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Like the Hawthorn play down. BOL this weekend (also liked the dogs as best play of the round last night but couldn't pull the trigger against my cats)

Adelaide v Collingwood

Adelaide
5-3 ATS
2-2 as fave
3-1 as underdog
2-2 at home

Collingwood
2-6 ATS
2-4 as fave
0-2 as underdog
1-2 away from MCG

Adelaide 
Average 
FOR 106.75 
AGAINST: 79.25

Home
Average 
FOR 102.5
AGAINST: 69.25

Collingwood
Average 
FOR 93.5 
AGAINST: 86.75

Away from MCG
Average 
FOR 103
AGAINST: 69

With Key midfielder Swan and defender Reid out of the Collingwood line up im keen on Adelaide to win this. They have a dominant midfield paring of Dangerfield and Thompson. Walker is stil out for Adelaide but Tippett, Callinan, Porplyzia, Petrenko will provide headaches fro the Pies defence. Adelaide has allowed just 69 points against at home and 79 overall - 

Adelaide have averaged just 21 shots against them and are having 29 per game themselves.

Collingwood have allowed 26 shots per game and are averaging 26.

I like the crows to win here.

Bet Adelaide -12.5 @ $1.954 / -105

St Kilda v Sydney

St Kilda 
3-5 ATS
2-3 as Fave
1-2 as Dog
3-1 at Etihad

Sydney
5-3 ATS
3-2 as Fave
2-1 as Underdogs
2-1 Away


StKilda
@Docklands 2012
Average 
FOR: 110 
AGAINST: 69

Sydney
all games
Average 
FOR: 101
AGAINST: 71

away
Average 
FOR: 91
AGAINST: 81

Head to Head - Last 10
St Kilda won 6
Sydney won 4

Sydney have won last 2

Last 5 at Etihad
Sy Kilda 4-1 

St Kilda have won 13 of their last 20 at Etihad 
In those 20 games the average score against has been 75 with 90 points being scored against just 4 times - however they have allowed 92 and 98 in the last 2 games. 

Sydney have won 5 of last 10 at etihad stadium, they have averaged 84 for and 89 against in those 10 games, scoring over 100 x3 and under 70 x 3 and have allowed 100+ x 5 and under 70 x4.
They have managed a 1 points win a 2 pt win and a 1 points loss in the last 10 at etihad. 


St Kilda 13-4 ATS in their last 17 at Etihad (2011 & 2012)
Sydney 3-3 ATS in their last 6 at Etihad (2010 & 2011)

St Kilda are a very very good etihad stadium team, it is a significant home ground advantage. They are offensively approx 4 goals better at etihad over the past few years. This season they have allowed 30 points less a game and socre 23 more a game when at etihad compared to games away from this venue.
This can not be understated. 

St Kilda are down a ruckman and that will hurt but without Mumford the swans wont be able to expose that like the eagles did last week. 

I think this will be a close contest that could go either way.

Bet Either under 15.5 or draw at $2.60/+160 (Luxbet)

ADD EITHER UNDER 24.5 1.5 UNITS @ $1.70

Essendon -67.5 @-102

Essendon -67.5 @-102

bad bad beat on essendon with Jobe watson missing a goal from 10m out with 40 seconds left that would have made the margin 72 points. 

North Melbourne vs Brisbane

North
3-5 ATS
1-4 as fave
2-1 as underdog
2-2 at Etihad


Brisbane
4-4 ATS
2-0 as Fave
2-4 as Dog
2-1 Away


North
2012 averages
FOR: 111
AGAINST: 99

@etihad
FOR 110
AGAINST 103

Brisbane
2012 averages
FOR: 81
AGAINST: 87

away
FOR 72
AGAINST 90

Brisbane at Ethiad
2-8 last 10
last 10 ave total 180 with no total over 199
2010 onwards are 1-7 ATS at etihad.


Last 5 Brisbane won 3 North 2.
L5 average total 175.8 - 199,132,177,191,180

Bet Total UNDER 192.5 @ $1.91 bet365

Fremantle vs Adelaide

Fremantle:
3-6 ATS
As Dog 2-4
Home: 2-3

In 2011 Freo were just 3-9 ATS at home.

Adelaide
5-5 ATS
As Fave: 2-3 
Away: 3-1


Fremantle
2012 Averages
FOR: 75.5
AGST: 79

2012 home averages
FOR : 69
AGST 66

Adelaide
2012 Averages 
FOR: 100
AGST 79

2012 Away
FOR: 111
AGST: 89

Adelaide @ Subiaco 2007-2011
FOR 72
AGST 98


Last 10 games between Fremantle and Adelaide
3 at Subiaco
7 at Football Park

Split at 5-5
Fremantle are 2-1 last 3 @home vs Adelaide

Last 10
Average Total - 162.5
High - 227 (2007)
Low - 115 (2007)
1 game over 190
3 games 180-190
1 game of 175
then 4 games less than 160 total pts.

I am very keen on Adelaide here. Taylor Walker returns to an Adelaide team that got a bit of a reality check and a fall back to earth from Collingwood last week. The Crows went into the last quarter with a six-point lead in a low-scoring contest - the lead changed 16 times. It was greasy with the early rain and the Crows lost their edge in the clearances because of this. Adelaide midfield was beaten for only the second time this season - i believe they were not accountable on Beams and Sidebottom who had 77 possessions between them. Adealide had more inside 50s than the pies but failed to convert them - just 19 shots and 6.13 from 49 inside 50s.

Freo can not challenge them in these areas. Freos mids are non existent - WCE absolutely smashed them in this area last week. WCE had over 100 more possessions than the Dockers.
Freo managed just 30 inside 50s - WCE had over 60.


Freo were a disgrace last week and there is no imminent fix. They got smashed by the Hawks, they struggled and took forever to beat a Port side without Shultz or Pearce, They scraped by the winless Suns and before that played abut 20 good minutes against Carlton. Since beating St Kilda 6 weeks ago they have been diabolical. 

I am very keen on Adelaide here - i think they win this and win it well. Tight early as Freo puts the clamps on but like they found last week, you cant do that all game against good opponents and win - Like West Coast did there, Adelaide will break free at some stage and as the Dockers can not apply scoreboard pressure, they crows will kick away. Despite getting a throashing from Hawthorn - Adelaide have the 3rd best defence by points against in the league - only WCE and Carlton have had less points kicked against them. Freo are ranked =5th in this area. the unders is a big play here - doubt the total will top 150

Bet Adelaide -8.5 @ -110/$1.91 (bet365)
I had this line closer to 20.5

waiting on a total...

St Kilda v Richmond
@Etihad - Friday Night

St Kilda 
4-5 ATS
2-3 as Fave
4-1 at Etihad

Richmond
7-2 ATS
4-2 as Underdogs
1-0 at Etihad


St Kilda
2012
FOR 101.5
AGAINST: 84.33

@ETIHAD
FOR 110
AGAINST: 72

RICHMOND
FOR 96.5
AGAINST 87

AWAY FROM MCG
FOR 84
AGAINST 78

In their last 14 meetings with Richmond, St Kilda are 13-0-1
4 of the last 5 have been wins to the Saints and a draw last year at the MCG. Wins of 3,21,38,56 points. 

Richmond have won just 2 of their last 10 games at Etihad. In those 8 losses they have not got within 10 points of anyone.
In their last 7 games at etihad they have failed to keep their opponents under 100 points averaging 116 against.

St Kilda have won 11 of their last 14 at Etihad.
In those 14 games the average score against has been 69 with 90 or more points being scored against just twice - they allowed 92 and 98 the two games prior to last weeks win. No team has scored over 100 against them in this period. 
In the last 14 StKilda have scored an average of 100 points with their output increasing this year - they have been held under 100 just once at etihad this season and even at the end of last year had improved their offensive output - In their last 9 H & A games at etihad they have averaged 110ppg with 7 over 100.

St Kilda are a very very good etihad stadium team, this is a significant home ground advantage and one of the biggest in the league. They are offensively approx 4 goals better at etihad over the past few years. This season they have allowed 27 points less a game and scored 23 more a game when at etihad compared to games away from this venue.
This can not be understated. 

I think Richmond played to their absolute best last week, they got their big scalp. I think they will be due a let down here after challenging a few top sides early season, beating Sydney and then Hawthorn. 
I cant help but think StKilda have been slightly under rated, especially at home and that they will present a significant challenge to the tigers.

I would have had this line St Kilda -9.5
This opened St Kilda -2.5 and has now moved to pick em.

I think is St Kilda are a really solid bet and we may yet get them as a dog. 

No movement here.

Bet St Kilda to win 1-39  points @$2.56 / +156