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PB: A Tutorial on Trophies

PB: A Tutorial on Trophies
guitarajs22
Joined: 01/01/2013
Posts: 73
Practice Squad
Not Ranked

Good Afternoon Dave,

In your review of the Championship game, was the line priced correctly in your analysis or was it off?  Your write about the ebbs and flows of sports displays how this game is difficult for me to correctly figure the correct end result.  The first half was very different compared to the fast paced offensive flow of the second half.

A note I believe that is important going forward for the NFL as well.  With the new hire of the Broncos coach, the defense is no doubt going to lose Wade Phillips as the coordinator.  This is a very big loss I believe and brings forth another question.  How does the Broncos defense change going forward to next year?  It will not be the same defense we've grown accustomed to and may very well look like the defense that was in Miami (for better or worse).

Thanks!

vonderheide
Joined: 12/16/2015
Posts: 10
Waterboy
Not Ranked

Dave-

Interesting situation that I would like your (or any anybody else's) take on:

After following much of your survivor pool advice, I completed a perfect season in a double-elimination contest.  This pool has continues into the postseason and 5 other players remain that have each have one loss.  I find myself in a very good situation but need to devise a game plan to finish the job.  

This pool has reset the available teams and in the wild card round I used the Steelers. My thinking now is that if I can pick the division and conference rounds correctly, without trying to conserve a bullet for the Super Bowl, I force all the other players to play a perfect postseason, which seems highly unlikely.  With that being said I see two options:

1) As the only reasonably safe pick on the board, use the Patriots this week and then attempt to pick the NFC Championship correctly. If I am unsuccessful in that game I will still have winner available for the SB.

Or

2) Risk it this week with either the Falcons or Cowboys and leave the Patriots available for the AFC championship game. This seems like the riskier play, but if I am able to roll the dice this week I should be at a huge advantage.

Thanks in advance!

quackerbkr
Joined: 09/04/2013
Posts: 25
Practice Squad
Not Ranked

One more observation on the Cavs/Blazers game tonight in regards to the size of the crowd and potential loss of some of the home court edge the Blazers may have had.  If this was not a nationally televised game it would have likely been postponed given the conditions of the area roads and intermittent issues with the light rail and transit system due to the weather.  In fact the Blazers are offering to exchange tickets for tonight's game for another game for those that are not able to attend and many businesses and schools have already announced closures for tomorrow. With that said, it is obviously a marque game for the fans so will be interesting to see what the attendance looks like.

Rebus
Joined: 06/14/2016
Posts: 1145
Professional
Not Ranked

Rebus

Golf - BMW SA Open

Starts: Thursday - Midnight ET - 9pm Pacific Time

Jamie Donaldson: Donaldson returns from injury after 3 months

"Jamie Donaldson heads to the BMW South African Open at Glendower GC in desperate need of arresting a poor run of results. 

Fourth on the Race to Dubai rankings in 2013, fifth in 2014, including a starring role in the European Ryder Cup victory, life was pretty sweet for the Welshman. He then opted to try out the PGA Tour and the split schedule has not quite worked, not aided by a self-inflicted gardening injury exactly 12 months ago. He’s twice failed to retain his PGA card and has followed those two stellar campaigns in Europe with 48th and then 87th last year. T10 in May’s Irish Open and T26 in June’s St Jude Classic he is just 3-for-11 since then, with a best of T42 and not been seen since withdrawing from the British Masters in early October. He’s 11-for-15 in South Africa with six top 20 finishes and a best of T2 in the 2013 Nedbank Challenge"

Beware the injured Golfer

Golf is always priced on recent form and Jamie Donaldson doesn't have any so there is no reason for bookmakers to be worried about putting big prices next to the Welshmans name this week. Or is there? He is a former world number 23 so back in 2014 he would have been going off +2500 in this company. Donaldson secured the winning point for Europe in the 2014 Ryder Cup, with a wedge shot onto the 15th green, beating Keegan Bradley 4 & 3. You won't find many players in this field with that sort of pedigree so the only question is, how is he playing? According to reports he is back hitting it well so now is the time to strike while he is being priced on his form in an injury ridden 2016. There is no market that I would not recommend a bet on him. If you can find an outright price, Top 5, Top 10 or even Top 20 then put something in play. 

Westgate - Jamie Donaldson (outright winner) 100/1 (+9050 The Greek)

5Dimes - South African Open - 1st Rnd Leader - Jamie Donaldson +8000

5Dimes - South African Open - Top 10 - Jamie Donaldson +750

5Dimes - *****1st Rnd 3 Balls   Donaldson/Porteous/Southgate +158*******

Pinnacle - Jamie Donaldson to beat Matthew Southgate (Tourn) -118 

5Dimes - 12:00AM 7490 Jamie Donaldson to beat Keith Horne (Tourn) -1½ -110

5Dimes - 12:00AM 7490 Jamie Donaldson to beat Keith Horne (1st Rnd) -125

BetChris - Jamie Donaldson to beat Matthew Southgate (1st Rnd) -120 

***** = best bet out there

5Dimes have trimmed their odds but not enough. The +150 on Donaldson to win the 3-ball is still value. An in form Donaldson would be -110 against these two opponents so this is good down to +145. That gives more enough room for error.

Matt Dillon
Joined: 12/20/2012
Posts: 6614
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

WHY are you so HIGH on JD? Is it just because he's in desperate need of arresting a poor run of results? NOT Quite SURE what you see in him to all of a sudden make a Big Turn around!

Rebus
Joined: 06/14/2016
Posts: 1145
Professional
Not Ranked

I have reports he's flushing it on the range this week and I'm not the only one.

‏@bowsknows

@Kenny_Still I heard he is fully fit again and flushing it

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12879
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

guitarajs22

Good Afternoon Dave,

In your review of the Championship game, was the line priced correctly in your analysis or was it off?  Your write about the ebbs and flows of sports displays how this game is difficult for me to correctly figure the correct end result.  The first half was very different compared to the fast paced offensive flow of the second half.

A note I believe that is important going forward for the NFL as well.  With the new hire of the Broncos coach, the defense is no doubt going to lose Wade Phillips as the coordinator.  This is a very big loss I believe and brings forth another question.  How does the Broncos defense change going forward to next year?  It will not be the same defense we've grown accustomed to and may very well look like the defense that was in Miami (for better or worse).

Time to get a morning catch-up round started - this week's NFL podcast is in the can now, and should be posted later this morning.

The Clemson/Alabama line goes down as a bad one not just because of there result on the field, but the result at the windows - the sports books did not come close to splitting the action, and those in Nevada in particular took a beating on the game. What they were weighing were two issues - the long-term market belief behind Alabama, and that notion of bettors often reacting more heavily to what they saw last. Had Bama/Clemson met in Round #1, the consensus was that the Crimson Tide would have been around -8.5 or -9, so that question became how much to adjust for a large segment of the betting public being impressed with Clemson's domination of Ohio State. Most folks behind the counter that I talked to thought that Alabama -7 would have been "safe", but as it turns out it wasn't.

In terms of the game flow I have not done the full post-mortem, which is often the case in bowl games and playoffs - when there is no urgency I find the time is better spent on the daily basketball charting, and I often save bowl reviews for when spring practice notes are being compiled. But one thing I will do, and perhaps track in back to last year's game as well, is divide the Clemson offense into segments - A. First 30 plays; B. Second 30 plays; and C. All remaining plays. That will lead to an interesting notion of how much impact the tempo played in the outcomes.

The NFL coaching changes will be a lead topic once they are all in place, so that the comparisons are more easily made, but it does get interesting in Denver - not only have the Broncos hired a coach that has some potential, but with an extremely thin resume for the position, but they may legitimately have downgraded at DC. That will be an interesting one to track through.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12879
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

vonderheide

After following much of your survivor pool advice, I completed a perfect season in a double-elimination contest.  This pool has continues into the postseason and 5 other players remain that have each have one loss.  I find myself in a very good situation but need to devise a game plan to finish the job.  

This pool has reset the available teams and in the wild card round I used the Steelers. My thinking now is that if I can pick the division and conference rounds correctly, without trying to conserve a bullet for the Super Bowl, I force all the other players to play a perfect postseason, which seems highly unlikely.  With that being said I see two options:

1) As the only reasonably safe pick on the board, use the Patriots this week and then attempt to pick the NFC Championship correctly. If I am unsuccessful in that game I will still have winner available for the SB.

Or

2) Risk it this week with either the Falcons or Cowboys and leave the Patriots available for the AFC championship game. This seems like the riskier play, but if I am able to roll the dice this week I should be at a huge advantage.

This position would be similar to a chess board in which you have the advantage of an extra pawn, that advantage allowing you to play conservatively and grind. I would be inclined to do that, especially because skipping the Patriots now does not necessarily leave them as an automatic next week - should Pittsburgh be the opponent, with the Steelers having one more win to build up their confidence on both sides of the ball, they would have the talent and the moxie to compete for the outright win in Foxborough.

mrink1074
Joined: 10/05/2015
Posts: 18
Waterboy
Not Ranked

I'm in a similar situation, however my pool is single elimination.  Because of this, I'm looking to save the Patriots as my SB winner and determine which of the other three division games to choose from.  I normally like home field advantage in the playoffs, except this year's games are a little dicey (outside of NE).  Dallas is starting two rookies in the playoffs against the Packers, and I've always believed experience in the playoffs means a lot.  Atlanta has not been the most consistent team in the playoffs and Seattle always seems to elevate their game the higher the stakes.  With the Steelers/Chiefs, I'm not totally sold on the Chiefs, but with Big Ben in a walking boot this week, not sure how that affects his game (he says he'll be fine, but all players say that).  Any strategy tips would be greatly appreciated, as it seems like a crap shoot this weekend.  I could see 3 road teams winning this week, which goes against the norm.  Thanks.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12879
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

mrink1074

I'm in a similar situation, however my pool is single elimination.  Because of this, I'm looking to save the Patriots as my SB winner and determine which of the other three division games to choose from.  I normally like home field advantage in the playoffs, except this year's games are a little dicey (outside of NE).  Dallas is starting two rookies in the playoffs against the Packers, and I've always believed experience in the playoffs means a lot.  Atlanta has not been the most consistent team in the playoffs and Seattle always seems to elevate their game the higher the stakes.  With the Steelers/Chiefs, I'm not totally sold on the Chiefs, but with Big Ben in a walking boot this week, not sure how that affects his game (he says he'll be fine, but all players say that).  Any strategy tips would be greatly appreciated, as it seems like a crap shoot this weekend.  I could see 3 road teams winning this week, which goes against the norm.  Thanks.

The experience factor will be the main focus on the Thursday edition, and there is at least a bit of a plot twist to Dallas - might some of the key Cowboys, with no playoff experience at all, be a little better set than the other NFC favorite of Atlanta, since most of the experience the Falcons have in the post-season has been negative. Plenty of food for though, but for someone wishing to hold back New England, I would rate the Cowboys as the best #2 choice this week.

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