Point Blank – January 6, 2017
The Dolphins aren’t built for the cold…Just how many versions of a Grand Slam breakfast are there anyway…Golden State should be real Warriors tonight (at least for the First Half)…
In yesterday’s edition there was a focus on some of the key elements involved in the Saturday NFL Playoff games, including a conclusion that will produce a ticket with Lions/Seahawks Over, so now time to take that focus forward to Sunday. It’s going to be cold out there, damn cold, and there is one team in particular not built well for such circumstances.
Item: Miami brings a “snap factor”
With the wind chill built in both Sunday games will be played in temperatures in the single digits, exacerbated by the kickoff time in Green Bay, which will have much of the game played after the sun has set. That begs for context from the start because of the impact it could have on the game flows, and the particular teams involved, and the Dolphins become a candidate to struggle across several fronts.
The phrase that I have grown comfortable with over the years is what I call a “snap factor” for certain underdogs. It enables some forays into action when there may not necessarily be great line value because it brings the prospect that a higher chance the game may not fall close to the line, circumstances in which the team that is trailing is more subject to blowout.
There isn’t any pure line value to Pittsburgh at -10, though the Steelers do bring some ammunition to play into the snap notions. They got a chance to get Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown physically and mentally fresh off of a bye last week, and can also be counted on to handle the game-day conditions with aplomb – this is a group that will not be bothered by either playoff pressure or a frigid afternoon; if anything one might make the case that Bell could be the NFL’s best runner for such a setting.
But as for Miami, let’s count the ways. First there is the lack of playoff experience, and you can’t help but wonder with this particular group if there is a bit of a “just glad to have made it” mentality. The franchise has been in one playoff game over the past decade, and the season began without major expectations, so the mindset needed to make a post-season run is not likely to be there.
Then there is the matter of attrition, the defense losing Koa Misi, Reshad Jones and Isa Abdul-Quddus, and the offense Mike Pouncey and Ryan Tannehill. CB Byron Maxwell may be added to that list – while they hoped to get him back this week, he has not played since December 11, and was unable to practice yet. That leaves Tony Lippett and Xavien Howard as the starting CBs, neither of them ready to be chasing Brown all over the field.
Then there is the syle issue. The Dolphins have some playmakers in the DL, with Ndamukong Suh earning another Pro Bowl spot, but some of their strengths get taken away here – sacks do not come easily against Big Ben (he was sacked on 3.2 percent of drop-backs; only Derek Carr bettered that at 2.8), and conversely the weakness this DL has, the fact that you can run right at them and counter their aggressiveness, may come to the forefront. For the season this rush defense was #22 at Football Outsiders, but note that down the stretch they allowed 5.7 per carry over the last six games. The Bell may indeed toll.
And then there is the Matt Moore issue. While his performance in replacing Tannehill has shown his ability to make plays, there is a gunslinger aspect to his game that also makes him a dubious candidate to be successful playing from behind in the second half – there are the very real prospects of game-turning mistakes being made.
Note that all of this came before even getting to the game-day conditions. What has it been like in Miami this week? The usual – high of 78 yesterday, expected high today of 81. The Dolphins do have a RB in Jay Ajayi that the style to handle the cold, but there is a question as to whether he has been built up for an NFL workload – he did have a monster outing vs. Buffalo in Game #15, but in his other games down the stretch showed some signs of being worn down (20 carries for 48 yards vs. Arizona, 19-51 vs. the Jets and 16-59 vs. New England).
So how does this one add up? Naturally a lot of these anti-Miami sentiments are already built into the line, hence no claim of value. But might there be enough of that “snap” aspect to find a way into play? I will be looking for that – as the various prop elements get added to the board there may be some avenues that lead to a trigger, and I may revisit them in this space on Sunday morning if something of particular advantage shows.
Item: Yes it’s Ben McAdoo and that damn Denny’s menu again
I try not to be redundant with phrasing between this space and the weekly podcast, but in breaking down Giants/Packers I have to go to the well one more time. There will be much talk on the weekend preview shows about McAdoo getting NYG into the playoffs in his first season as HC, which will sound like plaudits, yet the fact remains – “McAdoo was promoted to head coach before he had even proven that he could do the job as an offensive coordinator.” I’ll be saying that with Pauly Howard on the Pregame First Preview radio show again this morning, so I might as well have it rehearsed. The creativity of design and ability to put an offensive game plan together comes front and center in Lambeau Field, and it raises more questions about McAdoo, as he seemingly forever waits for that Denny’s waitress to come around.
How have the Giants done offensively in the McAdoo era? If we use the Football Outsiders charts, they have gotten progressively worse -
All Run Pass
2014 14 23 12
2015 16 18 23
2016 23 26 21
If we view the 2016 season, his first as HC, they also got progressively worse, managing just 79 points over the final five games. For the full season they were held to 20 points or less in 10 games. Contrast that to Green Bay being held to 20 or less twice, and note the Packers topped the NYG high of 28 points on six occasions, including each of the final four games.
The Green Bay adjustments have been feature topics here across a couple of fronts – there was the commitment to turn Ty Montgomery into a full-time RB, which has worked out well, Montgomery averaging 5.9 yards per rush on his 77 attempts, while still catching 44 passes; and also Jordy Nelson’s evolving into an effective target on shorter passing routes. Nelson may have fallen from 15.5 YPC in his last campaign (2014) to 13.0 this season, but still caught 97 passes, 14 of them going for TDs.
What does this create for the pocket? Nothing that I can get into play. The Giants are far better defensively, and that group has been written about here often – Steve Spagnuolo has been given some proper puzzle pieces to work with, and has created a fit. But the one weak link that group has had is the pass rush, and if Aaron Rodgers has enough time the Packer offense was spreading the field comfortably down the stretch. Meanwhile the GB defense can be exploited, but can the Giants be trusted either from a design standpoint, or the execution of those designs?
As for the weather, despite the fact that you will almost assuredly here “the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field” often this weekend, it is a good playing surface for cold days, with a heating system installed under the field long ago to keep it from freezing up. Hence the flow of Under money that has been out there might push the Total a bit too low – for now there is not much wind in the forecast, so with both teams accustomed to practicing and playing in the cold, the impact on the game flow may not be as major as some in the marketplace may try to make it.
In the Sights, Friday NBA…
The NBA schedule is a long grind in which even the “A” teams go through the motions much of the way. Yet every once in a while there is a setting in which one of the elite outfits can be expected to throw a heavy punch, and that leads to #514 Golden State First Half (10:35 Eastern), with -8 out there in the Friday morning trading. The Warriors have about as much pride as any team, and that pride was dealt a severe blow at Memphis earlier, a 110-89 thumping that fell 34 points from the market projections. Now time for some payback.
This sets up well this evening across two different directions. First is that the Warriors have done little but yawn in a 4-0 SU but 1-3 ATS home stand, the inherent difficulty of finding motivation when favored by -17.5, -15.5 and -16, which has been the case the last three games. But now there is not only a high degree of physical freshness, this only being the fifth game in 12 days of the home-stand, but also the chance to zero in and focus again. All there is ahead is a game at Sacramento on Sunday, then back here vs. Miami on Tuesday, so there is no distraction except to put the full attention on the Grizzlies.
The second direction is that Memphis brings real issues right now on the defensive end, part of it trying to assimilate Mike Conley and Chandler Parsons into the rotation, but also an emerging notion that the league has figured out some of those defensive schemes. The Grizzlies were simply awful on that end of the court in getting swept 116-102 by the Lakers and 115-106 by the short-handed Clippers in Los Angeles earlier this week, and their own takes on the state of affairs are enlightening.
First from Tony Allen - “They put us in a spread pick-and-roll and force the backside to help. We’ve got to do a better job. It’s a copycat league. A lot of teams are going to try to do that and get away from that grind-style basketball that we play.”
Then Marc Gasol - “You can’t allow the same action to beat you different ways. You know, one time, the pick-and-roll guy handling the ball scores. The next time, the roller (scores). Next time, the guy pulling behind (scores). You have to stay on one thing and believe in it and accept you are giving up something on defense. But the whole team has to give up the same thing. It can’t just be one guy, two guys or three guys. So we have to be a little more connected, and it takes time. It takes work. It takes sacrifice and it takes unselfishness.”
This is not a good place for the Grizzlies to find their fix. I will make the First Half the focus because there could be some Golden State laziness with a big lead in the latter stages, but I do expect a certain amount of fire from the Warriors in the opening stanza.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA…
The best value settings are those that bring both a Play-On and Play-Against components, and that will put #833 Oklahoma State (7:00 Eastern) into pocket this evening, elements in play to both back the underdog and buck the favorite. There is +12 out there now, with value holding down to +11.
The Cowboys fit the prototype of being a “tough out” – they will scrap hard and press all over the floor, and have big-time scorers in Jawun Evans, Jeffrey Carroll and Phil Forte. One of the best roles for such a team is being a double-digit underdog because the back-door remains open – when a team presses as part of their make-up, and can also score quickly, they will never feel that they are out of a game. This particular setting should bring a top focus - they did not go back to Stillwater following Wednesday’s 82-79 loss at Texas, practicing for a couple of days at Concordia University, which means no outside distractions and the full attention put on attacking Baylor.
Meanwhile the Bears come into this game at a lofty #2, but they are only good, not great, and this may prove to be their high-water mark in terms of market value to play against them. They were on the ropes to lose outright on this court to Iowa State on Wednesday, the end-game being as much what the Cyclones did wrong as what Scott Drew’s team did right, and over time the results should show that the talent level between these teams does not call for a line in double figures.
In the Sights, Sunday NBA…
The Rockets are playing with a unique energy right now, and if you want to trace a starting point back to their earlier 115-102 home loss to Toronto you can – it has been a 20-3 SU run since then. I believe the rematch today brings energy to the forefront, especially on the defensive end, and that will put some #508 Toronto Team Total Under (6:05 Eastern) into play, with 110.5 available in the Sunday morning trading. The Rockets will have plenty of energy, while the Raptors will likely not have enough to match.
A prime example of how Houston has evolved beyond the reputation as an offense-first team was Friday’s 100-93 win at Orlando – the Rockets got an abysmal 3-24 from 3-point range from James Harden and Eric Gordon, yet got the win anyway because of their work on the other end of the floor. That is what they are capable of, with aggressive defense now that Patrick Beverley has returned helping to set the tone.
It is that part of the equation that gets Toronto into trouble in this one. Just about the last thing the Raptors needed for this setting, one that marks their 15 straight court change, including the unique twist of four time zones across the last six games, was to get extended at Chicago last night, and they did. In having a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter get away in that 123-118 overtime defeat the minutes added up in a way that will matter today – Kyle Lowry was out there for 44:17, DeMar Derozan 42:56, Lucan Nogueira 42:21 and DeMarre Carroll 41:16, with the bench only contributing 23 points.
Where were the Rockets while that was going on? Already in Toronto. I believe that will matter. The Houston offense relies so much on Lowry and DeRozan and it is difficult to imagine those two having enough in the tank to get into rhythm here, this one tipping off just 21 hours after Saturday’s opening possession at Chicago.
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