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Thread Starter Will Vegas Odds of Nov Election change after Healthcare Decision?
jonpistone2
Joined: 08/06/2008
Posts: 14078
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The odds I have recently seen are about -150 that a Democrat (President Obama) will win the White House election in Nov. of 2012.  I have also seen odds saying "YES, the Supreme Court will rule Individual Mandate is Unconstitutional" at -215. 

I grant you that these may not be the 'true odds', it could be that people who are willing to bet these props tend to have a built in 'belief' reason for betting rather than thinking about the real odds.  But if you can put that aside, my question is:  do you think the "To win in Nov" odds will change after the public hears the outcome from the Supreme Court, or are those odds 'built in' to the price already?

As we see in a game 6 or game 7 price/odds of a playoff series, there is a slightly 'built-in' price of what the original bets were before the series started.  Do you find that to be the case with these two bets -- or are they not as related as different playoff series bets?

We have a few days/weeks to talk about this before we actually see the answer -- I was curious what people on here though...so please share below!



[edited by: jonpistone2 at 2:53 PM (GMT -7) on Thu, Jun 21 2012]

'12 NFL Props: (16-14)  +2.65 Units

'12 NFL:  (14-11)  +2.87 Units 

'12 CFB:  (30-22)  +5.7 Units

MLB: (45-24-1)  +22.83 Units

'12 Tennis:   +30.50 Units

Soccer:  (10-11-4)  -2.2 Units

'12 XNFL (8-12-1) -5.2 Units

'10 & `11 NFL: (142-91-2)  +117.45 Units

Super Bowl 46 Props: (2* Plays = 6-0)  (1* Plays = 12-6) (overall = 18-6) = +18.9 Units!

'11 XNFL (11-8) +9.7 Units

`10 NFL Props: (69-41-2) +55.85 Units

'10 & `11 CFB: (139-89-5)  +107.1 Units

`10-11 & '11-12 NHL: (100-86-13) +42.5 Units

`10-11 & '11-12  CBB: (220-160) +86.1 Units

'10-11 & '12  NBA: (83-79) +13.2 Units

`11 MLB Props: (4-0) +5.25 Units

`10-11 NBA Props: (16-8) +17.85 Units

Boxing: (2-0) +8 Units

'12 PGA (21 of 37 Winning Events) -3.09 Units (3 Correctly Selected Event Winning Golfer)

'11PGA (19 of 31 Winning Events) +150.64 Units (9 Correctly Selected Event Winning Golfers!)

'10 PGA (25 of 30 Winning Events) +202.5 Units

 

2* plays (233-134)

3* plays (119-57)

4* plays (72-37)

5* plays (52-14)

 

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Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 19059
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I don't think Obamacare, repealed or not will have any more effect on the coming election

"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"

jonpistone2
Joined: 08/06/2008
Posts: 14078
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thanks for sharing griff

'12 NFL Props: (16-14)  +2.65 Units

'12 NFL:  (14-11)  +2.87 Units 

'12 CFB:  (30-22)  +5.7 Units

MLB: (45-24-1)  +22.83 Units

'12 Tennis:   +30.50 Units

Soccer:  (10-11-4)  -2.2 Units

'12 XNFL (8-12-1) -5.2 Units

'10 & `11 NFL: (142-91-2)  +117.45 Units

Super Bowl 46 Props: (2* Plays = 6-0)  (1* Plays = 12-6) (overall = 18-6) = +18.9 Units!

'11 XNFL (11-8) +9.7 Units

`10 NFL Props: (69-41-2) +55.85 Units

'10 & `11 CFB: (139-89-5)  +107.1 Units

`10-11 & '11-12 NHL: (100-86-13) +42.5 Units

`10-11 & '11-12  CBB: (220-160) +86.1 Units

'10-11 & '12  NBA: (83-79) +13.2 Units

`11 MLB Props: (4-0) +5.25 Units

`10-11 NBA Props: (16-8) +17.85 Units

Boxing: (2-0) +8 Units

'12 PGA (21 of 37 Winning Events) -3.09 Units (3 Correctly Selected Event Winning Golfer)

'11PGA (19 of 31 Winning Events) +150.64 Units (9 Correctly Selected Event Winning Golfers!)

'10 PGA (25 of 30 Winning Events) +202.5 Units

 

2* plays (233-134)

3* plays (119-57)

4* plays (72-37)

5* plays (52-14)

 

Follow @jonpistone2 on Twitter

Johnny Detroit
Joined: 06/21/2006
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were the odds at BetOnline? if so, they made those for me at the request of Glenn Beck's producer.

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Toofdoc
Joined: 02/01/2011
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Since I have yet to meet one democrat or republican  that would change their vote regardless of any healthcare, fast or furious, or furry animal sacrifice on the White house lawn, I think the only thing that matters is "how motivated will the electorate be to go vote.

4 years ago the excitement of a Hope and Change brought the heat but that card has been played and everyone still has to buy gas and pay their mortgage.  Unless something else like Trevon Martin comes along and divides the country then we are sitting at a coin flip till the final tally of hanging chads.

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L-TRAIN
Joined: 09/25/2009
Posts: 212
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How is the payout determination made on the healthcare decision bet?  If they determine a portion of it to be unconstitutional, but don't strike it down in it's entirety, which side wins?



[edited by: L-TRAIN at 8:29 PM (GMT -7) on Thu, Jun 21 2012]
Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 19059
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JonPistone was simply questioning if the ruling on the healthcare bill, Yay or Nay would effect Obama's current election odds......some would deem his current 4 year term a failure if he did not get his healthcare bill through, others might deem it's failure as a God Send....

"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"

jonpistone2
Joined: 08/06/2008
Posts: 14078
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Johnny Detroit

were the odds at BetOnline? if so, they made those for me at the request of Glenn Beck's producer.

 

Exactly correct - yes!

Quite an honor to have a sports line MADE for you!!

 

So, how exactly did it work....did his producer contact you?!?

This is quite a great story.....I'm going to make a new post -- hope you comment!

'12 NFL Props: (16-14)  +2.65 Units

'12 NFL:  (14-11)  +2.87 Units 

'12 CFB:  (30-22)  +5.7 Units

MLB: (45-24-1)  +22.83 Units

'12 Tennis:   +30.50 Units

Soccer:  (10-11-4)  -2.2 Units

'12 XNFL (8-12-1) -5.2 Units

'10 & `11 NFL: (142-91-2)  +117.45 Units

Super Bowl 46 Props: (2* Plays = 6-0)  (1* Plays = 12-6) (overall = 18-6) = +18.9 Units!

'11 XNFL (11-8) +9.7 Units

`10 NFL Props: (69-41-2) +55.85 Units

'10 & `11 CFB: (139-89-5)  +107.1 Units

`10-11 & '11-12 NHL: (100-86-13) +42.5 Units

`10-11 & '11-12  CBB: (220-160) +86.1 Units

'10-11 & '12  NBA: (83-79) +13.2 Units

`11 MLB Props: (4-0) +5.25 Units

`10-11 NBA Props: (16-8) +17.85 Units

Boxing: (2-0) +8 Units

'12 PGA (21 of 37 Winning Events) -3.09 Units (3 Correctly Selected Event Winning Golfer)

'11PGA (19 of 31 Winning Events) +150.64 Units (9 Correctly Selected Event Winning Golfers!)

'10 PGA (25 of 30 Winning Events) +202.5 Units

 

2* plays (233-134)

3* plays (119-57)

4* plays (72-37)

5* plays (52-14)

 

Follow @jonpistone2 on Twitter

jonpistone2
Joined: 08/06/2008
Posts: 14078
All Pro
Top 25 Contributor

Griff

JonPistone was simply questioning if the ruling on the healthcare bill, Yay or Nay would effect Obama's current election odds......some would deem his current 4 year term a failure if he did not get his healthcare bill through, others might deem it's failure as a God Send....

 

correct....I was asking how the ruling may or may not change the odds of the election in november.....didnt mean to make this into a debate about healthcare itself.

'12 NFL Props: (16-14)  +2.65 Units

'12 NFL:  (14-11)  +2.87 Units 

'12 CFB:  (30-22)  +5.7 Units

MLB: (45-24-1)  +22.83 Units

'12 Tennis:   +30.50 Units

Soccer:  (10-11-4)  -2.2 Units

'12 XNFL (8-12-1) -5.2 Units

'10 & `11 NFL: (142-91-2)  +117.45 Units

Super Bowl 46 Props: (2* Plays = 6-0)  (1* Plays = 12-6) (overall = 18-6) = +18.9 Units!

'11 XNFL (11-8) +9.7 Units

`10 NFL Props: (69-41-2) +55.85 Units

'10 & `11 CFB: (139-89-5)  +107.1 Units

`10-11 & '11-12 NHL: (100-86-13) +42.5 Units

`10-11 & '11-12  CBB: (220-160) +86.1 Units

'10-11 & '12  NBA: (83-79) +13.2 Units

`11 MLB Props: (4-0) +5.25 Units

`10-11 NBA Props: (16-8) +17.85 Units

Boxing: (2-0) +8 Units

'12 PGA (21 of 37 Winning Events) -3.09 Units (3 Correctly Selected Event Winning Golfer)

'11PGA (19 of 31 Winning Events) +150.64 Units (9 Correctly Selected Event Winning Golfers!)

'10 PGA (25 of 30 Winning Events) +202.5 Units

 

2* plays (233-134)

3* plays (119-57)

4* plays (72-37)

5* plays (52-14)

 

Follow @jonpistone2 on Twitter

Johnny Detroit
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 20844
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he RT something on elections odds i used. messaged him asking if he needed anything else and he asked about it. went to my guys at BetOnline and they put some up. my dad likes Beck, so he had Glenn sign his new book, put in some kind words and they over-nighted him a copy.

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