Normally at this time of the CBKB season, we are reeling off consecutive winning days in the midst of a 60% or better run over 200-300 games. Most of you have experienced this virtually every year. Unfortunately, LOSING STREAKS CAN OCCUR AT ANY TIME!
After handicapping sports since 1979, I have suffered my share of losing streaks. NO ONE IS IMMUNE! My experience has taught me that there are 3 elements that make up losing streaks.
1. BAD HANDICAPPING. I use a blend of statistical, situational, and technical handicapping (in the form of home/road dichotomies and coaching personality trends). Each of the teams in the game is evaluated. The secret is to know which factors are accorded more weight and use the conclusion to seek value in the line. When my analytical abilities flow correctly, huge winning streaks result … when they don’t, I must bear the unpleasant results.
2. POOR GAME SELECTION MANAGEMENT. Most days I thoroughly analyze 2 or 3 times as many games as I release as rated plays. This is especially true on the massive Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday cards. Winning streaks result when I use my experience to weight the selections accurately, releasing over 60% winners. On losing nights and during losing streaks, the games I throw out, almost always win. It is a fine line. Fortunately, I believe my experience gives us a huge edge in this area. It is in no small part a reason for the massive winning streaks. It is also a major reason why my selections are the all-time net profit winners. Unlike many others, I PUSH WINNING STREAKS TO MAXIMIZE THEM.
3. CLOSE LOSSES AND BAD BEATS. At this time of year, CBKB final scores are approximately 7.5 PPG on average from the opening line. 42% of the games fall within 5 points (a coin flip) of the opening line. To win 60% (60 out of every 100 games), we must win 21 of the 42 “coin flips” (50%), then win 68% of the remaining 58 games (39 wins) to attain a 60% average. When close losses outnumber close wins, it is in an integral part of a losing streak. Witness the chart below that outlines our results on close games from Friday, February 13th through Tuesday, February 17th.
GAME RATING: CLOSE (5 PTS OR LESS) WINS -- CLOSE (5 PTS OR LESS) LOSSES
3* 1 2
2* 2 8
1* 1 4
TOTAL 4 14
As you can see from the above chart, the 4-14 ATS record on close results makes up for the entire number of games we are below .500 in the previous 5 days.
HOW TO HANDLE A LOSING STREAK
Now that we know what the ingredients are in our losing streak, let’s look at ways that we can handle the resulting emotions.
1. Always refer to your Money Management principles to ensure you are not “chasing” and staying within the proper confines and parameters of its principles.
2. Live with faith and hope, rather than fear, knowing your Money Management will guide you, thus removing negative emotions from the equation.
3. Believe the reality THAT WINNING STREAKS ALWAYS FOLLOW LOSING STREAKS. With patience and discipline, the next winning streak will evolve.
4. TRUST … that your handicapper will use his expertise and experience to use better game selection management and handicapping principles to result in the next winning streak.
I look forward to having you along as a long-term member of my winning team, knowing that our next winning streak is about to begin.
Joe Gavazzi