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Thread Starter A Las Vegas "odds maker" opines on why Obama will lose to Romney in November
JerseyGuy
Joined: 02/15/2009
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This email was sent to me by a friend.

 

A Las Vegas "odds maker" opines on why Obama will lose to Romney in November.  Interesting analysis, but I’m a bit suspect because he did not sign his name to the email, nevertheless there are some good points in this.

R.

It's a bit of a long read but good for your soul - unless you plan to back Obama in November. (117 days to go!)
 
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
 
 
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
 
 
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
 
 
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama.
Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.
 
 
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
 
 
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida ). This is not good news for Obama.
 
 
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel . Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.
 
 
*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
 
 
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
 
 
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
 
 
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
 
 
*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.
 
 
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
 
 
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
 
 
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.    
 
But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing - he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

2013 PGA = (4 Tourney Winners) (-45.77*)

2012 NFL = 25-15-2 (+16.30*)

2012 CFB Bowls = 7-7-1 (-2.20*)

2012 CFB = 0-2 (-4.80*)

 

dennistyler
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Dude certainly knows how to read an election. The numbers are flipping on Obama. He is losing independents and they are his only hope. This WILL be a referendum election, just like the midterms were.

dennistyler
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It's VERY clear that Obama can't run on his "record." He has no choice but to attack Romney like he has done viciously the last 2 weeks. Look where this huge NEGATIVE ad-buy from the last 2 weeks has gotten him...47-47 in a demo-leaning wp/abc poll.

Lloyd Christmas
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Romney! Romney!

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a bitch, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

spartan
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It's going to be Romney when the dust settles. There is a discontentment in this country I have not seen in a long time guys. This nation is scared and has a right to be.

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madmoney
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now me being someone who has bet obama this has me worried more than anything else that has been posted on here. thx for the post jerseyguy.

the latino and youth vote are the big keys, seems like romney has done everything he could so far on the women vote and the polls havent budged at all in romneys favor with all the attempts hes made in the last few months to sway them.

to me and ill say it again, from what i've seen between the 2, and im sure this is part of the problem with obama nay sayers is that it will be the debates where you see romneys faults. you think obama can't lead, then wait till you see romney head 2 head with obama in a public debate. the gop debates weren't even debates until santorum stepped it up and romney wasn't comfortable at all and was able to hide behind the other candidates while they bashed each other in. again the problem with obama it seems with the right is that he preaches all this change and what has been the outcome of all those speeches pre 08 election. no better than where we were, but wait till you see romney.

JerseyGuy
Joined: 02/15/2009
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madmoney

thx for the post jerseyguy.

you think obama can't lead,

My pleasure madmoney.  However, I do believe that Obama can't lead, and has proven it over the last four years, but he sure can talk the talk.  He is going to make a lot of money starting in 2013 on the lecture tour, when the people throw him out of office this election.  He will probably blame it on Bush when he loses in a landslide....LOL!   You better back-up that bet madmoney.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

2013 PGA = (4 Tourney Winners) (-45.77*)

2012 NFL = 25-15-2 (+16.30*)

2012 CFB Bowls = 7-7-1 (-2.20*)

2012 CFB = 0-2 (-4.80*)

 

midnite football
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Good read and pretty good points. He's missing some pretty obvious info though. How many people that voted for Chaney will not even vote this time around due to the lack of a Republican candidate?

On another note, I personally know of two people that are voting Obama this year after voting Dick in 08. One had her mothers life saved due to "Obamacare". And both are from the suburbs, although they are not housewives.

midnite football's current MLB ,NHL ,NBA ,CBB season record
SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CBB12199955.001215.00
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NHL4455344.44-739.00
dennistyler
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midnite football
?

On another note, I personally know of two people that are voting Obama this year after voting Dick in 08. One had her mothers life saved due to "Obamacare". And both are from the suburbs, although they are not housewives.

Crazy, you must know the ONLY 2!Stick out tongue

dennistyler
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midnite football

Good read and pretty good points. He's missing some pretty obvious info though. How many people that voted for Chaney will not even vote this time around due to the lack of a Republican candidate?

Seriously? I think you meant, how many Republicans who didn't vote at all in '08 cause they didn't like McCain will come out in droves to support ANYBODY but Obama after his debacle of a Presidency?

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