Bet 1.5 Units West Coast v Hawthorn - Either team UNDER 24.5 points or draw @ -135
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Bet 1.5 Units Sydney v North Melbourne - Either team UNDER 24.5 points or draw @ -135
Bet Sydney v North Melbourne OVER 175.5 @ -110
North Melbourne -78.5 @ -110
Geelong -23.5 @ -110
1.5 Units - Collingwood vs Essendon Either Side 1-24 or Draw @ -134
Fremantle vs Carlton either team under 15.5 @+185
nice collect at +185 there.
2 plays today - both taken earlier in the week. Nice Shopping on North Melb line which has crept out to 85.5 now
1-1 on todays games.
North Melbourne fail to cover with shocking inaccuracy. Geelong get the job done without trouble.
Bet West Coast Eagles -19.5 @+102 (pinnacle) vs Richmond Tigers.
Adelaide vs Port Adelaide Either under 24.5 or draw. 1.5 units @ -130
Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood
Despite their past 2 wins, i rate the Bulldogs in the bottom 5 teams this year. They struggled in patches last week before beating expansion club GWS and were largely uminpressive beating the 0-5 Melbourne the week prior. It was just 3 weeks ago that St Kilda handed the Bulldogs a 63 point loss. In Round 1 it was a 49 point loss to the Eagles. In the StKilda game the Dogs struggled to score and i can see that again tonight. collingwood are one of the best defensive teams of the past few years and should be able to shut the Bulldogs down. The line is 39.5 and at just 10 points a quarter, I have Collingwood 50+ ahead at the end of the night.
Bet Collingwood -39.5 @ +108
The Bulldogs played well tonight, certainly their best game of the year & Collingwood are lacking their intensity of past years.
Essendon vs Brisbane
The line is out to Essendon -35.5 here, not one i am keen on taking either way. The angle i like here is that essendons last 10 games at Etihad Staum have all totalled 196+ - the Total has opened here at 190.5 which suprised me. Essendon have had 30+ scoring shots in 4 of the 5 games to date, where Brisbane have allowed the lies of Carlton to have 39 when they played. Essendon have allowed 79+ against in all games & i think that is something Brisbane can achieve here, leading to a score closer to 200.
Bet OVER 190.5 -110 (bet365)
Geelong vs Melbourne
In the corresponding fixture last year Geelong won 233 to 47 in what was the second largest winning margin of all time. However, i like the unders here. Skilled Stadium is being redeveloped - currently it is missing a grandstand. This means the wind gets in one point of the arena and swirls making ball control difficult. In 3 games at Skilled (including preseason) since the redevelopment begun, the totals have been 157,159,140. Add to that is the forsecast for wind and showers of rain. I believe melbourne will struggle to score here this year they have had just 13 shots at goal v WCE, 16 v StKilda, 19v Richmond whilst having 22 v the Bulldogs and & 23 v Brisbane. Geelong has had one of the better defences for the past few years and it excels at home. Since the start of 2011 they have allowed an average of just 17 shots at goal by opposition teams. This year Melbourne have averaged 18 shots per game with a low of 13 - I can see melbourne struggling to have over 18 shots - this will equate to a low scoring game. with the wind and rain I cant see Geelong scoring highly as inaccuracy increases, they have not been a high scoring team this year, with only 19 and 20 shots at goal the past 2 weeks and averaging just 24 per game for the year to date.
UNDER 190.5 -110 (bet365)