Forums

Election Odds:

Before debate: $435 on Obama won $100 ($100 on Romney won $365) - implying Obama victory 80% likely.
After debate: $275 on Obama wins $100 ($100 on Romney wins $240) - implying Obama victory 72% likely.

The day Bin Laden was killed, Obama's re-election odds improved by 6%. After the debate yesterday, they droped by 8%.

Obama's re-election odds today (67%) are better than they were the day after Bin Laden was killed (64%)

This is very interesting to me, I wasn't correlating to the Bin Laden aspect, however makes complete sense. I tracked it exactly as you did RJ.

Many of my bettors have been wanting to bet the Race. I offered out (DEM -430 / REP +360) prior to debate (as of 10-1-12) I did not offer prior. After Debate I had to adjust accordingly to (DEM -290 / REP +255).

I expect a skew the other way after next debate, however foreign policy of current admin and recent events may have me thinking to adjust further in favor of REP.

for what it is worth... prior to debate I took in 85% monies on DEM and surprisingly day after further monies on DEM at current odds (double downers). I suppose I should consider moving on REP after next debate, but who knows maybe I take all that action up to the 6th.

Any thoughts on hedging my position? I feel like I'm in the "Catbird Seat"