Point Blank – April 24, 2017
Is it time for Washington to shoot better (though Markief Morris is no math Wiz)…When the guards get weary the Portland offense becomes dreary…The Pirates are fine, except for their offense, defense, bullpen and a mediocre starter (so what are the early Monday markets seeing?)
Cleveland has made it to the second round of the playoffs through the bare minimum of games, though the Cavaliers did it in unique fashion – the 16-point collective margin of victory was the lowest ever for a sweep since the opening round went to seven games, 10 fewer points than Oklahoma City/Dallas in 2012. Tonight Golden State has the opportunity to finish in four as well, but in Toronto and Atlanta we have matchups in which there has not been any dominance established by either side to this stage.
That means time to get to work, and the format will remain the same here throughout the playoffs, focusing on “The Game Inside the Game”, and isolating one key matchup aspect that can go a long way towards determining the next scoreboard outcome.
MILWAUKEE/TORONTO – Now the Bucks are the ones that have to find a way to run some offense
In setting up Game #4 of this matchup for the Weekend Edition the focus was on how the length of the Milwaukee defense was going to remain a series-long issue for the Toronto offensive style, and Saturday brought more of the same – the Raptors only managed 90.4 PP100. But squaring the series at 2-2 wasn’t about offense, although DeMar Derozan did step up after his 0-8 showing in Game #3 with 33 points, five assists, nine rebounds and four steals. That latter count was particularly important because it showed how aggressive Toronto was defensively – it was in coming up with 11 steals and six blocked shots that the tempo for the game was set.
Dwane Casey helped set that flow by going with 6-4/215 Norman Powell instead of 7-0/265 Jonas Valanciunas in the starting lineup, and it wasn’t so much Powell starting as him being in the rotation at all – he had only played 21 minutes combined over the first three games, before the 34:14 on Saturday. But the Raptors were a +12 when Powell was on the floor, and they dealt with the size of Milwaukee on the perimeter by getting smaller and quicker, forcing the Bucks to execute offense. In Game #4, that offense could not find a way. Milwaukee scored at a 78.4 PP100, turning the ball over on 21.7 percent of all possessions. To put that into perspective, the worst team in that category during the regular season was Philadelphia, at 16.4.
Toronto made an adjustment and it worked, now it is up to the Bucks to find a way to counter with some offensive designs, with the venue and the pressure changing. It wasn’t that Saturday’s loss was an uphill climb – Milwaukee still led with 5:40 remaining in the third quarter. But from that moment the Bucks only managed 23 points the remainder of the game.
Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton bother smaller players with their length on defense, but when having to face a flurry of defensive players on the other end of the court struggled mightily, combining for 10-32 from the field, with 11 turnovers vs. only four assists.
From Casey, regarding Antetokounmpo - “We were just trying to send as many bodies to him as we possibly could. P.J. (Tucker), D.C. (DeMarre Carroll), Patrick (Patterson), Norm (Powell) got to him; DeMar got switched onto him a couple of times. We wanted to make sure we sent early help, try to make it as congested as possible for him to see and find other people.”
Casey got that to work. Now it is up to Jason Kidd and his floor leaders to challenge, and while the Bucks took an early series lead by playing loosely and with abandon, Game #5 will tax their abilities to slow down and think through the game. Are they ready for this yet?
WASHINGTON/ATLANTA – Was it better Hawks defense in Game #3, or were the Wizards missing good looks* (* - though we sure as hell can’t use the math of Markief Morris)
The Hawks jumped out early on the Wizards and never did let them back in the hunt for Game #3, leading by 18 in the first quarter and never allowing the margin to get into single digits the rest of the way. One could chart the defense as being exemplary – outside of a 10-12 from John Wall, all other Wizards managed just 27-77 from the field, and 6-28 from 3-point range.
But the Washington players did not chart the defense that way, and it was intriguing to sort through their reactions across the board. It started with Wall - “We had a lot of great looks, a lot of missed shots. We have to be better.” Then from Scott Brooks, in referencing the struggles of Bradley Beal, who was 6-20 on Saturday and is shooting 39.7 percent in the series - “You know what? I like his looks. I’ve been saying it for the last couple of games. I like his shots. He’s just going to have to keep shooting them. We’re going to have to keep getting him open looks like we have. Every player will go through a stretch of games, a few games, where you’re not going to shoot the ball well. He’ll bounce back.”
But for both insight into the mind of an NBA player, and also some comic relief, let’s go to the math skills of Markief Morris - “We’re missing wide open shots. We must have had, like, 30 of them in the first half alone. It seemed like our legs were heavy or something. It was one of those days. We’ll bounce back. I’m not taking nothing away from them, but we’re better than that.”
For the record, Washington was 18-45 in the first half. But you probably get the point. The question now becomes where the balance lies between this being bad shooting or good defense, and the eye test does back up the Wizards a bit in their self-blame. And note that I called it bad “shooting”, not bad “offense”, because only the Clippers have a lower turnover rate in the playoffs so far, Washington only giving it up on 12.5 percent of possessions.
Wall has been terrific in the series, going 31-56 from the floor while creating so many opportunities for others, and Marcin Gortat has been an efficient 15-25, many of those right at the rim. But how about the rest of the supporting cast -
FG Pct 3-pt
Beal 27-68 39.7 6-27
Morris 13-36 36.1 3-11
Porter 8-20 40.0 2-8
Bench 27-70 38.6 6-26
That is rather abysmal. But note that even with that uninspiring success rate the Wizards are still averaging 107.0 points per game in the series. I am going to opt for a little game flow Zig Zag here and call for those shots to fall at a higher rate this evening, in particular with the expectation of a higher degree of aggressiveness from Washington after the one-sided proceedings in Game #3, and that will put #519 Washington Team Total Over (8:00 Eastern) in pocket, with 104 available across the board in the Monday morning trading.
GOLDEN STATE/PORTLAND – Now what happens to that Trail Blazers energy
In previewing Game #3 here the focus went to how much energy we could expect from Portland, the Trail Blazers having had that playoff success at home last spring to build some confidence, and Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum both coming in with fresh legs. And indeed they played as though their hair was on fire in the first half on Saturday night, building a 67-54 lead at intermission.
But four quarters can be a long time when you face major basketball limitations, which Portland has, especially when Jusuf Nurkic is not available. The Blazers were a +1 in the 16:40 that he was on the floor, Nurkic claiming 11 rebounds in that span, but it looks as though he may not be able to give it a go this evening. When he is not available Portland has the weakest front-court of any playoff team, and that simply forces the dynamic duo at guard to have to work too hard to keep the games competitive. What happens when they wear down? Let’s look at the combined Lillard/McCollum numbers in this series -
First Half Second Half
FG 37-70 20-64
Points 104 57
Team +/- +4 -51
On Saturday night that led to a late celebration by the Warriors, Andre Iguodala and company being able to make things happen so many different ways that even when playing short-handed, there is plenty of energy left for a second half surge.
It wasn’t just Kevin Durant missing on Saturday, but Shaun Livingston and Matt Barnes as well, but the Warriors team chemistry remained solid, and there were the continuing contributions from JaVale McGee in particular.
So after projecting terrific Portland energy for Game #3, what about tonight? It may be a much different pulse rate. Teams down 0-3 have a legacy of performing poorly, in particular if they know that they cannot win the series, which would almost assuredly be the Trail Blazers realization at this point. And it isn’t as though a win tonight would bring much of a reward – it only means going back to Oakland to get closed out on Wednesday. I don’t believe we see the early blistering pace that Saturday night brought, and with Lillard/McCollum both physically and mentally weary now, the Portland offensive execution may bog down whenever the Blazers can’t get into the open court. I’ll be biting off some #522 Portland Team Total Under (10:30 Eastern), with 106 as the value point.
In the Sights, Monday MLB…
Without Starling Marte and Jung-ho Kang I don’t think much of the Pirates offense, and a #24 OPS looks like their lot. With Andrew McCutchen back in CF I don’t think much of the defense, an early-season #20 in both PADE and BABIP allowed. The bullpen won’t be special in the long run, and neither will tonight’s starter Chad Kuhl. So the Monday markets rang a value bell when the Cubs dropped below -115 this morning, and with as low as -113 available it will be #901 Chicago (7:05 Eastern) in play.
The Cubs got off to a slow offensive start this season but have scored 39 runs over the last five games, and the pedestrian offerings of Kuhl can allow that surge to continue. Kuhl may develop into a journeyman starter that can eat innings, which is indeed a valuable commodity, but there doesn’t seem to be the pop from his stuff that indicates upside, and in particular note the highwire act he has been on this season – that 2.60 ERA has come despite too many walks (9.7 percent of batters faced) and too few ground balls (only 31.3 GB%), but he has had the fortune of none of the fly balls leaving the park yet. Of course xFIP adjusts for that and reads him at 5.18, nearly double ERA.
Brett Anderson brings no sex appeal to the markerplace, but I believe he can be a good fit with the Cubs defense behind him, and his ugly box score vs. Milwaukee in his last outing, leaving after allowing six runs over just 3.2 IP, is a classic example of how sometimes baseball dice can cloud things. Anderson had good command vs. the Brewers, with 42 of 60 pitches in the strike zone, and of the 19 batters he faced there were five strikeouts and zero walks. Of those that put the ball in play it was a 50.0 GB%, which is also Anderson’s target. But some days a ground-ball pitcher will have to face the ball being hit in the right places, and there was a single-game BABIP of .538 against him in that outing. Anderson won’t be special, but he will be good enough, and with the Cubs bullpen well-set for the latter stages, only having used Mike Montgomery on Sunday (Wade Davis and Carl Edwards still have not been scored on yet, over 17 appearances), this one is a value fit.
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)