Point Blank – March 7, 2017
On Understanding Adrenaline in the Conference Tourneys…Looking for various Wildcats to be cutting down nets this week…When Kawhi Leonard makes some “Supernatural” plays, it is time to begin Peter Green Week….
We’re about to begin what for me is the single best few days of the sports calendar year in terms of both appreciating the various components that make up college basketball, and also increasing personnel wealth. The conference tournaments are their own unique sport in terms of the handicapping processes, and of particular advantage to the player is that in what will be wall-to-wall action from Wednesday into Sunday, the oddsmakers are dealing with the shortest shot clocks of the season, having to quickly price today’s winners into tomorrow’s matchups (as opposed to the regular season, when they know all settings well in advance).
There will be some sorting across various issues over the next couple of days, while also focusing in directly on several of the games, and for today there are even some tourney winner tickets to put into pocket. And with so much going on I will change things up a bit and bring the Jukebox into play each day, since you will need some moments of energy to get through this cycle. As promised after playing some classic Gary Moore on Friday there would be a natural connection to Peter Green, and why the hell not just make this Peter Green Week the rest of the way. I’ll go more into details about Green’s unfortunate career arc, also with some longer pieces as the tourneys commence, but today there is the ideal connection to Kawhi Leonard’s end-game vs. the Rockets on Monday – let’s go to “Supernatural”, Green on the lead with John Mayall & the Bluesbreakers (sorry, but live video is elusive - there will likely only be one such clip coming up) -
Item: On understanding Fatigue vs. Adrenaline
I don’t know if there is a more important subject than this one in terms of the next few days, and it is something that I have spent several decades studying. There is a lot of clinical material available (for those that want a quick overview, a piece by GS Krahenbuhl from the mid-70’s provides an intro), but for today let’s reduce it to something that brings a little common sense to the tournaments – these young athletes are capable of playing at a high level of energy as long as the prize is within reach, but it is when the reach is no longer there that a crash can happen.
There were already some examples of this during the regular season detailed here, in particular when a rather remarkable run by a depth-shy Syracuse team was put together – the Orange had a series of seven straight games in February in which they trailed in the second half, but were still alive to win the game, and they fought back to win four of them. It was in the eighth game of the sequence, when they fell behind by 16 in the first half at Louisville, that there was the crash (they lost 88-68). Instead of closing the gap, it increased.
Kansas would also be a good example, since there has been a focus here on how arduous the minutes have been for Frank Mason (37.2 per game in Big 12 play) and Devonte’ Graham (37.1). One could propose a theory that having to play that many minutes in a tough conference would physically wear players down, especially when we add a trip to Kentucky right in the middle of league play. But since the Big 12 schedule began Kansas has gone 10-1 SU in games decided by seven points or less – there has been a series of adrenaline rushes that has lasted over two full months.
Has the sum of all that led to a team that is more physically fatigued than other competitors at this stage? Perhaps, if the Jayhawks were an average team, or only had average goals. But part of succeeding through those close calls is a heightened level of confidence, and also the continuing high level of motivation ahead – first there was the goal win keep the streak of Big 12 championships alive; now comes the very real premise of winning the national championship. Whether Bill Self cares about this week’s slate in Kansas City, of course, is another matter entirely.
Now let’s get practical. A major part of handicapping through the tourney brackets would obviously seem to be charting the minutes played each night, and looking for teams that may run low on fuel. That approach is very much “conventional wisdom”, but it can also lead to frustration - as long as the teams have a prize within reach, a significant part of those fatigue notions can be negated, and become bankroll busters.
This is a once-in-a-lifetime moment for the players. Hell, even Mark Gottfried, who is likely coaching his final game for N.C. State today, can look his players squarely in the eyes in the locker room and remind them that there is a path to the National Championship – just go out and win the next 11 games, and they can make history. It won’t happen, of course, but the Wolfpack are allowed to believe until the scoreboard forces them to stop.
Here is how I play it – I only make small adjustments for fatigue in competitive matchups. By this time each team knows when they have a genuine chance to win, since they have been through a couple of months of conference play and many of these games are rematches. If they take the court knowing there is an opportunity, and if the game stays close, the blood keeps pumping.
I make bigger adjustments when the potential for the crash is visible, because the crash is often just that – a shattering moment in which the dream disappears, and when a team has been running on an added adrenaline rush, having to play out the final minutes of a one-sided game without that added energy can lead to some humbling blowouts.
A prototype of that “crash” would be from a game played across town from me on Saturday, Pacific vs. Gonzaga at the Orleans Arena. The Tigers won their WCC opener on Friday night, and had to come right back the next evening against one of the best teams in the nation. They came out loose, aggressive and with confidence, and were only down 27-25 at halftime, despite being underdogs of +28. They had the rush going. But then it got away, and once it did all of the positive energy was gone, a 21-5 Gonzaga close-out over the final 8:00 in which the Pacific players had nothing left. 82-50 final.
I will be diligently looking for some of these potential crash victims over the next few days, while also resisting settings in which some teams may look tired on paper, but still have enough adrenaline flowing to play beyond that. It is in learning to understand the difference between the two that edges can be found, and also some potential traps avoided.
Now let’s go to something for the pockets…
Item: It’s Wildcats week
I don’t do much with futures during conference tourney week for the usual reasons – there is too much vigorish taken from the pools to be able to find much value. But there are a couple of teams I will be getting behind because the handicap is there, and there is just enough value – the Wildcats of both Villanova (Big East) and Kentucky (SEC). Villanova works at -200 or less, and Kentucky at -130 or less.
First in terms of how to play it, it may come down to how your outs best present the opportunities. Often taking the teams on the Money Line in their first game, and then rolling it over, will bring a better return, so if you have that option available you should consider it, although Game #1 will not come cheap.
Now the handicapping particulars. While Villanova cut down the nets to win it all last April, that came after the Wildcats lost the Big East finals to Seton Hall, a game that Jay Wright’s team wanted, but could not secure because the Pirates played awfully well that night. I believe this veteran group will genuinely aspire to make amends for that, which also leads to the matchup notions – there isn’t anyone other than Butler than can stand up to them in this setting, and should there be a third go-round vs. the Bulldogs, the Wildcat motivation to turn around that earlier 0-2 will be extremely high.
As for Kentucky, I believe John Calipari may want to play three games in three days as much as any coach in the nation this week – his young team needs the work. They have gotten much better on the defensive end over the past two weeks, and the path here is not a difficult one, the SEC having another lackluster season. I have made note several times of Florida’s issue – the Gators can scrap and defend, but don’t have the end-game scorers needed at crunch time, and South Carolina is a B+ version of Florida.
There are going to be plenty of surprise over the days ahead, but I’ll be starting my portfolio with those pieces of chalk in pocket.
About Last Night, NBA…
If it is indeed going to be Rockets vs. Spurts in the second round of the Western Conference playoffs then the four head-to-heads already in the books tell us that there could be something special coming up in May. The 112-110 San Antonio win last night should also further something that the shrewd handicapper should have already been appreciating, and perhaps the NBA MVP voters can begin to grasp a little better – when all facets of basketball are considered, a strong case can be made that Kawhi Leonard is worthy of the honor.
If you didn’t see last night’s finish you can get a good look at the key sequence here, but for as dramatic as that was, knocking down a 3-pointer, blocking a James Harden shot a few seconds later, then grabbing a rebound and making a pair of FTs, it wasn’t anything all that new for Leonard.
The Spurs are on a 4-0 run over the past week in games in which they trailed in the final 2:00 of play, which is a rather neat trick to pull off, and keying that were big plays by Leonard on both ends of the court. First he nailed the jumper with 0:02 remaining to beat Indiana. Then it was a steal and layup down three in the final minute vs. New Orleans that helped get that game to OT. A big part of Minnesota scoring only five points over the final 4:30 of regulation on Saturday, before the T’Wolves lost in OT, was Leonard’s defense (Minnesota scored just 12 points over the final 9:30 of game action). And then came last night, when he was the one guarding Harden most of the fourth quarter, a span in which he not only held the Houston star to 1-5 from the field, but also scored 17 points himself.
From Pops - "The block is what makes him special. Obviously, the three, you know, Harden makes threes, Kawhi makes threes, Steph Curry makes threes. Everybody does that. But I don't know who goes to the other end and does what he does. Not that many people, on a consistent basis, an entire game, game after game."
Over those last four wins it has been 134 points, 33 rebounds, 23 assists (vs. only five turnovers), 13 steals and three blocked shots. That is brilliant basketball, especially his performances in the clutch moments. Yet for as much as the appreciation of Leonard elevates, it does raise questions about the Spurs – they needed every bit of that in order to escape those games. Is the supporting cast going to be good enough to make a playoff run?
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