I recently purchased a package from a professional handicapper. The package was for the second half of the baseball season. This capper had a strong first half and I wanted to capitalize on what I perceived to be his good understanding of the MLB.
Since the break he has made 109 plays. His record is 49-60 and he is down 22.7 units. Add in the cost of the plays and that number is closer to -27 units in a month or so.
What I'm wondering is how to handle the rest of the season......
Is it best to just keep playing his picks and hope for the best?
Is it time to just say "f**k it", and move on and just call it a 27 unit experiment that went bad?
Is it time to decrease my bet size and wait for an upswing?
Is it time to increase my bet size and hope for an upswing?
A few notes.....
This capper is at 51% for the season and 45% for the second half. I think his first half was around 57%.
This capper does not provide write-ups for his picks so I can't tell if his methodologies are flawed or whatever. I just get the picks and they are either 1, 2, or 3 units. They are mostly 2 units, some 1 units, and very rarely a 3 unit pick.
Thanks in advance for any assistance.
Carpe Diem -
If you're someone who pays for picks, you aren't going to be able to tell if something is flawed due to a write-up anyway. If you feel he is a winning player, continue to bet as he advises you to bet.
You want a handicapping tip? Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a bitch, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more. I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice
"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"
Yeah, leaning towards riding out the storm and hoping that things turn around for this guy.
The reference I made to the write-ups is mostly due to the nature of following somebody blindly without hearing an explanation. Sure, I can follow the predictions of the local weatherman on TV, but I'd rather hear an explanation of the weather from a climatologist.
Thanks Lloyd, always enjoy your posts.
I'm going to respectfully disagree with Lloyd and I understand what you mean, a write-up would at least give you the thought processes that went into making the selection. If you knew why they chose team A then you could decide on your own whether to bet it or not.
I would either chalk it up as a loss or you will have to forget the past and start with good money management and only bet a percentage of your CURRENT bankroll. Your bet size will be decreased because you now have a smaller bankroll.
Lloyd hates buying picks and I appreciate that but buying picks paid off handsomely for me in basketball, a sport I know nothing about.
Thanks Toofdoc, also appreciate your posts here at Pregame.
Yeah, this last month took quite a chunk out of my roll. I like the idea of sticking with it with less exposure.
Best wishes for picking winners -
Quick update -
Here we are a month later. I decided to stick with the handicapper and follow his picks without altering my bet sizing. Sure enough, he has turned it around! His totals for the second half of the baseball season are now 90-85 for +11.72 units. He is approximately +34 units for the last month and on a current 7-1 run this week.
I was able to reach this Pregame handicapper via e-mail and ask him some candid questions. He was very honorable and forthright and after that e-mail exchange I was confident enough to stick with his picks.
Yes, I'm glad I did, and yes, this has turned out to be a rewarding experience.
Carpe Diem -
My door is always for both good and bad. Never hesitate to reach out directly to me. No one is ever 100% perfect, but I think many Pregame users can attest to my attention I give to issues.
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