Point Blank – January 25
Beyond the Box Scores – the Quandary of Quit…Can Luke Walton prevent the LAL from becoming LOL…Did Pittsburgh already quit on Kevin Stallings before tipoff vs. Louisville…
One of the routine items that are part of many of the daily stops here along the journey of finding edges are the utilizations of quotes from players and coaches in an attempt to find clarity, both in grading past results and projecting future outcomes. The numbers in the box scores aren’t the final definition of an event, but merely the opening stages towards the best possible measurement, and the human element is ever so important in understanding how those numbers get put together.
Today one of the prime notions on that front comes into play – how do we sort through those awkward situations in which it appeared that a team may have simply let go of the rope in a game.
These extremes bring a variety of issues. First there is the attempt to ascertain why it happened, which naturally connects to whether or not it can be fixed quickly, or even at all. Then there is the matter of weighting that game performance so that the numbers don’t carry too much significance if it was merely a one-off; or too little if it may be a pattern. So let’s get to work.
Item: Luke Walton is already at a crossroads
Lost in the sporting shuffle of a Sunday dominated by the NFL playoffs was a simply shocking NBA score: DALLAS 122 LA LAKERS 73. The Mavericks entered the game at 14-29, and it would have been difficult to find any team in NBA history that they could beat by 49 points. But they absolutely crushed the Lakers, and it was not just one of those games in which shots were either falling or not to an extreme, but also about effort – Dallas is dead last in the NBA in rebound percentage, yet dominated the boards 49-32.
The body language for the Lakers was awful, and in particular this capture of veteran Luol Deng looking up towards the scoreboard tells a proper story.
Even in what is usually the showtime cycle in the latter stages of a blowout, when players at least go hard on the offensive end to pile up some stats, LAL was out-scored 32-18 in the fourth quarter. It wasn’t Dallas running anything up – the Mavs starters only played 114:43 of the 240 floor minutes. It was the Lakers choosing not to compete.
Now Luke Walton and his team are back on the floor for the first time since then, taking on the Trail Blazers in Portland with the added pressure of the ESPN cameras on hand, and it is not just the Dallas debacle weighing on them, but also that only Brooklyn now has a lower win percentage across the league. Hence a good time to get not just the microscope out for the small details, but also the stethoscope, to detect whether there is a beating heart.
Naturally the place to start is with Walton, who is having a lot thrown at him in the difficult transition of going from that veteran and skilled Golden State collective to a young group searching for an identity. A genuine problem is that while the Laker roster shows a series of recent high draft choices, having too many one-and-done’s in the rotation is a recipe for just the sort of thing that happened at Dallas.
Did Walton feel as though a connection got severed in that game? “It’s not about me or any coach on my staff. We don’t ... I don’t feel disrespected. I feel angry that I know we’re better than this. I know the work our guys are putting in, they should expect and deserve better results than that. I also understand you really have to learn how to play every single night. I understand as a team when we have some success, we relax. That’s our natural state.”
It is difficult to reconcile part of that – how can a team that has only won one-third of their games have had enough success for any notion of relaxing? So what about going forward -
“I think it’s important now when times are tough that we keep consistency. I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to change everything we’ve been doing all year when we’re struggling with wins when we’re in a process of getting a young team to the next level. ... I think we’ve gotten through to our team. I think they’ve bought in. We’re not going to change what we’re doing.”
That is also a bit problematic. The Lakers are dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.5 PP100, and for a rather ominous comparison that is running more than a full point worse than the dismal 109.3 of last season. You have to go back to the 2009-10 Toronto Raptors to find the last team that allowed more than 110.0 in a season. When you are that bad it must necessarily be a combination of both talent and tactics. That shows on offense as well, where the Lakers are #28 in assist ratio and #25 in turnover percentage. They are indeed lacking in talent and experience, but the tactics may not be helping either.
So what happens tonight? I am not expecting to be an investor with anything related to Lakers/Blazers but will be watching closely – does Walton have a full command of the team, and is there at least a resolve to improve? Athletes can be motivated when they know a little extra work leads from a loss to a win (more on that with the 76ers in a moment), but the motivation to turn a 10-point loss into a 5-point loss is a harder sell. And of course correcting a 49-point loss vs. a weak opponent…
Item: All of the Jamie Dixon history at Pittsburgh no longer matters (and will Kevin Stallings even get a chance to build a history)
Pitt flat-out quit vs. Louisville last night in a rather shocking game to watch, especially after the market activity, which saw wheelbarrows of money on the Panthers drop an opener of +7 down to +4.5 at tipoff. Final: LOUISVILLE 106-51, a cover by 50.5 points that rivals anything in NCAA hoops point spread history. And this was with Rick Pitino being kind – the Cardinal starters only played 98 of the 200 floor minutes.
The first notion here is one that I discuss often – tracking trends for any team should only connect up with the current coaching staff, unless it is a long-time assistant being elevated that isn’t changing the program much. If there were any questions about carrying over the Jamie Dixon era into the Kevin Stallings regime they are out. This is a new slate, and what was formerly a program known for physical and mental toughness on the court may be no more, Louisville wining the points in the paint battle by an astonishing 52-12 last night.
It was never a contest, Pittsburgh trailing 51-18 at halftime, but it does beg an honest question – did the Panthers quit on Stallings before the game began?
Here’s the gist. In an effort to try to light a spark Stallings gambled on some harsh words in a press conference earlier this week – “I think what I probably overestimated would be the value of that experience and how it would pertain to leadership and how it would pertain to bringing other guys along. The successful programs I’ve been in and the teams I’ve had and the programs I’ve had, the older guys helped coach the younger guys because they had been through it. That doesn’t happen too much [here] right now.
“Right now, my assessment is the only thing it feels like they’ve bought into 100 percent is freedom on offense. Well, anybody could buy into that. That’s not a hard thing to buy into. That’s just human nature. Of course I would like to have freedom on offense. I haven’t gotten them to buy into the way we have to play defensively. I haven’t gotten them to buy into the way we need to communicate, the way we need to support each other, the way we have to fight when adversity hits. I haven’t been able to get them to do a number of other things yet the way they have to be done with what we have, with the makeup of our team in this league. That part has been a little frustrating.”
That is strong stuff. But in particular it is strong stuff when most of the players you are talking about were recruited by someone else. Was the utter lack of effort by the Panthers last night the players rejecting the Stallings message? Naturally he was asked the question directly in the Louisville aftermath –“They (the players) don’t care about that stuff. I didn’t tell you anything I don’t tell them. I’m just honest. I come in here and tell you stuff every week and have since the very beginning. I’m honest with them. C’mon, man — that was an embarrassment. It was an embarrassment for me. It was embarrassing that was a product of my work. It’s embarrassing to me and should be embarrassing to them. They’ll tell you the same thing. …
“Ultimately, at the end of the day, it’s my responsibility. I don’t know what short-term alternatives I have available to me. It doesn’t feel like many, honestly. From a long-term standpoint, there will be some options and we’ll get some things rectified. I think one thing this team has consistently shown is an inability to deal with adversity.”
What is happening in Pittsburgh goes far beyond number crunching, although in this instance the shocking scoreboard and statistics vs. Louisville may have painted a proper portrait of the current state of affairs. The question now is if there is any way to build from the wreckage, because there is still a long schedule ahead.
About Last Night, NBA…
On a day filled with notions of teams not competing, the situation in Philadelphia continues to get interesting; last night the 76ers were handed a setting in which it would have been easy, perhaps even excusable, to show some quit, but they didn’t.
Prior to hosting the Clippers on Wednesday Philly had been 2-10 without Joel Embiid. With Jahlil Okafor also missing, and it being the first night of a back-to-back (they are in Milwaukee this evening) one could have easily forgiven Brett Brown if he backed his team off when they fell down by 19 in the third quarter. Instead they closed the game out on a 62-32 surge, which speaks volumes about the competitive spirit that is developing.
Brown does face an awkward task ahead, having to incorporate Ben Simmons into the mix, and that will be a lead topic when it happens. But there aren’t many teams working harder than this bunch right now, and getting the positive affirmation of some victories for those efforts should make it even easier to “Trust the Process”.
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