Point Blank – April 28, 2017
NBA Weekend – The Game Inside the Game…The betting markets don’t want to chase Chase, but I do…
Friday brings an NBA triple-header to the board and then possibly a bit of a respite – if the Wizards, Celtics and Jazz close their series out it will mean the Association goes dark until Monday. While limiting the opportunities for action that is not a bad thing for those involved in the daily run around the MLB base-paths; we are just getting to the time of the season in which many of the key numbers begin to kick in, which can open up edges across so many key categories. I’ll get to some of those regarding Chase Anderson in a moment.
To help set up the weekend boards it will be Jukebox Friday’s here throughout the spring/summer months. Today I won’t even pretend that I can connect the selection to anything on the sporting boards through some play-on-words; it will be the recent Bob Weir and Trey Anastasio cover of Lady Gaga’s “Million Reasons” spinning because it simply deserves to be played -
Now on to the games…
WASHINGTON/ATLANTA – On Bradley Beal, and the psychology of a shooter
It would go into the “Duh” files that the Wizards are going to need Beal to make shots if there is to be a deep run in these playoffs. The chemistry is there to be able to get through the Eastern Conference bracket, but it is a fragile one that leaves little margin for error. Each player must play their role, and the bench is still difficult to trust.
That takes us to the conundrum for Beal as Game #6 in Atlanta approaches. He played a solid floor game on Wednesday, with 27 points on 11-22 from the field, adding five rebounds, and how about three steals and three blocked shots on defense. His effort came from an acknowledgment of what it is going to take to advance at this stage, and he followed up with this in the post-game - “That’s what we have to do. It’s playoff time. It’s winning time, and we’re going to do whatever it takes to get a win. We know that we can’t do it unless we get a stop. Whatever it takes, whether it’s rebounding, getting steals, blocking shots. Everybody plays a role. Everybody plays a part.”
But might there still be a problem? Beal put that overall stat line together despite shooting 1-9 from 3-point range, which drops him to 12-50 beyond the arc in the series, that coming after he knocked those shots down at a 40.4 percent clip during the regular season.
Beal True Shooting Percentage
Season 60.4%
Playoffs 50.5%
This leads to a key question for Game #6, and also one for evaluating players in general – does the spark from his all-around play on Wednesday bring Beal the confidence to step up and knock down his long-range shots, or does that remain a separate issue? It will matter should there be a Game #7 in Washington on Sunday, and if not it will certainly matter for the second round.
BOSTON/CHICAGO – Isaiah Canaan was fine guarding Isaiah Thomas, but if your PG can’t create, this is a tough defense for Jimmy Butler to face…
The Bulls have already made it known tonight that Canaan will get his second straight start at PG tonight, Rajon Rondo’s thumb simply not where it needs to be for him to be able to give it a go. It brings a key aspect of basketball into play as we get deep into a series – now that the opponents know the one-on-one aspects of each other rather well it comes down to adjustments, and the Bulls face a lot of limitations in that regard.
One of the running themes here in this series is Fred Hoiberg still just learning his way in the NBA and not ready yet for this stage, and there was something in the Game #5 aftermath that made the files from Dwyane Wade that is a “tell” on that front - "When you're in a series like this, small details are very important. They got some things on us that we didn't want to give up in late in the fourth."
Indeed part of that 29-16 Boston domination of the final stanza was finding ways to exploit the Chicago defense, but there was also the matter of the Bulls not getting into an offensive flow, and that included Jimmy Butler going 0-2 from the field, with one turnover and no assists, over his 7:48 in that final stanza. I believe that goes to Hoiberg and Canaan, and what may come front-and-center tonight. Canaan had the rather stunning stat line of four turnovers and zero assists for his 36:10 on the floor, and a big part of the fourth quarter struggles by Chicago were based on his inability to generate an offensive flow.
Here is why that is a particular issue – while Butler is one of the best one-on-one offensive players in the league, the Celtics defense is pretty well-staked in terms of guarding his position. From Hoiberg - "Bradley does a great job crawling underneath Jimmy. He’s a great defensive player. They have three of the best defensive wing players in the league with Crowder, Bradley and Smart."
And now those three players have five games worth of getting to know Butler, with the savvy of Brad Stevens to back them, which may mean even fewer openings this evening.
Canaan’s defense was solid in Game #5, helping to hold Isaiah Thomas to 6-17 from the field, but making the offense work was another matter entirely - the Bulls turned the ball over on 17.3 percent of their Wednesday. Hence why I will be in play with #510 Chicago Team Total Under (8:05 Eastern), with 100.5 available in the early trading and the opportunity for a 101 out there. The Bulls have only managed 93.0 per game in the three outings without Rondo, and I see their ability to make adjustments as being weaker, not stronger, as the series progresses.
LAC/UTAH – Did you notice how effective Paul/Redick/Jordan were on Wednesday (and the Clippers lost anyway, which means…)
In noting that NBA playoff series are much about adjustments as a key part of Celtics/Bulls above, it leads right into this one. Having lost each of the last two games the Clippers need to be able to tweak if they are to stay alive, but what if there just are no answers to be found? To put that into perspective consider the Game #5 outcome.
Chris Paul was superb again, with 28 points nine assists and only two turnovers. De’Andre Jordan ramped his playing time up to 39:42, with 14 points on an efficient 6-8 from the field, and a dozen rebounds. LAC also finally got the break-out game from J.J. Redick, who has had so much difficulty getting away from the defense of Joe Ingles, Redick scoring 26 points in 34:14, knocking down 7-12 from the field and 9-10 at the FT line. Yet those three performing the way they did could only lead to a 96-92 home loss. Naturally it comes down to the supporting cast -
FG Pts
Paul/Redick/Jordan 23-39 68
Other LAC 6-30 24
Which has to make Paul feel like there isn't much behind him, especially without Blake Griffin distracting the attention of the defense. And it has been. While Paul is good enough to work through that, he doesn’t have a lot of help when he is out there, and of course there is the issue of what happens when he has to sit –
Net PP100 Minutes +/-
Paul In 182 +3.6
Paul Out 58 -10.8
And in the two games without Griffin -
Paul In 76 -2.7
Paul Out 20 -17.8
In the two games that Griffin has not played at all the Clippers have been out-scored 92-64 in the paint, and have only been able to grab 43.3 percent of the available rebounds. So there is work to be done, but given the available pieces just what is there that Doc Rivers can maneuver with?
My set-up here is more about why I am not playing, rather than what I am playing on. At another time there would be a temptation to begin looking at LAC should a +7 show, this being an instance in which the markets do not seem to want any part of Zig Zag to a favorite off of a loss. But the Jazz are much deeper and have so many more options right now I would have preferred to find a way to get them in play at a lower price, than back the Clippers at a higher one.
WASHINGTON/BOSTON – If you think the Wizards are better (which I do), what is the best way to play this
For the NBA to be forcing Wizards/Celtics out there at 1:05 Eastern this afternoon is simply stupid, but that is what this league consistently did during the David Stern years, and apparently is not ready to change – the league lessens the quality and integrity of its product purely for television purposes. In any sane sporting world would you force two teams that won road games on Friday night to have to come back and start a new series this quickly, and also this early in the day?
But of course television $$$ talks, though that is about to change in a major way going forward – the one thing not being talked about nearly enough across the Mediaverse in the aftermath of the ESPN downsizing this week is that every professional sports league should be extremely worried; the best TV deal they are likely ever going to get having been the last one they signed.
So what does that mean in terms of how to approach this series? It creates a conundrum. I believe the Wizards are better than the Celtics, though depth is an issue. And depth can be an issue on Sunday if the starters bring heavy legs, which means the 43:56 that John Wall played in Atlanta comes front-and-center. Does the early start to this series, and the first three games being played across five days, make that depth too much of an issue? Not necessarily.
Here is where the stupidity of the league comes into play. Wizards/Celtics will play today and Tuesday in Boston, then Thursday in Washington. When is Game #4? Next Sunday, followed by Game #5 not being until the following Wednesday. That shows the absurdity of forcing the teams to play today, when there will be multiple-day breaks before #4, #5 and #7 should the series go that long. But it does mean a respite for the Washington starters.
So what is the plan? I will sit back and watch today, my financial interests calling for a rooting interest in Boston, to set up a series bet on Washington should the Wizards lose Game #1. This is four court changes in seven days for Wall, off of 124 minutes in the last three games, so his legs may not be there. I don’t see value in playing Boston at the price point (I do get Under chimes at 217 should the markets continue to run in that direction), but at least a Celtics win could set something up going forward.
UTAH/LAC – Is it as simple as calling this Chris Paul’s game?
There were all sorts of plaudits given to Paul in the post-mortem of the LAC Game #6 win at Salt Lake City, and he earned them. For the series it has been 27.3 ppg on a 63.0 True Shooting Percentage, with 60 assists vs. only 16 turnovers, along with 31 rebounds and 12 steals. And that raises the rather obvious question, but also the most important one, for Sunday – does that layer of experience that Paul has, and only Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson from the Jazz can come close to matching, make the difference?
Part of the Game #6 flow also came from better ball movement by the Clippers as a team, and some of that started from the get-go, with Austin Rivers moved into the starting lineup instead of Marreese Speights, Speights being an awkward fit with the first team. Not only did Speights not start, but he was limited to 9:40 off the bench, although he was effective in that stint (nine points, three rebounds and a +6 on the scoreboard). Rivers shot the ball well, which he cannot always be counted on to do, but also brings the ability to guard Joe Johnson better than just about any of the other Clippers at the #3 spot.
There was also something else the presence of Rivers created – the ability for LAC to play long stretches without J.J. Redick on the floor. Redick was only 1-4 from the field, with one rebound and one assist, over 20:31 on Friday, and has not been able to find much operating room against the defense of Joe Ingles in this series, shooting 18-45, including 8-24 from 3-point range. When Redick isn’t scoring he is also not much help in other areas, and there was a comfort zone in Game #5 when it was Paul/Rivers/Jamal Crawford on the floor.
The key to that, of course, is Paul, and Paul becomes the key again today. In a series that has produced nothing but single-digit outcomes this one is not going to break open, so it if it close, which team has the better end-game? Early in the series it was Utah executing better on offense via Johnson, but his workload is now almost 10 mpg more than during the regular season, and in the quick turnaround from Friday night to Sunday afternoon, being 35 years old may be a genuine factor. Even more reason why this comes down to Paul, and the fact that he got out of Game #5 at a reasonable 37:53 matters. I won’t have anything going in this one except rooting home a series ticket, but I would expect the LAC end-game to be just good enough to get it home.
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