Point Blank – February 3, 2017
Super Bowl Saturday on the NCAA Hardwoods…And then on to Sunday…
There is a football game that seems to be capturing the attentions and imaginations of a lot of folks taking place on Sunday, and given the particular matchup we just might be in for some compelling entertainment. But that may not even be the sporting highlight of the weekend – this is also close to being a Super Bowl Saturday on the NCAA hardwoods, with showdowns pitting prime contenders across several major conferences.
To best set the flow I am going to bring those hoops matchups to the lead, and take a tour of “The Game Inside the Game”, going beyond power ratings to envision what the major keys will be as the action unfolds on the court, a most invaluable handicapping approach, and one that may well point to some pointspread edges. You will need to stoke the imagination a bit for this process, so with a long read ahead the juke box is plugged in with something appropriate – with tribute having been paid to Butch Trucks and the Allman Brothers over the past week, let’s take the ride that “High Falls” provides, this version a classic from 1998 that is without video, but in truth that would almost be a distraction from the sounds. Just let them take you wherever your imagination wants to go (and for those not familiar with the catalog, you can take a break from some of your Super Bowl props studying by doing Dickey Betts searches) –
As for Sunday, I am going to combine all of the weekend action into this thread. Earlier in the week I had thought of opening a separate Super Bowl edition but because many readers will be on the go, and using mobile devices, the suggestion has been made that following one thread is easier, even if there are some hoops mixed in.
Now let’s get to work, with showdowns across the Big 10, SEC and PAC 12 that bring some terrific games to focus on, and I will go to them in rotation order -
Item: NCAA Saturday - The Game Inside the Game
Yes, you have your power ratings, past trends, schedule charts and all sorts of tools to work with for each hoops game. But as we all know those ratings look much different once the opening tipoff takes place, and the realities of the particular matchup unfold. Today I will go to some prime elements to focus on that you can bring into play in your own handicapping, these addressed in their rotation order (note the time changes) -
PURDUE/MARYLAND (Noon Eastern) – The Purdue defense does not look as good on the court as it does on paper
Maryland has been a major surprise, the Terrapins in first place in the Big 10 despite three of the top four scorers being freshmen, which required a couple of things to happen – 1. Naturally those freshmen needed to be really good, in particular Justin Jackson, who scored 50 points and grabbed 22 rebounds in those road wins at Minnesota and Ohio State over the past week; and 2. There needed to be a veteran floor leaders to help those youngsters mature, and in Melo Trimble the Terps have one of the best around –
Trimble has helped to set the tone by being both productive statistically, and also a leader, the latter best measured by scoreboard results. And it is Trimble that brings the big challenge for Matt Painter, and one of the key aspects of this game – why isn’t the Purdue defense as good on the court as it appears on paper? The Boilermakers would seem to have the ingredients – size, depth and experience, but they can best be labeled as underachievers on that end of the court.
Few teams have the inside beef of 6-9/250 Caleb Swanigan and 7-2/290 Isaac Haas, and they also have 6-8 Vincent Edwards, 6-4 Dakota Mathias and 6-5 Ryan Cline on the wings. And there is also the Painter/Gene Keady playbook. Yet in their first four Big 10 road games they have allowed 78.5 ppg, on 44.6 percent shooting.
Where has the problem been? The defense does not play to the size that shows on paper, and has actually been a step slow. The Boilermakers are #13 in the Big 10 in blocked shots (Swanigan and Haas are not leapers), #14 in steal percentage, and #14 in turnover percentage forced. Being #14, of course, meaning dead last. How about something else that has to alarm Painter – they are #1 for shortest possession length, which is not a good thing, opponents finding shots at 17.1 seconds into the clock.
Hence the major matchup – can this defense prevent Tremble from getting into a rhythm and dictating flow? Those four conference road games have seen them broken down to the tune of 65 assists vs. only 43 turnovers, and now they face the highest level of opposing PG they have seen. These teams split last season, each winning at home, but note that across the two games Trimble had 12 assists vs. only two turnovers.
KENTUCKY/FLORIDA (8:15 Eastern) – Mike White can get it to the end game, but can his players win it?
Here is the kind of matchup the handicapper can often fall in love with, a home team in front of what will be a frenzied crowd that plays the kind of defense that can frustrate the opponent. Mike White has the ideal combination of both talent and tactics to make his schemes work, and with depth as a part of the talent component the Gators have been special at stopping people.
Florida rates #7 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, doing it with great ball pressure - #19 in turnover rate and #22 in steal percentage. And how about rating #1 in the ratio of assists per made field goal, which shows how difficult the Gators have been to break down. You can do that when you have nine players averaging more than 13 minutes in the rotation, none of them going a full 29. They stay fresh and relentless, and through nine SEC games they have 73 steals and 37 blocked shots. When that many opposing possessions do not allow a shot to get to the rim, you are naturally going to keep scoring way down.
There is an even more important aspect of that for this matchup –
Time of Possession
Florida “D” #341
Kentucky “O” #8
Because of that ball pressure, it is taking an average of 18.4 seconds for opponents to be able to launch a shot vs. the Gators, but the Wildcats have been playing at the opposite extreme, getting off a shot in 14.4. Can a young but talented Kentucky team react to having to go deeper into the clock, and show some patience and poise on offense? It is a legitimate question, even with De’Aaron Fox expected to be back on the court, after he missed the Georgia game on Tuesday because of the flu.
But now the issue for White – what if his team indeed guards well and frustrates Kentucky enough to turn it into a battle to the wire? Does White have the go-to player on offense that can make the difference at crunch time?
Naturally the individual Florida scoring stats are not going to impress because no one is on the court that long. But while the statistics measure the offense as being impressive, #20 in efficiency, it is an awkward accounting – so much of that is getting easy transition baskets off of turnovers. The eye test is seeing something different, a team that can struggle in the latter stages when having to run sets, which explains those grinder losses of 68-66 to Vanderbilt and 57-53 to South Carolina, and the near miss at home vs. Georgia (67-67 in regulation, before the Gators won it 80-76 in OT).
ARIZONA/OREGON (4:00 Eastern) – Can the big men for either team guard away from the basket?
To show just how good the Pac 12 is this season, UCLA sat atop the national polls for a while, yet may end up being the #4 team in the conference at season’s end. Here is a matchup of at least Elite Eight stature, and maybe even Final Four, with some teams that many folks around the nation do not get to see too often because of their late starting times.
It means that many may be seeing Lauri Markannen for the first time, but it sure as hell won’t be the lost – unless injuries get in the way there is a long NBA career ahead, possibly starting as early as next season. And Markannen leads to key matchup issues on both ends of the court in this one.
The 7-0/230 Markannen is from Finland, and brings some Nowitzki-esque basketball skills for his size – he is 54-107 from 3-point range, and has knocked down 84.3 percent of his free throws. With fellow 7-footer Dusan Rustic helping to anchor things around the basket, the Wildcats are going to provide matchup headaches for just about any team they come up against.
But now consider this one – while Oregon is not as big on paper, the Ducks are at a rarified air when it comes to blocking shots. They are #1 in the nation this season by a staggering amount, a 19.4 percent rate that is miles above Connecticut at 16.5 and Louisville at 16.4.
So here comes the game inside the game. Does Markannen negate some of that Oregon defense by his ability to play far from the basket, which will force either Chris Boucher or Jordan Bell to have to leave their comfort zone? But then there is the other end of the court…
Oregon has been on my Final Four list each week in the NCAA Podcast because of not only that great defense, but tremendous offensive balance – there are five players averaging in double figures, while Payton Pritchard would also be there if he got just a little more playing time. The Ducks are particularly good at breaking the opposition down off the dribble and creating opportunities. Are Markannen and Rustic also susceptible here, either or both of them often having to leave their preferred defensive area as Dana Altman goes with high-post sets to open up driving lanes? This one will be fascinating to watch as the strengths collide, and both teams have to make some adjustments beyond their usual game flows, each dealing with short turnarounds off of Thursday night games.
Now time to sit back and see how the markets price these games, all of them close enough to the range in which picking the likely straight-up winner will go a long way towards covering the spread.
About Last Night, NBA…
The remarkable run of the Wizards continued in their win over the Lakers, the home streak now up to 16-0 SU and 14-2 ATS, the latter ready to level off because the markets are doing their job. Beating LAL by eight was not enough to cut it at the closer of -10.5. But in picking up another win there was something alarming in the box score – John Wall having to go 40:35 in a game that was priced that high.
Wall is having a sensational season, helping Washington to overcome a lack of depth to move into the top spot in the Southeast Division, and within range of a #2 seed in the Eastern Conference. But is their going to be a toll that shows up sometime soon? Wall has played at least 37 minutes in seven of the last nine games, and last night was the seventh time he reached 40.
How much does his presence mean? The Wizards are +4.3 in his 36.3 minutes per game, but -2.2 in the 11.7 he sits. For a team as close as they are to making a deep playoff run, might there be a focus on bringing in another badly needed player for the rotation. Meanwhile for the handicapper there will be close attention to any signs of Wall showing fatigue, especially now that the markets are beginning to price Washington at a premium.
For your listening pleasure…
Our second roundtable on the Super Bowl, including getting into some specific props notions, can be found here.
And for the NCAA Hoops Weekend, you can go here.
In the Sights, NCAA Saturday…
There was a recent take here on just how bad things had been getting for Kevin Stallings in his first season at Pittsburgh, and I do not believe that close game at North Carolina earlier this week necessarily solved anything – the Panther defense was once again awful, but the Tar Heels were flat and lethargic themselves, allowing 13 made 3-pointers by Pitt to keep the game close. There never was the kind of run that has broken the will of Stallings’ team but I think we do see one or two of those stretches today, and that puts #534 Duke (1:00 Eastern) into pocket, with -14 available across the board this morning, and this one good to -15.
Pittsburgh rates last, or dead last, across just about every key defensive category in ACC play, and on the occasions in which opponents do miss their shots the Panthers are #14 (next to last) at clearing the defensive boards. It creates an awful matchup against a versatile Duke team that not only gets Mike Krzyzewski back on the sidelines today, but can also benefit form something badly needed – the Blue Devils have been home since Monday night, quality practice time for a rotation that has been hampered from development because of so many injuries to key cogs. They will be fresh, healthy, and in the only game in a 10-day span focused, especially because Pitt’s close call at Chapel Hill on Tuesday is something that has them forewarned.
In the Sights, Sunday NCAA…
I don’t think the markets have adjusted properly for the current Indiana realities, the absence of James Blackmon and OG Anunoby forcing the Hoosiers into a much different game flow, the offense now not only less effective in execution (36 turnovers vs. only 23 assists the last two games) but also having to take more time off the clock before good shots can be found. That makes #860 Wisconsin/Indiana Under (1:00 Eastern) a fit, with 138.5 available across the board in the morning trading, and this one good to 138.
Naturally the Badgers won’t mind at all having a game being played at a grinder’s pace, off of back-to-back wins over Rutgers and Illinois that only produced 190 points in regulation. But two of the last four Wisconsin games have gone to OT, which can cloud some models, and of course there were the three TO’s of Indiana/Penn State on Wednesday that create tracking difficulties there as well (a 144 in regulation ballooned to 212).
The offensive success the Hoosiers did have on Wednesday was not something that can be relied on here – Thomas Bryant scored 31 points on 13-18 shooting vs. an under-sized Penn State front line, but he does not find much coming easily here, And of course one of the keys in playing Under when the Side is sitting at -12.5 (even some -13 out there) is that we are unlikely to have to sweat out any late scrambling – the Badgers can slow the latter stages to a crawl if they have the expected command of the proceedings.
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