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As always, if anyone is looking for some "JD Treatment", email me personally.

I was quite surprised that the Phillies' line ballooned from -145 to -160 yesterday.  However, I was not worried.  In fact, I fired on them again just before game time!

The Phillies are poison right now.  I can't imagine who is STILL drinking the Kool-Aid. 

My TOP play (2*) on pregame.com yesterday was:

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COLORADO +140 over Philadelphia – The last time the Rockies played at home, they were shutout 2-0.  This is a solid situation for Colorado, as they are 5-1 at home when they were shutout in their last home game, as long as their line is within 170 of pickem, scoring an average of 8.0 runs per game.  Three of the five wins came as a dog and in their last game in this spot (this April) they won 17-8.

In Fredrich’s last home start, he went five innings and allowed one run on NO walks while striking out five.

It is very unusual for a team that is 1-10 their last eleven to be a 150-plus road favorite.  In fact, it has only happened once in the previous 20,970 major league baseball games.  It came in 2010 when Ubaldo was a 170 favorite in St Louis as a member of the Rockies.  They lost 1-0.

Yes, Cliff Lee is off a solid start, but his four previous outings were all non-quality starts in which he allowed an average of 5.0 runs in 6.17 innings.   Besides, the Phillies are 2-7 when their starter went at least eight innings and allowed at least two runs in his last start – and they were an average of minus 164 on the moneyline.

The Phillies are WAY overpriced right now.  They have a lot of play-on trends in past performance.  However, these trends are stale as the Phillies are on a slide and they are unlikely to get up off the mat.  Do the linesmakers actually the Phillies are going to make a drive for the playoffs?

FORECAST: COLORADO 6 Philadelphia 4

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Clearly, the Phillies were the wrong side of this game.  This is my specialty -- finding line value in live dogs when they are playing overpriced favorites.

Dr. Ed Meyer

Dr. Ed,

This is Eddie from the Buckeye State. I have tried over and over to figure out how to use the SDQL QUERY at the site you told me to go to but I just can't figure it out. If you would, when you have the time, could you explain it to me in better detail. I even went to the page that had that days games on it and clicked on them to see what it gave me but it didn't help. Maybe if you tutor me a little bit you can get me through this and I'll be able to use this for all the sports. Right now I just need it for MLB, but in 22 more days we will be heading into the NFL and then I think a couple weeks after that the NBA fires back up again LOL on the NBA.Seriously though if you can just teach me how to use the SDQL QUERY I will be forever grateful to you.

Thank You,

Eddie

PS- GO BUCKS and a small cheer for Baldwin Wallace.

EAZY_E

Dr. Ed,

This is Eddie from the Buckeye State. I have tried over and over to figure out how to use the SDQL QUERY at the site you told me to go to but I just can't figure it out. If you would, when you have the time, could you explain it to me in better detail. I even went to the page that had that days games on it and clicked on them to see what it gave me but it didn't help. Maybe if you tutor me a little bit you can get me through this and I'll be able to use this for all the sports. Right now I just need it for MLB, but in 22 more days we will be heading into the NFL and then I think a couple weeks after that the NBA fires back up again LOL on the NBA.Seriously though if you can just teach me how to use the SDQL QUERY I will be forever grateful to you.

Thank You,

Eddie

PS- GO BUCKS and a small cheer for Baldwin Wallace.

Eddie,

It would be a pleasure to get you started with the SDQL.

I'm not sure of the best way to do this.  Perhaps you can send me a private e-mail at the university and we can go through a few things over the phone when you are in front of your computer(?)

emeyer@bw.edu

Dr M.

With my 3* winner on the Chicago White Sox +150 last night, my 3*s now 4-1 at Pregame.com and all were underdogs.  Here is a complete listing:

7/4/2012 NY Yankees +132 Winner +396

7/5/2012 Kansas City +125 Winner +375

7/6/2012 Toronto +150 Loser -300

7/8/2012 New York Yankees +110 Winner +330

7/17/2012 Chicago White Sox +155 Winner +465

And below is the complete write-up of the Chicago White Sox play from 7/17.  By reading the full write-up it should be clear that we have a distinct advantage over the linesmakers because we have access to information that is not factored into the line.  This is how you win money betting baseball -- using information that is not factored into the line.  When you are using information to handicap, you should ask yourself, "Does this information give me an advantage over the linesmakers?"

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Chicago +150 over BOSTON – The Red Sox took game one of this four-game series by a score 5-1 while holding the White Sox to only five hits.  This is a very soft spot for the Red Sox and Lester is not in a good spot as well.  This puts us on a good team as a big dog.

Boston is 0-10 as a night favorite when they are off a win by fewer than nine runs in which they held their opponent to six or fewer hits.  The SDQL text is:

team=Red Sox and NGT and F and po:hits<=6 and 0 < p:margin < 9 and 20110804<=date

Boston has lost these ten games by an average of 4.0 runs, despite being an average of -159 on the moneyline.  Ouch.

In their three games in this spot this season, they have never led.

In addition, the Red Sox are 13-22 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and 8-12 since April 11, 2011 as a home 140+ favorite when they are off a game in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent’s starter.

Chicago will have their game faces on here and that’s what you want when playing a big dog – a team that thinks they have a chance to win.  The White Sox are 37-17 at night vs an AL foe after a multiple-run loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base.  The SDQL text is:

team=White Sox and NGT and C and p:team left on base<5 and p:margin<-1 and 20040810<=date

This win percentage of 68.5% is tops in the league.  The Phillies are second with a record of 25-13 (65.8%).  The White Sox’ net profit in this spot is +22.1 net games and this is also best in the entire league.  By running the SDQL text, you can see that they are perfect in this spot this season.

Finally, the Red Sox are 4-8 with Lester as a favorite of more than 140 when they won their last two games and 5-8 when Jon Lester starts as a 140+ favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent – including 0-3 if their opponent is at least 500 on the season.

The White Sox are loaded with line value at this price.  They should be about a coin-toss to win and we’re getting plus-150!

FORECAST: Chicago 5 BOSTON 4

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Thanks for taking the time to read this.  We are very proud of all the work we put into each game we release and we are proud of the 25 years of hard work that it took to get to this point.  The database has just updated for 7/18 and I'm getting to work on today's games!!

Dr Meyer

Ed - great to see you at pregame!  Looking forward to our next dinner in Vegas & BOL! - Scott Spreitzer.

Thanks Scott.  I enjoyed our last couple of dinners -- at the Rio and Red Rock.  Let's do it again.  I'll be in town for the Hilton Weekend!  I would love to get your thoughts on the upcoming NFL season.

Regards and BOL

Ed

Tough day yesterday.  We had San Francisco as a dog and they lost 3-2 while outhitting the Braves 9-3.  It's not the first time I lost a game like that and it won't be the last.

After 3.5 hours of handicapping the Friday card I have to pass.  Too many conflicting trends and systems that I refuse to go against.

I realize that my customers want selections, but imagine how frustrated I feel after all that work and nothing to show for it.

I did post an SDQL Query of the Day in the baseball forum that I like, but I don't like to lay that kind of a number.

Back tomorrow.

Dr M.