Point Blank – December 20, 2016
What a Bettor Better Know – NFL #15…When even the coaches you want to trust can’t fully be trusted…
How difficult is handicapping the NFL? It is not so bad – you just start form the top down, laying out the most logical foundations, like working with those upper tier coaches that can be trusted, and then work from there. Except what happens when those guys at or near the top show us the kind of awkward decision making that create a pause in rating them so highly? And if the guys at the top do this, what does that say about the rest (au revoir, Gus Bradley)…
It makes for a challenging sport, which is what almost all of us accept anyway. Today I will work on the broader point by bringing some of those elite coaches front and center, in part to better file away the results from this past weekend, and also to set a proper stage for the on-going point spread battles ahead. So with plenty to sort through I will bring a little musical background into play to help glide along, something that fits for the season but is not from the usual playlists – Ian Anderson with “Pavane”, composed by Gabriel Faure back in the mid-19th century, and then re-worked by Anderson for Jethro Tull’s “Christmas Album” a little over a decade ago. This is Anderson live with the Frankfurt Philharmonic -
Item: Pete Carroll, Andy Reid and John Harbaugh are three of the best coaches in the NFL
Any top 10 list of NFL coaches should include Carroll, Harbaugh and Reid, and acknowledge that if you disagree with any of them being that high, it means that in addition to Bill Belichick, you will have to name nine more that are also better. Good luck with that.
Sub-Item: For Pete’s sake, why?
I touched upon Carroll’s bizarre call for a fake punt in the latter stages of that easy win over the Rams in the Friday edition, but now can go into deeper detail, because the Seattle HC has. What do we get in the explanation? The energy that makes Carroll who he is, an energy that he imparts well to his players, who week-in and week-out bring as much passion to the field as any team. And also plenty of hubris, which isn’t necessarily a good thing.
First, of course, is the usual statistical correction that is called for, the 26-yard run by punter Jon Ryan having nothing to do with the Seattle rush offense, or the Los Angeles rush defense. Move it to the side where it belongs. That becomes a striking edit, because Ryan’s run was the best one the Seahawks had all night. Also edit out the three knee-downs by Russell Wilson, and the Seahawks managed only 49 yards on 26 rush attempts. Thomas Rawls had one burst of 12 yards, and his other 20 carries netted just 22.
Now back to Carroll’s take on that fake punt, while Seattle waits to see if Ryan will be cleared under the NFL’s concussion protocol this week - “We had a tremendous preparation for an opportunity to take that we knew could be like a turnover in the game. If we could get the opportunity we would go for it. It didn’t matter when it happened, we were looking for it the whole night. The opportunity that we took, it gave us a chance to hold onto the football and not give them even the chance to get the ball back. What more could I do to help my team?
“How it gets perceived and all, that’s what you guys get to talk about when you want to and I think it’s a waste of energy but I understand it. I don’t expect that you can see it from our perspective. I thought it was an excellent demonstration of planning and prep and execution. It worked perfectly, except for the end of it was terrible. But that allowed us to keep the football and it didn’t have anything to do with something with the score or anything, just trying to finish the game as well as we could, in command of it as we were.”
I really like Carroll but that is a high shovel full of fertilizer. He gambled on a play with precious little upside, given that the Seahawks were leading 24-3 with 5:22 left, yet brought the risk of Ryan absorbing contact down the field while running with the ball, something punters are not trained for. He put his player in the position for something to go wrong when he did not have to, and something indeed went wrong. But you can note Carroll’s own sensitivity issue there as well, saying that it’s a “waste of energy” for him to be criticized. And he is one of the best…
Sub-Item: Andy Reid reaches to the back pages of his playbook at the wrong time
Sub-Item: Why freeze an already-frozen kicker?
Kansas City was out-played for the most part by Tennessee, but the Chiefs have had that happen often and still win their games, some of that because of Reid’s organization skills in having them hang around, focusing on not giving anything away, before finding a way to win more often than not. They were in position to squeeze one out 17-16 on Sunday, only needing to make a single first down on their final possession to wrap it up, and productive runs by Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West got them to third-and-2 at the 2:00 warning, when Reid and the offense had the opportunity to think things over.
Part of why they were in the situation in the first place was the offense going stone cold in the second half, now marking the third straight game that unit has not scored after intermission. Attribute some of that to too much conservatism, Reid backing off too early in putting most of his load on the defense to make the lead hold up. So after the time out, was it one more conservative play by Reid? Hard to tell. Does calling for QB Alex Smith to run a college-type option play, on the single most important snap of the game, come across as being conservative, or just silly, by it not being a play that is a part of their arsenal? It failed; Smith being stuffed for no gain.
Reid offered the usual coach-speak afterwards, but you can use this from TE Travis Kelce, when asked what went wrong - “Other than play-calling, I couldn’t really tell you. I’m not blaming it on play-calling. We gotta go out there and execute, but I feel like we got a little conservative. I don’t know if it was the weather or what. I just ... I don’t know. I have to look at the film, see what happened.”
?Of course even after punting the ball away the Chiefs still could have won – Tennessee was in a scramble to get close enough for Ryan Succup, and only managed to set up a 53-yard FG attempt in the frigid conditions. The attempt would be even more difficult for a kicker that had spent the afternoon trying to stay warm, as opposed to players coming in and out of the game and getting their blood pumping, and Succup had also not had a PAT attempt on the previous Titans drive, when Mike Mularkey decided to go for two. Yet Reid reached into the coaches handbook of trying to freeze the kicker, calling a time-out right before Succup’s first attempt came up short. Hence the problem – by giving him that free attempt, he not only allowed Succup to warm up, but also to adjust. Let’s let the Tennessee kicker take it from there –
“The first ball, I thought, I really hit well. When it’s like 10 degrees outside the ball obviously doesn’t travel the way that it normally would. You don’t get the compression. I felt like I hit the first one good, and when it came up short, there was a second in my mind where I didn’t think I could reach it from there.
“So, on the second one, I kind of just had to throw technique out the window and really hit it as hard as I could. I told some of the guys this earlier. You could give me 10 kicks from there, and I don’t know if I can make one.”
?Item: It has generally been easy to trust John Harbaugh until…
The Ravens thumped the Eagles pretty good on Sunday. They won the yards per play by a full 2.0 per snap, and befuddled Carson Wentz, something that will be touched upon as a lead topic on Thursday, as the prelude to Giants/Eagles. The control was showing on the scoreboard, 27-17 Baltimore with 6:30 left in the game, and the Ravens facing a first down at the Philadelphia 11-yard line. Play smart, work the clock a little, get some points and both the game, and obviously important for many the point spread, would be put away.
And Joe Flacco proceeded to not only throw an interception on that first down play, but one that was returned for 34 yards to help set up what had been a struggling Philly offense for a momentum-turning scoring drive.
Why?
Harbaugh afterwards was a bit extreme in labeling it the “all-time worst call ever”, but then settled down for - "I'll take responsibility for it. I should have vetoed it right away. I like an aggressive mindset, but that was way too aggressive. It's the worst play call we've had, and it's my fault. It should have never happened. We should have never been in that situation as a result of that."
Flacco also could have vetoed the play by checking out of it at the line of scrimmage. He didn’t, and his post-game will not fill you with confidence in terms of laying 11-10 with a good coach and a savvy veteran QB - "Well, you can say it all you want but I mean, to be honest with you, my thought was, 'Shoot, Marty is going to give me a third touchdown pass on the day. I was kind of happy about it at that point, I mean, being selfish, but you've got to just take care of the football, and it's a non-issue."
Even WR Kamar Aiken could not help but discuss it – "We should never have put our defense in that situation. That's on us as an offense. We should have just taken care of the ball, and it should never have gotten to that."
Then more from Harbaugh, after a day’s worth of reflection - “It’s not a good call. Should have vetoed it. Didn’t. Got a little greedy. It wasn’t executed well, either, and I think Joe said that. I liked what Joe said. He said something along the lines of, ‘I’ve got to take care of the football.’ And he knows that. So that’s all of us together, and we’ve got to work to do that. You don’t want to put yourself in a situation to make it tougher than it is.”
And these are the supposed to be the guys that we like. Dropping down a tier…
Item: Meanwhile in Cincinnati
Hell, most charts would have Marvin Lewis in the upper half of NFL coaches given his longevity and track record, and the Bengals were leading Pittsburgh 20-18 in the fourth quarter before -
3rd and 1 at CIN 48?(9:08 - 4th)
B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to S.Coates (D.Kirkpatrick). PENALTY on CIN-P.Sims, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 48 - No Play.
1st and 10 at CIN 43?(9:01 - 4th)
B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to A.Brown. PENALTY on CIN-D.Kirkpatrick, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 43 - No Play.
1st and 10 at CIN 38?(8:55 - 4th)
(Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to L.Bell. PENALTY on CIN-D.Kirkpatrick, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 38 - No Play.
1st and 10 at CIN 33?(8:49 - 4th)
L.Bell right tackle to CIN 33 for no gain (P.Sims; D.Kirkpatrick). PENALTY on CIN-P.Sims, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 33 - No Play.
Four flags on four plays on the most important drive of the game will get you beat, and for the Bengals indeed it did, the Steelers scored a TD on that possession to supply the game’s final points. Yet this one does not create as much second-guessing, because aren’t major penalties at key times just who the Bengals are?
So is complaining afterwards. First from Sims for the unnecessary roughness penalty – “Heard the whistle when I was falling to the ground with him (Bell). That’s what I’m saying, refs want to call stuff when they want to. All you can do is agree with them. Not like they are going to go back and change it. They called it. Can’t do nothing about it.”
And then Dre Kilpartrick - “They let them do whatever they wanted to do and we couldn’t defend ourselves. They let them tug, they let them pull and they let them pull through the routes. They didn’t let us do the same. They didn’t let us hand-check back, so at the end of the day, that’s where my frustration comes from.”
Afterwards the Steelers were willing to go on the record as that being business as usual. From guard David Decastro - “Their emotions get real high in a game like this, history tells you that. It's one of those things that you try your best to keep your cool. Obviously, there were times we didn't but, I thought at the end of the game when it mattered, we did.” And from LeVeon Bell - “It was just a matter of time before they started getting called for it. That's just the way they play. They're not really that disciplined on the defensive side, and that showed in the last drive. It's been the same thing for the last couple of years.”
There will be more coming up on coaches later in the week, in particular what is likely the final home game for Rex Ryan, but now a couple of items to clean up that matter…
Item: Another look at Ty Montgomery (the definition has already changed)
A quick take here because the impact of Ty Montgomery assimilating into the RB role for the Green Bay offense was covered here last week but Sunday brought a plot twist. The Packer offense was effective again, putting up 451 yards at 7.8 per play, and they did indeed spread the field batter when Montgomery is at RB. His statistical performance in the ground game was also exceptional, 16 carries for 162 yards and two TDs, giving him three short-yardage TDs over the last two games, which is most significant. But was a lot of that production the Chicago defense being fooled by the scheme? Not when this came across -
Gordon McGuinness@PFF_Gordon?
156 of Ty Montgomery's 162 rushing yards today came after contact, and he forced seven missed tackles
Montgomery isn’t a converted WR playing RB anymore, he is now a RB playing RB, and a rather damn good one.
Item: Grading the Oakland/San Diego home field in the aftermath
There was discussion here about just what the home field advantage was going to be worth for the Chargers on Sunday, if anything at all, which mattered in turning a ticket then, and also in the game grading now. It can be summed up perhaps in just a few words from Phiip Rivers - “You saw us go to a silent count the whole game. It was a road game,”
But for even better detail from several players, this video lays it out awfully well.
Item: The best box score recap session of the season
No photos of a Las Vegas lunch outing this week, instead things get moved to a much higher level, annually the single best meal that I have – my mother’s stuffed cabbage on the first day back on the East Coast, even if this year's trip took far longer than it was scheduled to.
This is the part where most would expect me to wax poetic about all of the great memories through the years, and how eating that dish brings them back. That is a common sentiment, and would be easy to fall into. It would also be wrong. Sure, there are wonderful memories attached; but that does not come into play on the taste buds – it is the best meal each year not for sentimental reasons, but because it is so damn good.
This stuffed cabbage is taking what would be a basic Eastern European peasant comfort dish, a way of stretching basic ingredients to be filling, and elevating it to a special level. That is what can happen when something is made with love, and also gets better through the years of developing various nuances in putting it together.
You can try to do this at home, and while it won’t be as good as what I get to eat, it will be much better than what you are likely to find anywhere. No bland watered-down tomato sauce, but instead crushed tomatoes with plenty of garlic and onions, to create a bold and vibrant basting liquid, before turning into a wonderful sauce at the end. There was ground round, ground veal and ground pork in the meat mixture this time, and the rice should only be parboiled first, then cooled, before being added to the meat, so that it remains al dente, and not some kind of mushy filler. Sauerkraut is also layered throughout the roaster to bring more bite, and when it all comes together there is a boldness and balance that sparkles. Simple peasant comfort food? Not for a moment.
I could go also go on about the annual lattice-crust cranberry/cherry pie, but that would just be cruel…
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