Point Blank – January 9, 2017
Saban/Swinney in “Same Time/Next Year”…
Gee, so we’ve only got one game to really sink our teeth into for Monday. Yes, there will be some Russell Westbrook vs. Jimmy Butler head-to-head in Chicago tonight, made more interesting by the later arguably being the NBA’s best player in January, but that overall matchup is not of much ATS interest. But tonight’s clash in Tampa should be something played out at whole different level than what plagued the NFL over the weekend, half of the Wild Card participants not really of playoff caliber.
As noted in discussions since Clemson/Alabama first hit the board, this matchup will have me scouring the props and derivatives markets, the Side/Total so close to my ratings that there is not an appreciable edge to be found (I get a slight lean to the Tigers, but not enough to overcome vigorish). But with plenty of significant storylines out there, there is a lot consume…
Item: About last year (and why Nick Saban was a savant with the on-side kick; his defense really had run out of stops)
Might we see something as entertaining as Alabama 45 Clemson 40 to cap the 2016 season? Absolutely, in part because of the quality of the players and coaches, and also because the bright stage lights are not going to bother either team. When a game brings an underdog with this kind of pedigree (more on that in a moment), that can happen. First there are some review aspects from that last clash that are worth noting.
Despite the explosive final score the game was only sitting on Clemson 24-21 entering the fourth quarter, and it was the performance of the Alabama special teams that turned the tide, literally. What may have been the single biggest play of the game came after ‘Bama had tied it at 24-24 with 10:34 remaining, and Saban opted for that on-side kick. His team recovered, and two plays later Jake Coker hit O.J. Howard for a 50-yard TD pass, giving the Crimson Tide a lead they never relinquished. Clemson drove for a FG on the ensuing possession to make it 31-27, but Kenyan Drake responded with a 95-yard KO return for a TD, making it two monster special teams plays with a span of a few minutes.
What would make the usually conservative Saban attempt that on-side kick? Something that mattered then, and may well matter again tonight – “I made the decision to do it because the score was [tied] and we were tired on defense and weren't doing a great job of getting them stopped and felt like if we didn't do something or take a chance to change the momentum of the game that we wouldn't have a chance to win."
How prescient was Saban about the state of his defense? DeShaun Watson and the Clemson offense would go on to have 20 more offensive plays, and those plays produced 204 yards and 17 points. The Tigers snapped the ball 85 times in the game, far above the average of 65.6 per game the Alabama defense had faced coming in. Dabo Swinney’s team was aggressive from the start, not playing as though there was any mindset of being an underdog, in truth because there should not have been…
Item: The current Clemson fifth-year seniors are the best bowl team in NCAA history
Though there was a general public perception that the Tigers were the upstarts going up against the traditional power last January, it never looked that way on the field, and it won’t tonight – this is one of the five best programs in the country, and Swinney has earned a spot among the coaching elite. How about this for the post-season arc of the current fifth-year seniors -
2012 +5.5 25-24 LSU
2013 +2 40-39 OHIO STATE
2014 +6.5 40-6 OKLAHOMA
2015 +4 37-17 OKLAHOMA
+6.5 40-45 ALABAMA
2016 +1.5 34-0 OHIO STATE
That is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS, all in underdog roles against true “A” level competition, and outside of the close loss in last year’s championship game the past three bowl cycles have been wipeouts of talented opponents.
Want to go beyond tonight and think about the future for a moment? Swinney has 25 under-classmen on his two-deep. The upside is substantial. Win this game and Clemson likely enters 2017 as the favorite to repeat if Watson foregoes the NFL to return for a senior season, and Watson is without question the most important player on the field tonight.
Item: Stopping a QB like Watson hasn't been elementary in the Saban schemes
A notion that has been written about here often in the past is that mobile QBs have been the kryptonite for the Saban defense. He prefers man-to-man coverage, which means that the defensive backs, and often a few of the linebackers as well, have their focus directly on the receiver they are assigned to, which means their eyes can’t be on the QB to prevent a running lane from opening. There is also some complexity in those schemes that has Saban wanting the right players lined up in the preferred matchups, as well as various stunts an blitzes up front, so the Crimson Tide prefer to have time to get their calls in. When these teams met 12 months ago the Clemson tempo took that time away, and Watson’s execution of the offense was sublime.
It won’t take us too long into the future to appreciate how good Watson was in that defeat – he threw for 405 yards and four TDs, while also running for 73 yards, and there will be few QBs to ever reach that level in the championship game. Hence, why Saban opted for an on-side kick instead of trusting his usually sturdy defense. But a few things are different this time.
First is the key factor that the Crimson Tide defense now has much more experience against a mobile QB, having to go up against Jalen Hurts every day in practice. Do not underestimate that. And there is also the fact that it is Jeremy Pruitt now calling the shots for the Alabama defense, and Pruitt has had a couple of recent opportunities to game plan against Clemson, in 2013 as the Florida State DC, and in 2014 as the Georgia DC, It isn’t that game planning helps all that much against the level that Watson can play at, but the ‘Bama defensive designs may be better set than they were a year ago.
Here is something you don’t want to neglect inside of what looked like an offensive explosion for the Tigers in that game – they couldn’t run a lick between the tackles. Not a lick. Wayne Gallman’s 14 carries for 45 yards might look unproductive, a 3.2 per attempt, but note that his total included a 34-yard burst. On his other 13 rush attempts he managed only 11 yards.
Item: But about that Alabama offense
One of the biggest storylines of the week, of course, was Saban removing Lane Kiffin from the picture, which does raise genuine questions about continuity for the Crimson Tide offense. Much of that timing may have stemmed from the fact that the offense was dismal in last week’s win over Washington, shooting themselves in the foot several times with penalties that helped to stall drives, and appearing ill-prepared throughout. Kiffin looked like a coach that was auditioning for a bigger role, despite the fact that he had already accepted one, trying to be more creative with the play calls than was necessary given the opposition and the game flow.
Enter Steve Sarkisian, and while the transition can bring difficulties, it might be worth taking a moment to appreciate his resume. Yes, the ending at USC was awkward, but in Sarkisian’s background there was the serving as an assistant under Pete Carroll and Norm Chow with the Trojans, followed by a stint with the Oakland Raiders, then back to USC as an assistant, before five seasons as HC with Washington, and then getting into his second campaign back at USC before off-field issues led to his dismissal. Put that together and it is one of the best resumes for any OC in the nation.
What will happen this week? Not all that much – you don’t deviate from a plan. But while only serving in an “advisory” role prior to Kiffin’s exit, which limited contact with players, you can be sure that Sarkisian and Kiffin were having study sessions each week throughout the campaign. I believe there is one key that has been lost – Kiffin’s experience against Brent Venables and the Clemson defense from last year’s game, which will not be a part of Alabama’s prep. But Sarkisian has a lot of big-time experience under his belt.
From Saban - “He’s got a lot of experience, he’s got a lot of knowledge. I think he’s very well organized, and I tell him what I tell any coach: We’re prepared to do certain things in certain situations. Let’s stick with the plan. Until we have to adjust the plan, that’s what the players know, that’s what we’ve practiced, that’s what we need to go out and try to do, and that’s going to give us the bet chance to be able to execute and be successful. I think he’ll do that.”
Item: And just what level of defense is Alabama attacking anyway?
And now for the clinching point, not to play the game, but why I Iikely won’t be in action for much. The Clemson defense was simply superb against Ohio State, and the Tigers that I saw that night would be a take at +7 against just about any NCAA team ever. But is that necessarily the defense we will see this evening?
During the regular season the Clemson defense was good, not great, and in the two biggest showdown games the Tigers weren't in the neighborhood of good, allowing 70 points and 1,017 yards to Louisville and Florida State. A case can be made that with more underclassmen than seniors starting this is a young group that was going to get better with experience, especially a DL that has a chance to become ferocious in the future, with six underclassmen in the two deep (five of them weighing 295 pounds or more). But the truth is that it was an inconsistent unit, and some of the takeaway from the semi-finals was that it wasn’t just great play from the Tigers on that side of the ball, but also a lack of imagination from the Ohio State playbook.
So to wrap it up I don’t have much of an edge; perhaps something will open up during the In-Running. But I do expect the quality of play to be high, these programs more than ready for the stage, and sometimes there is nothing wrong with just sitting back and watching some high level sporting drama unfold.
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