Scenario: (for simplicity reasons, lets just use easy math) I'll also add, that I do like the Celtics tonight, plus the points.
Series bet: on the Celtics for 200 to win 100
Game 6 tonight, up 3-2. Would you...
A. Bet 100 on the Celtics tonight +1.5 and hedge if there is a game 7.
B. Leave game 6 alone, hedge if there is a game 7.
(B)---Leave game 6 alone, unless you play the total
"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"
I agree with Griff. Bet the over and know that even if celts lose 2nite game 7 is in their place
Bet the final 2 games on it's merit and not hedge at all.
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Thanks fellas! Much appreciated! I'll likely use a combination of the advice here... I may place a little something on the OVER tonight, and likely ride out the series if there is a game 7.
I personally think if there is a game 7 back in Boston, the experience of the C's will prevail. (IMO)
Over the only way to look. Both teams will pull out all the stops here....Side Play a tough call....would lean Boston ....but the Totals Play has more teeth to it....BOL
Regards, Tony George- Big 12 Expert, 21 Year Veteran Capper, Pregame Pro Handicapper - "I hate to lose, more than I Love to Win"
These type of investment scenarios always interest me. However, this is not my forte so I would run this by Lloydchristmas for his thoughts. I think the ultimate answer depends upon your investment style. Personally, I am conservative and don't have much gamble in me.
With that in mind, I would sit out game 6 and if they win SU you sit back and collect. However, If they lose game 6, you can activate your plan B by taking the Sixers and the points in game 7 and hedge/middle your series bet:
1. If C's win but don't cover game 7 you clean up.
2. If C's win and cover, you win less but still make a profit.
3. If Sixers win you lose money but have limited your losses
2 of the 3 above scenarios are negative in terms of your series equity but also 2 of the 3 scenarios make you money. Therefore it is a trade off I would make but then again I am conservative and this may not be the best course of action.
These are just random thoughts as I have little experience with working hedges. I would be interested in hearing more thoughts on this subject. Good luck.
"I mean really, I don't see why you people just can't watch the horses run around the track and not bet on them."
Thanks Tony and Game! After many years, I've finally hit a decent long term stride in the profit area to this whole sports gambling thing. I'm always trying to refine and improve my tactics and all your input is much appreciated!
If the Celtics were down 2-3 what would you do?
Down 2-3, I would likely change my opinion on game 6 entirely. I think the 76ers would play with a "smell the blood in the water" mindset and those old Celtic legs may not have the wherewithal to play 2 more games. So I would likely hedge a portion of the series bet.
Since they are up 3-2, I think the Celtics mindset is "one more game", and even more importantly, we need some rest before we play the Heat... even if they did somehow lose tonight... the game seven mindset would still be "one more game." IMO, the Celtics are motivated from many angles tonight, and this would not be the case IMO if they were down 2-3.
Just some of my thoughts!