Point Blank – November 7, 2016
What a Bettor Better Know – NCAA #10…You'll get some Tom Wants on this week every season, and a final projection on the circus that has been US Election 2016…
The plot thinned at the top in the Playoff chase this weekend, which means that unless there is a major upset over the closing schedule we’ll have Alabama, Clemson, Washington and the Michigan/Ohio State winner as the gang of four. I will get to some of that in a moment, because there are some misinterpretations from the Sports Mediaverse in the light of this weekend’s results that are worth delving into.
But there are 123 other lined teams that we also get opportunities to projected, and understanding how the game changes down the stretch for them is a crucial handicapping factor. November is a different time from what we have been charting over the past two months.
As we plug in the jukebox for background through another long Monday read the tie-in this week may become an annual one, Tom Waits with a song that he wrote for The Black Rider: The Casting of the Magic Bullets, a haunting stage play that brought together the collective genius of Waits, Robert Wilson and William Burroughs. Burroughs brought the words, much of it autobiographical, Waits the sound, and Wilson the direction to make it all work.
The tale is one of of addiction, something that would absolutely apply to the gambler’s consciousness, and over time other songs will be brought into play for their insight. Perhaps there will be a Black Rider week some day. To help set the proper handicapping mode for what is ahead, and to better get into the mindsets of the players and coaches down the stretch, let’s go to Waits with a rare live version of November, this from Atlanta in 2008 -
November has tied me
To an old dead tree
Get word to April
To Rescue me
And how many coaches can you image mumbling that verse right about now, wishing to snap their fingers and have it be the optimism of 2017 spring practice, instead of having to finish a lousy 2016 season heading nowhere. Bet let me start with the guys at the top first…
Item: Be careful with assumptions at the top of the charts
One of the late-season themes here as the weekly Playoff Committee cycle gets underway is that unbeaten power teams don’t need style points, and the better coaches are aware of that. If anything, those that have been through the full 15-game grinder that it takes to win it all are so aware of the difficulty that they will be savvy enough to back off when they can. On this year’s list three of the five prime contenders - Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney and Urban Meyer, have all been there.
So what did I listen to and read as the Sports Mediaverse covers the weekend? That folks like Meyer, and Washington’s Chris Petersen “sent a message” to the Committee.
Except they didn’t, and it really does matter from a perception standpoint.
Saban is a non-issue because of the nature of Alabama’s win over LSU, which was a legitimate battle into the latter stages. But note that neither Swinney nor Meyer did anything to stretch their margins, and in fact held them back, and for folks that did not stay up to watch Washington, Petersen didn’t either. Let’s get to them –
CLEMSON - Swinney was more than happy to just get off the field as quickly as possible in the fourth quarter vs. Syracuse. With DeShaun Watson sitting out from late in the second quarter on because of a shoulder injury, Swinney got good work out of back-up Nick Schuessler, but Schuessler did not play in the fourth quarter, and neither did any of the Tiger offensive starters. #3 QB Kelly Bryant got a series, and #4 QB Tucker got a pair of them, and the only Clemson TD in the fourth quarter came on a Pick-Six, not from the offense trying to make any plays.
OHIO STATE - I noted Meyer’s penchant for game management with a breakdown here earlier this season, yet the notion is still not likely to catch on across the betting public because of his reputation. So was he out there piling up style points vs. Nebraska? Not at all. There were no starters on the field in the fourth quarter, and the Buckeyes managed to burn 11:37 of game time with only 21 snaps. The reserves did score one TD because the Nebraska defense was not competing hard enough to stop them, going 98 yards in 11 plays, while only being forced to third down once in the process. Look at the time stamp of the last four snaps and you can see the focus was not on scoring – 9:38, 9:00, 8:29, 7:58 and 7:25. And the last possession was all about getting off the field, the final 6:16 burned off the clock without any hint of wanting to score.
WASHINGTON – The Huskies entered the week needing style points, and the final score might make it feel that they played it that way. But as is so often the case, the truth lies buried beneath the scoreboard. The Husky starters did not see the field on the final two drives, when Petersen did a masterful job of shutting the game down – the last two Washington possessions were 12 plays, all runs, that burned 8:03, which is a lot of clock to get out of a dozen snaps. It would have been more seconds ticking away, but one of the runs broke for a 49-yard TD by Lavon Coleman, which stopped the clock.
Swinney, Meyer and Petersen all won big on Saturday, yet none of them went out of their way, and each could have likely tacked another TD on has they chosen. That is important to remember in evaluating them going forward.
Item: It’s about attitude now for many teams, Part I
Now for the others. One of the mistakes many folks make as they grow older is to remember exactly what they were like when younger. Hence some improper expectations come into play. While those of us that do live on indeed get older and more experienced every year, college football players remain 18-22 forever, and are subject to the foibles that age brings.
One of the keys for the shrewd handicapper is to get into the mindset of each team in making their projections for the games ahead, and not just relying on the stat tables. For those with something left to play for the energy level may be higher than it was earlier, which can elevate the numbers, but there is also that dark “November” reality for many of the teams, who have to slog through games without any special motivation attached.
I am going to touch upon this a little today, but then bring it front-and-center as the lead for Wednesday, in part to keep today’s missive from running too long, but also that on Wednesday there will be the opportunity to delve into those Monday quotes from various coaches as they assess the week ahead, a time in which we can get some good measurements for the interest level of various teams.
To get you started on the process I can go back to a few teams that have been featured here recently that had much higher expectations than their 2016 reality turned out to be, Michigan State and Arizona, who both had another losing Saturday. Where do Mark Dantonio and the Spartans go from here, now that they are in a very different place? –
“We’re on a long road, everybody’s walking on that road. We may not all be right at the same time on that road. But there’s a long line of us on that road. And we’ve got to keep pushing and we’ve got to come out the other end. And that’s the only way I know to do it. If you take the foot of the accelerator and you stop grinding, bad things happen.”
At least Dantonio has the comfort of past successes, and the knowledge that he is allowed to begin working towards 2017 spring practice right now, perhaps jump-starting the energy level for the team by getting some younger players into the rotation. For Rodriguez, whose job may be in jeopardy despite the costly buy-out it would be for Arizona, he has already resigned himself to this - “For us, the only thing we can do right now is try to mess up someone else’s season.”
But at least they are still coaching players that have some pedigree, and may bring some individual pride. For others it gets much tougher, and it leads to something that gets written about here often, and while some folks joke about it there is a genuine reality – these guys really do go to class, and have significant daily obligations outside of football. So what happens when your body is tired, and your spirit is broken on the football field? You lower that emphasis, and put more time into other facets of being a college student.
In particular this matters at some of the schools with higher academic standards. Rice is 1-7, and has lost to the spread by 36 points the last two games. Just what can David Bailiff do to get his players energized for football the rest of the way?
Because this topic is so important I’ll bring it back as the lead on Wednesday, but for now let’s also take a quick peak at the other side of the motivational spectrum.
Item: For some teams going to a Bowl really is a big deal
I will detail the bowl prospects for various teams on Wednesday, mostly in terms of what they mean to the teams in terms of motivation, but to get some idea of that let’s head to Eastern Michigan/Ball State for Tuesday evening. How about this for perspective – there was not a single EMU player that had even been born the last time the program got a bowl bid, which was back in 1987. So how much does it mean to Chris Creighton as he attempts to rebuild what had been a hopeless program -
"Our goal is to go to a bowl and to win a bowl game. I realize there is a difference between bowl eligibility and a bowl guarantee, but six (wins) is a pretty magical number in college football right now. So our guys were aware of that. We've talked about it a lot before the season, and we were just focused on going 1-0 to get there. I told them that it would be more significant than whoever wins the national championship. That's how we feel about it."
Of course positive motivation is not entirely good for a team that is unaccustomed to winning – it also means that there is pressure building up, and one of the reasons for a lack of success is a team failing to handle pressure well. But there is some significant food for thought with this particular team, and the concept in general.
Item: Breaking down that swing play in Lubbock
One of the annual takes here will be “The Play’s The Thing”, a chance to work in a little Shakespeare on the vagaries of sport, and what a single bounce of the ball can mean in terms of a game outcome. Texas/Texas Tech brought one of the all-timers on Saturday.
The Longhorns were trailing 16-14, midway through the second quarter, when a penalty and a pair of incomplete passes backed them into a third-and-goal from the Red Raider 24-yard line. Charlie Strong and Sterlin Gilbert opted to play it safe and set up a FG attempt by running a draw to D’Onta Foreman, but because it was the Texas Tech defense that play turned into a chance to score, Foreman bulling his way to the goal line where a pile of players got into what was much like a rugby scrum.
It appeared that the mass of players was moving just enough towards the end zone for Foreman to make it, and he indeed got the football within a few inches of the goal line. But he was vulnerable inside of that pile, and Tech’s Douglas Coleman was not only able to wrestle the ball from him, but to find a clear path down the sidelines for a 100-yard return for a TD.
This is football grading at its most challenging. The Texas Tech defense made a terrible play; allowing a 24-yard TD run up the middle on a third-and-goal play would be about as bad as it gets. At least the stat column will get it right, but the scoreboard misses the proper grading by a full 14 points on that one.
As a handicapper are you allowed to grade the play as a Texas TD, and wipe it off the board for Tech? Yes, given how the rest of the game flowed. The Longhorns won the yards per play by a significant 7.4 to 4.9, and if you saw 52-30 attached to that it would appear correct. At worst you should make it 45-30, with the Red Raiders not deserving any points for that play.
Now for some more tricky Saturday grading…
Item: Notre Dame/Navy only produced five Second Half possessions
One of the focus points in the early part of last Monday’s thread was a look-ahead to Notre Dame/Navy and how unique the cycle was for the Fighting Irish – for the first time in memory a team was going to face Navy and Army on consecutive weeks, which meant an all-out approach in terms of defending the option, without any concerns about being thrown out of sync for other games. And since the Fighting Irish are one of 2016’s biggest disappointments, they entered the sequence still needing wins to become bowl eligible.
Yet for all of the prep that went into building the defensive game plan Notre Dame could not get the Navy offense off the field, and that was despite doing a sound job tactically. It created a rather intriguing second half flow, one in which the Fighting Irish only got the ball twice, and while the offense scored 10 points on those two drives, it was not enough.
It wasn’t that the defense was bad – Navy had the ball for 39 plays in the final two quarters, and 19 of them gained two yards or less (in terms of proper grading it was 17 of 37; I take out a one-yard TD run, and a kneel-down on the final play). But the Midshipmen kept grinding just enough to stay on track, and for them being on track means close enough to go for it on fourth down. They attempted five conversions in the game, and made four of them, which takes both a physical and mental toll on a defense. Let’s let the Notre Dame players detail it:
LB James Onwualu - “Getting those stops is tough. When they get into fourth down and they’re going for it and you get a third down stop and now you have to get another stop, it’s tough for a defense. We needed to make a couple more plays.” And DE Isaac Rochell - “The toughest part is the idea of winning third down (because) you need to win fourth down, too. It kind of takes away your ideology of, ‘Let’s win on third down.’ It is taxing. You’re not done after three.”
Notre Dame was fundamentally sound against the option, outside of allowing a 60-yard run by Navy QB Will Worth, but just not quite good enough. It created some fascinating visuals as I put the handicap together for this week’s game vs. Army. And kudos once again for Ken Niumatalolo for the way he has the Midshipmen again playing with such precision – they are not only at their accustomed #1 in the nation for fewest penalty yards, but have given away a remarkable 111 fewer yards than any other team (Wisconsin is #2).
Item: South Carolina is undefeated with Jake Bentley at QB
Sub-Item: Miami O. is undefeated with Gus Ragland at QB
As the focus turns towards teams that are finding motivation down the stretch, note how a change at QB can be so important, bringing a spark to a team that is in need of one. One of the prime gambles made along that front came at South Carolina, when Will Muschamp pulled the red-shirt off of Jake Bentley during the Gamecocks bye a couple of weeks ago. Since then it has been a 3-0 run, including a pair of SEC wins, and what could have been a lost season now has SC fighting for a bowl spot (yes, and technically still alive in the rather uninspiring SEC East race). And if Bentley looks a bit precocious with his helmet off there is a reason for that – he graduated from high school following his junior season of eligibility.
Bentley has completed 73.0 percent of his passes, with six TDs and no interceptions, but has impressed more by his handle of the offensive than any eye-catching physical skills. Perhaps that is why Muschamp felt the time was already at hand to let him play - “He’s very level-headed. I’m not saying it doesn’t surprise me, but I don’t think the moment is too big. I think he handles the moment very well. He’s very humble. He’s appreciative of his teammates. He’s not a guy who is going to look in the mirror and think it’s about him.”
?There is something similar happening at Miami, where the RedHawks have not been to a bowl since 2010, and yet head to their final two games with a chance to become eligible. At 6-6 they would not be guaranteed anything anyway, but that is a hell of a climb from 0-6, which is where they were before Ragland, a red-shirt sophomore, was promoted to being the starting QB.
Much like Bentley, it is not a physical dynamic that jumps out from Ragland, but instead his poise in running the show – it has been 10 TD passes without a single interception. Yes, there is some scheduling luck of the draw that has played a part, which continues against Buffalo and Ball State over the last two games – it is nice to be in the MAC and not face Toledo or Western Michigan. But again the November key – it is how the players feel about themselves right now that matters, and the Miami O. attitude is likely the best it has been at this time of the season in the careers of any of the current roster.
Item: But don’t get excited about Jeff George Jr., yet
There might be a temptation for some to lump George Jr. in with Bentley and Ragland in terms of QBs that are helping to give their teams a spark down the stretch, but I am not sure it fits. There was indeed some high drama at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, George Jr. throwing a TD pass to Sam Mays with 1:35 remaining to provide the winning score for Illinois against Michigan State, and it happened on Dads Day in Champagne, with his father there to watch. But Illinois was not very good in the game, trailing 28-14 in first downs and 491-306 in total offense, and George Jr. has not shown much pedigree yet, with a couple of pass interference penalties needed on the final drive to keep the Illini alive.
George Jr. has yet to complete at least half of his passes in any game, and sits at a rather dismal 33-78, good for only 391 yards. Of the 128 lined teams, that yards-per-pass would rate dead last. That leaves Lovie Smith with another of the many conundrums he is facing in trying to rebuild the program – Wes Lunt is a lot better than George Jr. at this stage, and is healthy enough to play again. Does Smith go with Lunt on the road against a tough Wisconsin defense this week, bringing the best chance to compete in the game, or does he look towards the future and hope that there is something that can be built around George Jr.? And is there a consideration to the latter possibly having his confidence shattered on the road against this class of defense? That will be worth following as the week goes on, another of those November issues that confront coaches.
And speaking of November, this cycle in the United States brings some decisions for others as well…
Item: Election 2016, the Final Rating
If it feels like the 2016 US Presidential Election has taken longer than the period between World Series wins for the Cubs, I sympathize with you. It is the unfortunate nature of the 24/7 media climate we are in, and also the particular candidates contributing even more towards what should go down as a frustrating cycle for any genuinely concerned citizen of the country. But because some of the very elements that made it such a mess also created investment opportunity, it has been a topic here, and as the finish line approaches it is time to wrap things up.
Back in July there was the opportunity to lock in on the Democrats at what I felt was a strong value point, and the following week there was a breakdown of how the “xFAV” model works in terms of projections. The model has not been updated as often as originally planned because there was so much sloppy polling in play, but in addition to wanting to win a few wagers I am also helping an academic group with some side research through this process, so this past weekend there was some updating done. And in truth not all that much has changed – I have noted in the threads over the past month or so that it would have shown the Democrats in the -750 to -850 range if the time was taken to narrow it down, and that is where the bottom line falls. Let’s call it Democrats -825.
Note that this equation is a little different from a sports money line, in which likelihood and margin are correlated. Our rating does not necessarily call for a blowout result, but instead the likelihood of the winner given the current layout of the states in the Electoral College. It was noted from the start that the Republicans faced a difficult challenge, not only having to win every available swing state, but also having to turn states rated as “True Blue” in order to win. Back in August the power rating was elevated to -700, and there was a table showing just how difficult the map was – at that point what was considered True Blue already had the Democrats at 273 EC votes. Since then there has only appeared to be the prospect of one being genuinely in play, New Hampshire, but at the same time has emerged the likely prospect that Nevada goes blue, which would wash that out anyway. So the model projects that the Republicans could win Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Arizona, and still not reach 270 in the EC. Hence the closing count at -825.
And to refresh the memories from the weekend thread, since the price point is still out there -
In the Sights, NFL…
We’ll have to wait until Monday night for the best value on the NFL board, and it takes us to #473 Buffalo Team Total Under (8:30 Eastern), with 17.5 commonly available in the Sunday trading.
I have written at-length about the Seattle defense in the last two Tuesday recaps, noting the grit the Seahawks showed despite having been on the field so long at Arizona and New Orleans the past two weeks, yet allowing only two TDs through that stretch, one of them on a short field after a Russell Wilson interception vs. the Saints. It is a group that now gets a badly needed extra day of rest, and while Kim Chancellor will miss one more game, they have managed to adapt well to his absence.
I believe the Buffalo offensive numbers are misleading, which has helped to create a false market impression. The Bills put up fantastic rushing counts in back-to-back games vs. the Rams and 49ers, but it came when both teams were facing major injury issues, and then did some scoreboard/box score padding in each of the last two games, going 75 yards for a TD on the final drive vs. Miami when trailing in double figures (they scored with 0:14 remaining, the Dolphin prevent properly draining the clock), and then 66 yards on the last possessions vs. New England, scoring with 0:30 left. With LeSean McCoy and Robert Woods playing through injuries the Buffalo will be hard-pressed to get into a flow here, with Tyrod Taylor facing a night crowd in Seattle, which provides arguably the toughest challenge for a QB in the NFL.
In the Sights, Monday NBA…
A nice little attachment to the Monday lunch break was the find the markets opening an opportunity for this even, and with 196 having made its way to 198, it is time for #721 Clippers/Pistons Under (10:35 Eastern), with 198 being where the value bell rings. In this one we get two of the best defensive teams in the league, the Clippers opening #1 and the Pistons #5 to date, with rim-protectors on both ends of the court in Drummond/Jordan; both teams having had Sunday off to build a defensive game plan; and neither coach looking to wreck our purposes.
There have been many takes written here about Doc Rivers in the past, and his penchant for grinding as a big favorite. Having played at this level himself, and having coached teams into the Finals, he understands the grind as well as any HC, and that means reducing possessions when in control. But Stan Van Gundy brings a flip side here that also makes sense – the Pistons were 4-1 to the Under as road underdogs in the regular season LY, and while that is a small sample, it is a sampling that fits the foundation of his coaching style.
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