Point Blank – January 31, 2017
Hard times on the hardwoods for Pops and Coach Cal (more Case Studies in Hoops Consciousness)…
Tuesday brings us several prime settings for more case studies on the hardwoods, this time with a particular focus on some coaches going through more serious challenges at this time of the season than they had likely expected. I’ll tip it off in San Antonio…
Item: The decline of the Spurs defense in the post-Tim Duncan era
In the not-too-distant past I would have been looking to bet on Gregg Popovich and his team tonight. They get a chance to face Oklahoma City for the first time since being eliminated by the Thunder in the playoffs last May, and off of back-to-back losses a certain degree of pride could be expected. Meanwhile the Thunder are in their 22nd straight court change, and the 16th road game of that travail. Yet I can’t even give a second look.
Let’s set the stage – San Antonio has lost four times as a favorite of -6.5 or more over the last 10 games, and in three of them the Spurs were favored in double figures. The quick translation is that a Popovich team has had a series of losses to far lesser opponents, which has been extremely rare – the X’s and O’s savvy of his playbook has negated that throughout his coaching career. But much of his coaching career also had David Robinson or Tim Duncan to build a defense around.
Just how bad is it? The raw stats obviously tell much of the story -
San Antonio Defense in Season #1 of post-Duncan
2016 PP100: 96.6
2017 PP100: 102.3
January PP100: 104.4
That was bound to happen. In going from Duncan to Pau Gasol there was to be a drop in defense around the basket, and now sans Gasol there are a lot of minutes going to David Lee, which makes it even worse. But while there are some nights in which an opponent will take the game to them, it is another matter entirely when the Spurs have control, and then have the game taken away from them. Let’s go to those two weekend losses, as -6.5 at New Orleans on Friday, and -12 at home vs. Dallas on Sunday -
1st Half 2nd Half 4th Q
NO 57-48 46-71 19-34
Dallas 59-49 42-56 20-28
It brings to mind a vision of Popovich with a ghost of Duncan in the background.
To be out-scored 127-88 when seemingly in control at halftime is shocking for this franchise. Consider the reversal by the Mavericks in this context – San Antonio had won 117 straight home games in which there was a double-figure lead at halftime.
Here is something for the files that matters. Popovich emptied the bench with 3:34 left at New Orleans, and afterwards offered up “We just ran out of gas” as the explanation. Yet that fatigue was coming after the Spurs had back-to-back days off, and Kawhi Leonard had not played in nearly a full week. That made it time to pay closer attention on Sunday, when a short-handed Dallas team with the memorable combination of rookie Yogi Ferrell not only making his fist-ever start at PG, but his first appearance in a Dallas uniform; and Dirk Nowitzki having to start at center; took the game over in the second half.
How active was the Spurs defense in that loss? They had two steals, T-W-O, vs. a Ferrell/Seth Curry back-court that had never played a single NBA game minute together prior to Sunday (of course they also went on to beat the Cavaliers last night, so perhaps there might be something to see).
Let’s go to Manu Ginobli, who has been around long enough to understand what is going on, for the Sunday details - "Today it was just mental errors and communication errors. Our defense was pretty poor - we were always late on the switches and we were not as attentive as in previous games. We were a little flat in the third quarter. It's exactly the same thing that happened in New Orleans. We have to figure it out."
The microscope will be focused tonight in terms of how much can be figured out. The New Orleans loss should have been a slap in the face to prevent what happened on Sunday, but an emerging truth may be that the puzzle pieces to this defense simply may not amount to much, creating one of Popovich’s greatest challenges (yes, I know some may want to ask about looking at the OKC Team Total Over tonight, but the Thunder rotations without Enes Kanter call for more adjustment than the markets have made).
There is also an emerging challenge for John Calipari at Kentucky that comes under the ESPN spotlights this evening, at a time when the shrewd handicapper should be shining a bright light.
Item: What next for Kentucky (can Recruiter Cal really be Coach Cal when needed)
I will not be overly redundant on the issues that Coach Cal is facing with the current Wildcats, since much of that was covered in the Friday edition. Things did not get better vs. Kansas – an offense that he claimed was playing too selfishly remained that way, and a defense allowing the highest shooting percentage of the Calipari era in Lexington could not make the stops when needed.
I am bringing it up again because there is a key handicapping point, putting Calipari on the spot much like Popovich is going to be. Both are now out of their comfort zones, and it is how they manage both the playbooks and the egos of the players that have to execute them that will dictate much of how the next cycle goes.
Here is the gist – when things go bad for a successful team, a coach can help right the ship by going back to the system. Pops will, and while it may not work as well as in the past, it will work about as well as any system can. Calipari lacks such a fall-back. His mode of recruiting prime talent through this one-and-done cycle has led to a lot of success via that talent, but there is not a coherent playbook that connects his teams – each season is basically starting from scratch, and having to mold the designs around the new group (of course, as many will grasp, Kentucky has often won without needing many designs).
Calipari does not have a standard set of defensive principles to fall back on, which makes teaching moments like this challenging. He is also coaching players that lack experience, and also have their eyes firmly set on the NBA. Can he get a commitment to play defense out of this group, and then find a set of principles that fit the current roster? Off of back-to-back losses the focus should be there; now time to see what that focus is actually worth.
Of course there are indeed times in which players can reach back for something extra to turn a season around – we are seeing it happen at Colorado State.
Item: Colorado State becomes Ram tough*
Sub-Item: * - But was winning at Viejas Arena a little easier than usual
Not all that long ago there was a take here on the challenge that Larry Eustachy was facing at Colorado State three contributors from the rotation being lost to leave him with just seven available players. In the first game without the trio the Rams were whipped 84-71 at home vs. New Mexico, and a few days later went on the road for a 78-57 beating at Fresno State. It would have been real easy for the team to simply wave a white flag at that point, consider it a lost season, and just go through the motions the rest of the way.
Yet fast forward to tonight and the Rams are 5-3 in Mountain West Conference play and hosting Boise State (also 5-3) in a game in which the winner takes outright possession of second place. It is worth taking a look to understand the resiliency that can be there with young athletes, and Saturday’s stunning outcome at San Diego State also requires us to look in two different directions.
What made the 78-77 CSU win such a stunner was that the Rams trailed by 13 in the second half, and that depth-shy roster was hardly a candidate to turn it around. Yet they did, with key cogs Gian Clavell and Emmanuel Omogbo stepping up for something special instead of quitting – they combined for 61 of the 78 team points, and 17 of the 32 rebounds.
From Eustachy - "I thought it was a game for the memory books. If you watched it on TV or you were here live or you were able to have the luxury of coaching in the game, I think everything played out perfect. Gian Clavell had four fouls. We took him out and sat him for about four seconds and then put him back in. When you've got somebody like him and Emmanuel (Omogbo), you feel like you've got a chance."
Eustachy's (shown here with Clavell) reference of “the luxury of coaching in the game” is something worth keeping in the files.
Now there is a lot of adrenaline and a sense of purpose, and of course one of the sliver linings that can come from a shortened rotation – a team develops a more specific chemistry. The question now becomes how well those two can keep it up, Clavell playing 118 of 120 floor minutes over the last three wins, and Omogbo 101.
There is also a bit more. Before filing away the full post-mortem grading on Colorado State/San Diego State result there is this for consideration - SDSU’s shrinking student section. For many years one of the things that made the Aztecs so tough in Viejas Arena was that opposing players had to shoot at the students end of the court in the second half of games. How much difference might that have made on Saturday? It is a difficult question to answer, but it does add an additional layer in handicapping the SDSU home games for the remainder of the season, with the crowds more likely to get shrink than grow.
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