet at 4.40 (+340) on the Giants... funny thing is I wanted to bet them ATS but what happens with Betfair is that the handicap / spread markets lose all liquidity & the money disappears from them once the game starts so you are stuck with ML or nothing - I didnt actually have any money in my PP account which I would have used for a live handicap bet like this
Anyway the alcohol definitly affected me putting €105.75 on the Texans -4.5 which I thought was good at the time cause I was getting +106 instead of -110, anyway that is not an amount of money I personally risk on any bet I ain't a big time player - and I like to spread my bankroll around as many opportunities as I can and that I think offer value personally - I just got greedy and reckless due to drinking!
I know you dont post picks here usually I just wanted to get some ideas for props thanks, I will check them out tomorrow - Really gotta sleep now fpr 90 minutes lol.. Thanks again Lloyd!!
If you are a winning handicapper, that is better than 53% on -110, then you should never put more than 25% of your bankroll in play at any time. You should also bet no more than 3% of your bankroll on any one play. If you follow this you will never go bust .
Lloyd Christmas Those words next to them are the word version of the emoticons I put next to them to label them a win or a loss. I bet plenty of soccer which I'm sure you appreciate. Derry City got me a big W this weekend in the IPL
Those words next to them are the word version of the emoticons I put next to them to label them a win or a loss. I bet plenty of soccer which I'm sure you appreciate. Derry City got me a big W this weekend in the IPL
Glad you got the win on Derry City Lloyd, I didn't realise that you bet much soccer - what leagues do you look at? I'm finding the Premiership very hard this year but in Serie A I've been doing well (abliet on a small number of plays), gonna kick up my soccer work up a gear once this international break is over.
Speaking of the Irish League, my hometown club won the Championship for the first time in 35 years on Saturday!! So I guess I wasn't the only person who made silly decisions based on alcohol - the whole town was celebrating!
Sligo Rovers FC!!!
Kirksports If you are a winning handicapper, that is better than 53% on -110, then you should never put more than 25% of your bankroll in play at any time. You should also bet no more than 3% of your bankroll on any one play. If you follow this you will never go bust .
Hey Kirk,
Yes, very good stuff - there are lots of variations of this. 1.5%-3% of total bankroll per stake etc. There is a great article here at Pregame that I can find you by Greg Shaker that discusses how to succesfully manage and build a bankroll, basic principles are similair to what you said above.
- My point was that just because I won a nice bet on the NYG on the ML I shouldnt have upped my stake fourfold for the next bet, that was like driving my bankroll off a cliff - but greed and alcohol both affect your thought process
Lloyd- if you are doing zero handicapping, how do you determine your plays? Do you have a bunch of outs and then find off numbers?
jzovas Lloyd- if you are doing zero handicapping, how do you determine your plays? Do you have a bunch of outs and then find off numbers?
Yup
You want a handicapping tip? Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a bitch, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more. I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice
"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"
ConorB Kirksports If you are a winning handicapper, that is better than 53% on -110, then you should never put more than 25% of your bankroll in play at any time. You should also bet no more than 3% of your bankroll on any one play. If you follow this you will never go bust . Hey Kirk, Yes, very good stuff - there are lots of variations of this. 1.5%-3% of total bankroll per stake etc. There is a great article here at Pregame that I can find you by Greg Shaker that discusses how to succesfully manage and build a bankroll, basic principles are similair to what you said above. - My point was that just because I won a nice bet on the NYG on the ML I shouldnt have upped my stake fourfold for the next bet, that was like driving my bankroll off a cliff - but greed and alcohol both affect your thought process
ConorB Lloyd Christmas Those words next to them are the word version of the emoticons I put next to them to label them a win or a loss. I bet plenty of soccer which I'm sure you appreciate. Derry City got me a big W this weekend in the IPL Glad you got the win on Derry City Lloyd, I didn't realise that you bet much soccer - what leagues do you look at? I'm finding the Premiership very hard this year but in Serie A I've been doing well (abliet on a small number of plays), gonna kick up my soccer work up a gear once this international break is over. Speaking of the Irish League, my hometown club won the Championship for the first time in 35 years on Saturday!! So I guess I wasn't the only person who made silly decisions based on alcohol - the whole town was celebrating! Sligo Rovers FC!!!
I look at almost all. Seem to end up playing League 1 in England the most in Europe and Mexico and Brazil on this side of the pond. What are the League 2 games like in England? I picture them being played in front of 100 people on a Grammar school field
Lloyd Christmas ConorB Lloyd Christmas Those words next to them are the word version of the emoticons I put next to them to label them a win or a loss. I bet plenty of soccer which I'm sure you appreciate. Derry City got me a big W this weekend in the IPL Glad you got the win on Derry City Lloyd, I didn't realise that you bet much soccer - what leagues do you look at? I'm finding the Premiership very hard this year but in Serie A I've been doing well (abliet on a small number of plays), gonna kick up my soccer work up a gear once this international break is over. Speaking of the Irish League, my hometown club won the Championship for the first time in 35 years on Saturday!! So I guess I wasn't the only person who made silly decisions based on alcohol - the whole town was celebrating! Sligo Rovers FC!!! I look at almost all. Seem to end up playing League 1 in England the most in Europe and Mexico and Brazil on this side of the pond. What are the League 2 games like in England? I picture them being played in front of 100 people on a Grammar school field
Woah guys I was badly drunk writing some of these posts..
No Lloyd, you would be surprised with League 2 clubs - some of those teams like York, Gillingham, Exeter are midsized clubs who just slipped down a bit.. I guess alot of the stadiums in League 2 could be 10,000+ & I think some 15,000+ capacity.. some of course would be smaller but not as small as you picture them! :)