Point Blank – February 24, 2017
The Game Inside the Game – Weekend Hoops…
If it’s Friday that means “The Game Inside the Game” here, as key matchup issues get brought into play that show some of the challenges in putting power ratings together, with particular focus points carrying far more weight in certain games than others. There is a lot of intrigue across this board.
The Weekend Edition from now until the end of the NCAA tourney will also be Guitar Time on the jukebox, since you are going to need some quality background to take you through the various Case Studies in Basketball Consciousness that we will be sorting through. Today it is time to reach back for a classic, the great Roy Buchanan, a flame that did not get to flicker nearly long enough, with “The Messiah Will Come Again”
Now let’s get to work…
SPURS/CLIPPERS – Could LAC be the second best team in the Western Conference by the end of the season (and some of this may stem from a lack of San Antonio upside)?
Spurs/Clippers did not get an overnight posting in the betting markets because the status of both Pau Gasol and Chris Paul is uncertain, but as we ponder what is a difficult game for the oddsmakers to price, we can address the challenges that all may have with LAC, one of the most difficult teams to power rate the rest of the way.
The statistical database of the Clipper performances is filled with a lot of meaningless games, those that had either Paul or Blake Griffin out (and some with both), and it now brings is the genuine issue as to whether the injuries may end up helping come playoff time, each player fresher for not having gone through the grind of the full campaign. Paul has missed the last 14 straight, and as for tonight this is how Doc Rivers detailed the reasons for not playing him at Golden State on Thursday – “He looked good the last two days but I thought he was a little bit hesitant. I just don’t think we should play him. He’s got to feel 100%. Tomorrow’s iffy. We won’t really practice on that one day, but that’ll get him closer. But we’ll see.” The first offering of San Antonio -4 and 212.5 is a Paul “doubtful” price; now we’ll see how the trading unfolds.
The reason for projecting LAC as high as #2 has to do with the issues that the other teams bring, which takes us to the Spurs. One of the reasons why I would like to see Paul on the court from a handicapping aspect is to see a battle with Tony Parker, because there are questions about just how much Parker has left in his tank, an issue in a Western Conference that offers Paul, Stephen Curry, James harden, Russell Westbrook and Mike Conley as playoff opposition at PG.
Parker’s minutes are down for fourth straight season so naturally a lot of the raw stats will also be lower, but it is when we get to the ratios and percentages that there is cause for alarm - he does not have that burst to get to the basket and finish as a scorer anymore. Let’s use a simple formula to lay part of that out, looking at his ratio of shots taken per 48 minutes, and shooting percentage -
Career 2017
FGA/48 19.9 17.3
FG% 49.4 47.2
Meanwhile Real +/- shows him to be a below average defensive player at this stage as well, again a result of losing some of that quickness.
Parker has the veteran savvy to make up for some of the physical decline, but it will take more than that in the Western Conference playoffs, and Patty Mills is still best kept at a ceiling of 20 minutes per game. For as well as the Spurs have played this season, might the 43-13 at the All Star break be a high water mark, the problem of just not getting enough from the PG position to maintain this win rate?
FLORIDA/KENTUCKY – Have the Wildcats grown up enough (at all?) since the first meeting
When the first go-round between the Wildcats and Gators was made a feature on these pages the focus dealt with whether Florida had the kind of step-up scorer to win a close end-game against class competition. That remains a legit question for Mike White’s team, but it was not an issue that night in Gainesville – for once the show was turned on John Calipari’s program, and it looked like Men vs. Boys the other way.
Kentucky has been going up against older players through the Coach Cal years, yet it has rarely been noticeable on the floor because the Wildcats were bigger and more talented, hence rarely being pushed around. At Florida they were, getting drubbed 88-66, including a 45-26 shellacking on the boards. Calipari felt that he could see it coming because his team had lost at Tennessee earlier in the week, and was playing at a level that left them vulnerable –
"Sometimes you gotta hit bottom. Maybe we have hit bottom and maybe we haven't hit bottom. But I knew after Tennessee we had an issue and I said, 'You're going to lose the next two or three if you don't change.' We're not passing the ball, we're turning it over, we're making hard plays, we're making cheap plays. We just kind of got away and we've gotta get it back.”
Florida won with basketball pressure and also toughness, consistently winning the battles for the loose balls. Now the focus goes to whether the Wildcats have solved the issues that plagued them in the fist encounter, and the jury is out. Kentucky has gone 5-0 SU but just 2-3 ATS since then, and one of those covers was by just 1.5 points. Outside of an 83-58 revenge rout of a precocious Tennessee team that is about as young as they are, it has not been great basketball.
This past week was not nearly as comfortable than the final scores will show. The Wildcats gutted out an 82-77 win as -7.5 at Georgia last Saturday, but that was with Bulldog key cog Yante Maten felled by an injury two minutes into the game. On Wednesday it was a 52-52 tie vs. rudderless Missouri with 8:00 to play before they eventually won 72-62. Kentucky had more than twice as many turnovers (17) as a team that closed as a +16.5 underdog (8).
Here was a key takeaway from Calipari afterwards - "We had guys playing scared. If you're afraid of Missouri, how are you going to play in that (NCAA) tournament? Guys not playing consistent. Defensively, having some breakdowns. But we won, we move on. But we've got work to do with this team."
There will be a perception of Kentucky being a team with superb talent that should have a revenge swagger. We can put a checkmark next to the talent, but whether or not the swagger and toughness is there is uncertain.
PURDUE/MICHIGAN – On understanding how good the Boilermakers offense is (and the challenge John Beilein faces)
As noted here often, I believe John Beilein is as good of a game-day coach as there is in any sport. He is a master at taking the best of what he has and tweaking to compete at whatever matchup is thrown at him. I believe he has an awkward one when Purdue comes to down on Saturday, which does show on paper, but may be even worse than the stats indicate.
Let’s let the numbers tell the first part of the tale – Purdue is #18 in the nation in offensive efficiency, vs. a Michigan defense that is #100, and in Big 10 play it is #2 vs. #12. I believe it is worse than that, with the Boilermakers offense being an under-rated item.
One of the notions I have brought forward a few times this season is that offensive efficiency, while a good stat, is a bit flawed, because it can favor teams that exert heavy defensive pressure (like West Virginia at #14), or get a lot of production from the offensive boards (North Carolina at #5). Purdue doesn’t do that. The Boilermaker defense is #272 in TO% and #281 in steals, relying on patience in the half-court sets, and those sets do bring some fundamentals that matter – they are #2 in the nation in FTA/FGA, only Villanova rating better.
Hence the Boilermaker offensive production is what I would call “honest”, as in measuring real offense, and it has been rather good. They are #14 in Effective FG%, #5 from 3-point range, and a particularly meaningful #3 in Assists-per-FG (you could call them #2, behind Michigan State, since national leader Seattle plays in such a weak conference).
It stems from the terrific inside-out game that Matt Painter has to work with. Four different players have at least 80 assists, including 6-9/250 Caleb Swanigan, and while there is not a stat tracker yet for assists that lead to 3-point baskets, many of them come from Swanigan.
Opposing defenses have to pick their poison – not many defenders can check Swanigan down low, his 18.6 ppg a tribute to that, but if he is double-teamed he has become adept at kicking out to the open shooters.
Now Beilein has to pick from those poisonous options because his tools are limited – the Wolverine defense is #327 in the nation in guarding 3-point shots, and in Big 10 play they are dead-last at #14 in Effective FG%, rating #13 against both 2-point and 3-point attempts. So part of watching this one will be the learning experience that can come from seeing how Beilein decides to play it, if indeed he can come up with any kind of option that works.
Beilein failed to come up with defensive answers in his toughest matchup so far, a 102-84 drubbing at UCLA, and that just happens to be because the Bruins are very, very good on offense…
UCLA/ARIZONA – On appreciating the Bruins offense (if you are this good can you get away with weak defense)
You know the drill – a team has to play good defense to win a National Championship, or even be in a hunt for one, right? They just have to. It will almost assuredly be a talking point for the ESPN crew when UCLA takes on Arizona in front of the Saturday prime time cameras, the Bruins bringing a defense that is only #104 overall, and in particular does not bring much aggressiveness, rating #316 in turnover percentage. Sounds logical, right? But what if the offense is one for the ages…
First let’s note that much like the case with Purdue, we are talking about genuine offense in these numbers, the Bruins not getting many easy shots off of turnovers, and actually being weak on the offensive boards (#159). It is Lonzo Ball helping to create outstanding shot opportunities, part of why they are #9 in Assist/FG ratio, and Ball’s job is made easier because of the options, this being the rare team with six players averaging in double figures. So let’s look at the current UCLA offense in some historical context, first measuring the overall efficiency level against the national leader each season over the past decade -
2017 UCLA 125.4
2016 N CAROLINA 123.3
2015 WISCONSIN 127.0
2014 DUKE 124.1
2013 MICHIGAN 120.2
2012 MISSOURI 122.4
2011 OHIO ST 120.3
2010 DUKE 117.0
2009 N CAROLINA 119.8
2008 N CAROLINA 118.2
And in terms of one of the best measures, Effective FG%, it is rather remarkable – there has only been one team over the past decade that is within two percentage points of the Bruin accuracy rate -
Effective FG%
2017 UCLA 61.0
2007 FLORIDA 59.6
2014 CREIGHTON 58.9
Can that level of offense elevate the defense to the top? It makes Saturday’s game a prime study – in the three Bruin Pac 12 losses they still averaged 82.7 points, but allowed 89.7. They have won each of the first two revenge matchups, holding Oregon and USC to an average of 12 fewer points than the first encounter, but now comes the challenge of defending an Arizona offense they did not seem to even bother in the first meeting. The Wildcats exploding for 96 points at Pauley Pavilion, making half of their 68 shots, and getting off that many attempts, plus 21 free throws, while only turning the ball over seven times.
SYRACUSE/LOUISVILLE – The Orange depth redux; can you keep surviving in the ACC this way
The first battle between Jim Boeheim and Rick Pitino turned into a classic, Louisville escaping in the Carrier Dome in OT despite having a 12-point lead in regulation, the Cardinals leaving the door open by only knocking down 16-30 from the FT line (as bad as that was, note their 4-13 at North Carolina on Wednesday). It was one in a series of unexpected February rallies for the depth-shy Orange, who have not had Tyler Lydon or Andrew White leave the court for a single possession across the seven games, while John Gillon has also averaged 40 minutes per outing in playing 280 of the potential 290 (there were two OT periods).
Here is what has made it particularly special – in all seven of those games Syracuse trailed by at least seven points in the second half, yet Boeheim’s team scrambled back to win four of them, with the Louisville defeat coming in OT or there could have been a fifth. Is this a team with a special character that makes them impervious to fatigue?
There is one genuine upside of having a short rotation – a team develops a better chemistry, the players becoming accustomed to playing together, and the Orange do have that. But there are also the realities of what physical energy means, which turns the microscope another crank for Sunday, as they play their fifth road game in eight outings in February, and face a team with Sweet 16 and beyond potential for the fourth time in that span (a week ago I might have written Elite Eight, but Virginia calls for a lesser classification right now).
Here is the problem from the 78-75 Syracuse win over Duke on Wednesday – the energy really was lagging. The Orange lost the boards 35-25, and only came up with three steals and one blocked shot. That brought the Blue Devils a net of 13 extra scoring opportunities (17 more FG attempts, eight fewer at the FT line, the latter divided by two to get the overall count), which would call for a double-figure win if the shooting percentages were near even. They weren’t, with Syracuse holding a 53.2 to 39.1 edge overall, and in particular from beyond the arc, where it was 6-11 vs. 10-33. Ultimately that game may have been even more about what Duke did wrong, a defense in foul trouble only coming up with one full stop over the final nine trips by the Orange, rather than what Syracuse did right.
Could the case be made that instead of that win by the Orange being a tribute to their being impervious fatigue, it instead showed how vulnerable they really are right now? That becomes the spotlight point for the Sunday clash.
Item: The LHG still matters in some places (the focus turns to Gonzaga and Villanova)
Once upon a time the Last Home Game was a big part of my handicapping processes around this time, in an era in which most players did stay on campus for four years. It is not much of a big deal at all anymore, but there may be a couple of special settings on this weekend’s board – the LHG may really matter for Gonzaga and Villanova, because of how special the career arcs have been for their seniors.
For the Bulldogs it is not just about finishing the season unbeaten and ranked #1, which provides plenty enough reward for the home fans to cheer the team for the final time, but the opportunity to appreciate the Przemek Karnowski, who has developed into a skilled player over the course of his career.
Meanwhile for Villanova the sendoff for Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds (though the latter likely won't play) is likely the single most emotional setting there will be for such a game all season.
These games do bring a handicapping headache when the home team is heavy chalk – while the added incentives are there to play well, and in particular note that it is not just the seniors stepping up, but the way the other players will go at a fever pitch to send those seniors out in style, there can be an end-game problem. Often if a big lead has been built the coaches will look for that crescendo moment, which means taking the veterans off the court to standing ovations.
Scouring the board for these settings will not bring as many opportunities as it once did, and there is that caveat that sometimes the ATS ride is awkward because the best players for these teams may not be on the court over the closing possessions, but it is still a worthwhile exercise. It is not just one for the bankroll, but also for the soul of the handicapper – appreciating the Hart/Jenkins/Reynolds era at Villanova is reminder of what makes sport so special.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA…
This is one of the deeper boards for the pocket of the season, so let’s isolate a pair, in part putting #629 Purdue (note the time change to 4 PM Eastern) out there in order to not have to answer questions – yes based on the matchup notes in this edition of PB, and the Podcast discussion, the Boilermakers fit the value equation, with some +1 available (a shopper can get to +1.5). Then we head to the Big 12 for one more, with #622 Texas (6:00 Eastern) a fit at +8 or better, in a game that Kansas should play well enough to win, but may lack the physical energy and concentration level to build the margin into double figures.
This is a different team for Bill Self this season – the brilliance of Mason/Graham/Jackson in end-game situations has had the Jayhawks finding ways to win without necessarily dominating the opposition – they are 10-1 in Big 12 games decided by seven points or less. Now they have already clinched a tie for the conference championship, with some post-game celebration after dumping TCU on Wednesday, but note that even in winning that game by 19 points Mason was on the court for 39 minutes and Graham for 38. That shows how little depth there is. Now it is not just the physical energy waning a bit through the difficult schedule, but also the mental focus – there is a quick turnaround before hosting Oklahoma on Monday night in what will be a particularly emotional LHG setting for Mason and Landen Lucas. That isn’t the only distraction that Kansas is playing through – Graham spent some time in jail this week for failing to make a court appearance, while Jackson was issued a summons on Friday and charged with one criminal count for damaging an automobile after an altercation outside of a Lawrence establishments in early December.
Texas does not always play well but the Longhorns do play hard, and having been off since Monday they bring the physical freshness to let it all hang out here in the attempt to get a signature win that can salvage a disappointing season. Note that despite the struggles that come with an inexperienced roster Shaka Smart’s team is 4-3 straight-up in home league games, with none of the defeats by more than three points, and there are no overwhelming matchup disadvantages – when we isolate to Big 12 only play, the Longhorns have been better than the Jayhawks both defensively and on the boards, which is enough to keep them in the hunt here.
For your listening pleasure...
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