really? looking back over the last 100 plays of mikes I don't see a single instance where a half point mattered?
dalupus really? looking back over the last 100 plays of mikes I don't see a single instance where a half point mattered?
You can't use 100 plays as a sample size. You need thousands of plays to create accurate push charts. There are some numbers worth less than 5 cents in the NFL, a few more in CFB. In CBB and NBA there's not a single number worth less than 5 cents
You want a handicapping tip? Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a bitch, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more. I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice
"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"
i take that back. there is 1 push on CT in CFB for a free pick but looking back I got this line:
Reduced Football 368 Connecticut +3 -102* vs NC State
but you aren't getting the wrong end of the number on all the plays.
say they were all worth 10 cents. That would mean you would need to lose a half point 1 out of every 3 plays to even break even.
Hell you can just buy the half point if you are so convinced it matters. As long as you only buy the half 1 out of every 3 games you would break even.
Basically you would need to lose 1 out of every 20 plays by a half point AND that be one the plays where you were off his number by a half. So basically presuming mike wins at a 50% clip (which of course he does better) that would mean that 1 out of every 10 loses would need to be by a half point, more or less, which clearly isn't the case. AND of these 1 of 10 loses, it would have to be one of the games where you couldn't get the line he had.
getting the best lines DOES matter but not at the expense of paying 5 cents of juice on EVERY single play you make. to think of it another way. would you pay -115 on every play you make to make sure you get the best number? That is essentially what you are doing.
honestly, this just goes to show you that OTHER SPORTS is really important this time of year. As i said in another thread:
I had a DOUBLE STAR on the Packers. I've had a DOMINANT NFL season, even with this "loss" and i just don't know if i can bet and give out selections in the NFL. I really have to ponder this.
Woulda/Shoulda, it all doesn't matter. You simply can't handicap replacement refs. And as the pressure builds, it's only going to get worse. Don't forget that.........
I am my own source. It's not a run when you do it over and over again with consistency and a mentality that you've done it before.
In nearly "5" years at pregame, if you COMBINED every SPORT SEASON together, i have turned a strong profit in EVERY SINGLE SPORT EXCEPT BASEBALL. Of all the things i've done here at pregame, this is EASILY what i'm most proud of. That's LONG TERM WINNING.
http://www.mikehook.com
As always, thanks for that to continue to follow my work. Much, much appreciated