Point Blank – November 23/24, 2016
Time to Talk Turkey on the Thursday gridirons…Diving into the pool for the 12th time (with plenty of room for swimming as the crowd thins)…It is the Seminole War Chant for Saturday night...
The flow is going to be a little different today – because this sermon will cover both Wednesday and Thursday the attention will turn directly to the Thanksgiving Day games, and some talking points to get the ball rolling as you build out your handicaps. The NFL brought us something to be thankful for partially by accident – in scheduling division matchups this time at Detroit and Dallas, it turns out the games really do matter.
Although we would all like to see our net worth increase over the next 48 hours, let’s also do it right by bringing in the proper focus and cherish what one of the most important Holidays of all brings, an opportunity to pause for some reflection, and be thankful for the life that has been given us to live. I would not be exaggerating to say that there are likely not many folks on the planet more grateful than I am, having literally lucked into an endeavor that has allowed for so many fascinating intellectual challenges through the years, as well as what has been learned from riding the spiritual roller coaster across the continuous ebbs and flows of bouncing balls. Those lessons not only come into play each day when the lines for a new board unfold, but also far from the playing field of sports, where the greatest life adventure of all is just beginning, something I never even could have imagined not all that long ago.
So over the next couple of days find at least a moment for yourself to celebrate who you are, with also the notion that included in that is who you are capable of being. Our greatest gratitude should not be for what we have, but instead for what we can become because of it, and if you accept that you will someday recognize that it is not about how high your ceiling is – when you live to the fullest of your abilities there is no ceiling.
That becomes the fitting way to close out our Leonard Cohen tribute cycle, and today we go to the last song from his last show, in Auckland, New Zealand back in December of 2013. It was an evening that Cohen almost assuredly could not have envisioned in his earlier days, the culmination of what was almost five straight years of touring the world, and doing something at the age of 79 that so many would have thought unfathomable. And he wasn’t done that night, going on to record two more albums. What could be a better Thanksgiving notion than being grateful for the ability to aim high? Just imagine Cohen’s feeling through this one, and search for what is unique in your own existence that can someday transport you to a place like that -
And if the path to your place happens to be winning some sports bets, there is not a damn thing wrong with that. So let’s get to it, first with the obligatory jump into the pool…
Survivor Pool Week #12
The numbers continue to shrink across most pools, the Chiefs claiming some victims last week, and it is a genuine “nitty-gritty” from here on out. This week brings a pair of competing options from my remaining list, Buffalo and New Orleans, but the call becomes easy in the separation – the Bills still have a home game vs. Cleveland that I can hold them back for (knock on wood). With Jared Goff not ready for a dome crowd at this stage, the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS get the call.
Week #1 – Kansas City
Week #2 – Carolina
Week #3 – Miami
Week #4 – Washington
Week #5 – New England
Week #6 – Tennessee
Week #7 – Cincinnati
Week #8 – Denver
Week #9 – Seattle
Week #10 – Arizona
Week #11 – NY Giants
Week #12 – NEW ORLEANS
I’ll save the NFL FANTASY QB segment for Friday, since this week’s value pick does not come from any of the Thanksgiving Day games.
Item: Will either the Vikings or Lions be able to run the ball
The game flow in Detroit provides an interesting read. A quick glance can make it appear to be an Under dynamic, similar to the earlier meeting in Minnesota when only 32 points hit the scoreboard in regulation, 10 of them coming in the final 25 seconds (and if not for some bad clock management by Mike Zimmer and his staff, that game would have likely ended 16-13 Vikings). But this is a classic time to talk about one of the conundrums of handicapping – the defense beating the offense in terms of the running game sometimes backfires when an Under is involved.
Here is the gist – while an Under bettor naturally wants the defense to win most of the battles, stopping the run too cold brings a risk. It calls for too many passes to be thrown, many of them being in unfavorable down-and-distance settings. Third-and-11 leads to far more pass rush than third-and-four, the QB having to wait longer in the pocket for the receivers to get beyond the chains. That increases the chances of a QB being sacked and fumbling, or of interceptions down the field. Those plays can turn into cheap scores, and of course there can also be the notion of more punts, with the opportunities for cheap scores from special teams mistakes.
You don’t have to go back far to understand these impacts – on Sunday I noted taking a Minnesota Team Total Under 20.5 ticket, and then watched the Vikings get held to 217 yards, including only 3.0 per rush attempt. Yet the ticket lost, courtesy of TDs from both the Minny defense and special teams. Now that comes front and center again because these two can’t run a lick.
YPG YPA
Lions 79.5 (#30) 3.6 (#28)
Vikings 70.0 (#32) 2.7 (#32)
Not much happened overland in the first meeting, when neither side reached 100 yards, and they combined to average 3.5 per attempt. But in 79 drop-backs by Matthew Stafford and Sam Bradford there were only three sacks and one interception, the big play bullet being dodged. The question in terms of Thursday’s game flow is whether they can dodge it again.
Item: Can the Redskins impact the Cowboys down-and-distance rhythm
The starting point here is much different from the opening game, the Cowboy offense being almost sublimely effective this season. Which such an adjective? The way they do it. They may only rate #3 in yards per play, behind Atlanta and these Redskins, but they have been masters of down and distance flow, and that is why the Football Outsiders chart them as the #1 offense – in terms of winning the battle vs. the defense on each play, they have been so awfully good, and can now become the first team ever to have nine straight games of 400+ yards.
It naturally starts with the running game, and when you have Ezekial Elliot and Alfred Morris behind the league’s best OL there is going to be success. That continually sets up favorable down-and-distance settings, which are a big part of why Dak Prescott’s INT% is a miserly 0.6 (just two picks in 316 attempts), and his Sack% at 4.2, the latter 38.1 percent below league average.
I bring this up as a subplot to focus on because why the Washington offense has been terrific, Kirk Cousins not just having a talented cluster at WR/TE to throw to, but also a unique group that brings a prototype of just about every player you would want from a design standpoint, the defense has struggled to get leverage up front. The Redskins are allowing 4.6 yards per rush, and after a short turnaround from playing on Sunday night, with travel included, will the defensive front be able to take the Cowboys out of their playing rhythm? It will be a full month since that defensive front last played a road game, a most unusual cycle, and if they are on their heels early it will become a long afternoon.
Now for the conundrum – there has been a big market surge to the Over in this one, 52 already getting out there, which would seem to make sense based on how effective the Dallas offense might be. But there is another issue that comes into play – part of their effectiveness is game management. While rating #1 in offensive efficiency the Cowboys are #4 in points scored. The discrepancy comes from their pacing, rating #32 in SPS, and taking more than a half second more between players than any other team. They may be effective enough to score a lot of points, but will they get off enough snaps?
Item: Can Tolzien be a great Scott in two practices/Did Le’Veon Bell get overworked
OK, so the answer to the first question is an easy one – there has not been nearly enough time for Tolzien to get up to speed, and even if there had been there is a major drop at QB for the Colts. A big part of the offense as it is currently structured is the ability of the signal caller to make the optimal reads at the line of scrimmage, and get them into the best play possible. Then comes executing the play. Tolzien can naturally be expected to struggle in both regards.
But might Bell struggle as well? Back on week #2 there was a critique of Mike Tomlin/Todd Haley using DeAngelo Williams too much in a Monday night win at Washington, Williams having 26 carries and catching six passes. That was a major load with a short week ahead, and while the Steelers were able to grind out a 24-16 win over the Bengals the following Sunday, Williams managed only 94 yards on 32 carries.
Fast forward to this game, and Bell is off of a Sunday load vs. Cleveland of 28 carries and eight pass receptions, 36 touches out of 64 Pittsburgh snaps. Yes, using your power back on a sloppy field is the best way to control a game. But could Bell absorbing that many hits become a factor on this short practice week? There may be some interesting opportunities out there in the props markets.
Item: Is Ed Orgeron The Gipper
LSU closing out the season under Orgeron has been a topic a few times, a unique character that coaches with his heart, and as such has inspired his players to go hard for him, regardless of where he has been coaching. But he also does not bring the polish that many programs are looking for in their lead guy, and might not even know how to tie a necktie.
Now comes the fascination of Thursday night, as the players talk about winning this one for Big Ed. You can use this, from senior CB Tre’Davious White, to help set the tone – “He’s changed the mindset of this team, the way we prepare, the enthusiasm we bring to practice. There’s not another guy I’d rather play for. And I can speak for the whole locker room.”
I believe the players will play hard for Orgeron, which will make things awkward for the administration if the Tigers also happen to play well. While the opportunity to bring in Tom Herman or Jimbo Fisher would not be passed up, LSU faces a difficulty if one of those two cannot be landed – the other candidates being discussed are not an inspiring lot, which is what may leave the Orgeron door open.
What does it mean on the field? It is not an easy call – while the markets made an LSU/Over surge that gave the impression Leonard Fournette might play, I am not hearing anything more than “game time decision”, and if he does play he may not be 100 percent, which was the case vs. Florida on Saturday. And the Tigers will be without key LB Kendall Beckwith, a discussion point that not only matters for this game, but in terms of the perceptions on another, which I will get to in a moment.
This has not been a good matchup for Kevin Sumlin, who went 0-4 SU and ATS against Les Miles, the Tigers consistently the more physical team at the line of scrimmage. The Aggies have been working to correct that in their recruiting, and also get the advantage of only coming off of UTSA on Saturday, while LSU was knocking heads with Florida in a much more draining game. Might that be enough for A&M to compete up front better than in the past? I believe it does, and if +7 ever turns into a “win” number, there may be enough value to bet a turkey leg, though nothing in this matchup will have me firing the full bird.
But the aftermath of Florida/LSU will have me in play elsewhere…
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA…
Regular readers will now that I am not nearly as high on this year’s Florida team as the marketplace, twice turning “In the Sights…” tickets against the Gators over the past month. And while the result was only a 1-1 split, add up the two box scores from those trips to Arkansas and LSU and what do you find? Florida trailing 50-26 in first downs and 891-511 on total offense. Yet the fact that the Gators managed to get a scoreboard win in Baton Rouge helps us in this week’s marketplace, and it puts #206 Florida State (8:00 Eastern), in play, with -7 available in the Wednesday morning trading, and this one good to -8 (that early -6.5 is no longer available, the bargain hunters doing what they were supposed to in cleaning that shelf out).
Many of the particulars from Saturday’s Florida win were covered in the Monday edition, but here is one I can take a step further – when LSU LB Beckwith was in the game the Gators had managed only 20 yards on nine runs; after he left it was 26-106. While there is some talent at RB, the Florida offense is nothing special at QB, OL and WR/TE, and a defense riddled by injuries allowed over 200 yards both running and passing in those road trips to Arkansas and LSU. Now Jim McElwain has to sort through the injuries with an awkward distraction as well – instead of this being a showdown against an in-state rival, next week’s clash vs. Alabama for the SEC championship is a much bigger priority.
For Florida State this is all that matters. The Seminoles come in not only focused, but about as fresh as a team can be this late in the season, having only toyed with Boston College and Syracuse in rolling 90-21 the past two weeks. The effort was impeccable considering how flat those games appeared to be on the schedule, and with Jimbo Fisher having his team play with attention to detail through those routs it bodes well for them to come up with something special here, now that there really is a prize for the players to aim for.
For your listening pleasure...
This week's NCAA Podcast can be found here, and here for the NFL.
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