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PB: 2017 Tourney Journey - On Understanding Depth

PB: 2017 Tourney Journey - On Understanding Depth
bdpregame
Joined: 10/26/2013
Posts: 25
Waterboy
Not Ranked

Must not forget pappahops as well.  Just another reason the daily PB column and all thread contributors are invaluable.  Thank you all.  

SportsHec8
Joined: 01/13/2014
Posts: 6349
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

These WBC games are just fantastic.

USA down 2-1 in the 8th and Pacman jones and HOSMER go deep to give us a 4-2 lead.

puffkit
Joined: 09/08/2013
Posts: 960
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

crazy fast 1H...........make sense for 2H byu-5? doesn't UTexAR run out of gas at altitude?  

gerry1123
Joined: 08/27/2013
Posts: 114
College Recruit
Not Ranked

Based on the current odds for the #1's-I couldn't find a Kansas line on 5 dimes, so it's based on ML odds for Carolina, Gonzaga, and Villanova-the payout for a $100 bet would be(drum roll please)....................$2.61.  A pretty safe bet, but not very lucrative.

Sorry, I thought the original post would show in my response.  This is for poster "Ashamosu" in reply to his question about whether to bet the #1 seeds on the ML, and what the payout would be.

sportsinvestingtoday
Joined: 10/25/2014
Posts: 1145
Professional
Not Ranked

Good Morning David,

I believe the market is undervaluing Florida in general.  Today they are -10.5 vs. ETSU.

UF lost three games down to the stretch to UK and Vandy 2x. Vanderbilt was simply a bad matchup for this team.  UF’s most glaring weakness has been its lack of scoring and defense from the center position. With starting center John Egbunu out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL, sophomore Kevarrius Hayes has struggled in Florida’s last two games, both against Vanderbilt. Hayes scored a combined four points on 1-of-8 shooting.

UF HC White attributed Hayes’ struggles to Vanderbilt center Luke Kornet, who ranks third in the conference in blocks.

“John has had his share of scoring with his back to the basket, but Kevarrius has as well,.....I think the last two games with our lack of interior production has a lot more to do with Luke Kornet than my bigs. I just do.” White said.

Height will not be a problem here, MTSU tallest number is only 6-9.

The backgrounds of these two teams, despite both playing at the D1 level, is remarkably different. Florida’s roster is made up of blue chip recruits, featuring two 5-star, four 4-star and three 3-star recruits. ETSU’s roster consists of five JuCo transfers and three D1 transfers from Indiana and Wichita State.  There is a tremendous talent gap.  And that will be seen here, ETSU turns the ball over at alarming rate 20.6% (307th in the country), UF forces TO's on 21.1% of the opponents offensive possession (32nd in the country). ETSU does get to the FT, but they are not very good there, shooting 69.8% (171th). UF gets to the the line as well and more importantly ETSU puts the the opposing to the team (225th in the country) and UF hits their FTs 72.6% (101st).  ETSU turnovers could lead to fast-break points and plenty of fouling.

When asked whether the Gators had lost momentum after losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, their third loss in their last four games, UF SG Allen answered immediately that they hadn’t. Teammate Kasey Hill agreed. Then Florida coach Mike White spoke. “I disagree with my guys,” White said Friday. “We obviously have lost momentum.” I can see HC White pushing his guys the full 40, and building margin to regain momentum.

Lastly, this game is being played in Orlando, 2 hours away from Gainesville, nearly a home game for UF.  It would appear the market has forgotten this UF team was 23-5 (13-2 in the SEC) less than a month ago.  Recent losses to a UK and Vandy brought there value down too much here.

I believe value exists on Florida at -10.5, interested to get your thoughts.

peterose4hof
Joined: 11/05/2015
Posts: 134
College Recruit
Not Ranked

I've lived in and around Florida my whole life and I can tell you Orlando will have ruckus crowds for UF & FSU.  It will feel like a home game for both teams this weekend.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12836
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

sportsinvestingtoday

I believe the market is undervaluing Florida in general.  Today they are -10.5 vs. ETSU.

UF lost three games down to the stretch to UK and Vandy 2x. Vanderbilt was simply a bad matchup for this team.  UF’s most glaring weakness has been its lack of scoring and defense from the center position. With starting center John Egbunu out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL, sophomore Kevarrius Hayes has struggled in Florida’s last two games, both against Vanderbilt. Hayes scored a combined four points on 1-of-8 shooting.

UF HC White attributed Hayes’ struggles to Vanderbilt center Luke Kornet, who ranks third in the conference in blocks.

“John has had his share of scoring with his back to the basket, but Kevarrius has as well,.....I think the last two games with our lack of interior production has a lot more to do with Luke Kornet than my bigs. I just do.” White said.

Height will not be a problem here, MTSU tallest number is only 6-9.

The backgrounds of these two teams, despite both playing at the D1 level, is remarkably different. Florida’s roster is made up of blue chip recruits, featuring two 5-star, four 4-star and three 3-star recruits. ETSU’s roster consists of five JuCo transfers and three D1 transfers from Indiana and Wichita State.  There is a tremendous talent gap.  And that will be seen here, ETSU turns the ball over at alarming rate 20.6% (307th in the country), UF forces TO's on 21.1% of the opponents offensive possession (32nd in the country). ETSU does get to the FT, but they are not very good there, shooting 69.8% (171th). UF gets to the the line as well and more importantly ETSU puts the the opposing to the team (225th in the country) and UF hits their FTs 72.6% (101st).  ETSU turnovers could lead to fast-break points and plenty of fouling.

When asked whether the Gators had lost momentum after losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, their third loss in their last four games, UF SG Allen answered immediately that they hadn’t. Teammate Kasey Hill agreed. Then Florida coach Mike White spoke. “I disagree with my guys,” White said Friday. “We obviously have lost momentum.” I can see HC White pushing his guys the full 40, and building margin to regain momentum.

Lastly, this game is being played in Orlando, 2 hours away from Gainesville, nearly a home game for UF.  It would appear the market has forgotten this UF team was 23-5 (13-2 in the SEC) less than a month ago.  Recent losses to a UK and Vandy brought there value down too much here.

I believe value exists on Florida at -10.5, interested to get your thoughts.

I am not a big fan of Florida in terms of moving forward - one of the notions that was a "Game Inside the Game" lead topic earlier in the season here was that the Gators just don't have those NBA prototype players to score at the end of a close game against tough competition. But what they do well, harass and guard on defense, has a chance to work in the matchup. Getting out into the open court means easy baskets, and there should be plenty of them. In the next round, a Florida offense that was only #123 in Effective FG% will come into play, but they may get enough easy chances today to build a margin, though the price point is right around where I had it (my #'s call it -11).

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