Point Blank – September 14
Adding “Layers” to your NCAA handicapping…Having barely survived Week #1, time to get back in the Pool…It is an Ernie Banks day on the diamonds – “Let’s Play Two”…
Today it will be a tour though a traditional “layer” of NCAA handicapping that is a valuable tool to have in the repertoire, a good indicator against markets that are shifting too fast. This week the Survivor pick will be dull, but after literally only surviving with the Chiefs last week, that may be a good thing., and the MLB board will have two tickets going, one that you should already have been expecting.
Item: Houston/Cincinnati kicks off the 2016 “Layering” parade
I am not sure I will have anything in pocket in what is already a bigger showcase on Thursday night than ESPN likely thought they had when the schedule was set – that Houston win over Oklahoma puts the Cougars into an awfully interesting spot on the national map. But the trip by Tom Herman’s team to Cincinnati does bring a key handicapping notion into play, so let’s introduce it and set the stage for what can be a valuable exercise across each season. I call it “Layering”.
What is the concept about? A way to build foundations into power ratings that help to showcase when the markets might be reacting a little too quickly as a new season unfolds, the classic notion of “Recency Bias”. That is certainly the case with a team like Houston, off of that high-profile upset of Oklahoma two weeks ago. So as many of you focus in on Greg Ward and company heading to Cincinnati to play in front of those national cameras it is a good spotlight to both show the concept, and also to note those times in which it is of lesser meaning.
By the way, Ward appears to be fine – he was held out of Saturday’s easy win over Lamar but was already back on the practice field Sunday night. Had Houston had a tougher opponent last week he likely would have played.
What is worth your time in compiling are the last four head-to-head results between any programs that meet annually. This represents the career arcs of the current fifth-year seniors. It can give you a good feel for the relative talent gaps between the programs, the way the coaches match up to each other, the psyche of the players from those encounters, and also how the markets have had them rated. By doing that, when you see a major deviation from the pattern being projected you can then measure whether something has genuinely happened to alter the balance, or if the markets have run too far.
In most cases I like to focus on matchups in which there has not been a coaching change, so that there is a degree of stability. Changes in college football tend to be incremental, without major explosions or crashes, as long as the particular fundamentals of how a coach wants to play, and the kind of players he recruits for his systems, remain. Naturally there has been a violation of that in Houston/Cincinnati, which I will get to in a moment, but first for the base.
The best way to perform this exercise is to chart the recent meetings as though they were on a neutral field. When I do the tables I plug in my home field ratings, but for simplicity here let’s just use the base of a 3-point home field advantage. That means taking three points away from the home team for each game. So here are the recent results for Cougars/Bearcats, the winning team listed first (in CAPS if they were at home), then the line adjusted to a neutral field, plus the final score -
Team Line Score
2013 cin -1.5 24-17
2014 CIN -4 38-31
2015 HOU -4.5 33-30
These teams did not meet in 2012. Now we go to the average line, and average game outcome, and this time there are also three points removed from the home team for each scoreboard result -
Market Scoreboard
CIN -.3 CIN +4.7
Which tells us that over the last three seasons the betting markets have felt that the Bearcats were slightly better, and the scoreboard has brought an edge to that side. In the last encounter Houston was projected as -4.5 better on a neutral field, a major adjustment off of 2014 that proved to be too much; now for Thursday that has been raised to -10.5. They are saying that Houston is substantially better, despite little indication of that from the head-to-head outcomes.
Have the programs changed that much that quickly? There are indeed mitigating circumstances here, those being the coaching change in Houston, where Tom Herman has taken over and quickly elevated the Cougars. Herman gets written about here often, and may have as high of a ceiling as any young coach in the sport. Hence I am a bit neutral for now, having made a slight positive adjustment to my Houston power rating for Ward not playing on Saturday, which makes him fresher in a short practice week. But what this exercise does show is that the markets are beginning to put a premium on Herman’s team, and that is a valuable notion.
Let’s go to another game that has a touch of “layering” that brings some food for thought this week.
Item: But sometimes the Sports Mediaverse also gets it correctly
Florida State/Louisville has a chance to be a lot of fun, in particular Lamar Jackson vs. the Seminole defense. FSU becomes the first team to get a second look at him, though given his abilities I am not sure how much that helps. Many of you will be looking to break that game down as the week goes on, so let’s take a look at what could be a key aspect.
Part of Tuesday’s review of NFL Week #1 focused on how some of the narratives from the Sports Mediaverse often present storylines that lack degrees of truth, and of course a big part of what we all do each day is try to take advantage of misinformation. But there are also times in which someone gets something right, and this take from Jared Shanker at ESPN is worth your while to read through.
The key question this week is not so much what Jackson can do vs. the Seminole defense, but whether or not Bobby Petrino has recruited enough talent yet to have the depth to hang with Florida State for the full 60 minutes. There is an intriguing layering aspect that has come from their first two meetings since the Cardinals joining the ACC – while FSU was only a moderate favorite, -6.5 on a neutral in 2014 and -3.5 last year, the ‘Noles won the scoreboards by 31, or 10.5 more per game than the markets projected.
It is how those scoreboards got produced that brings the food for thought – Florida State won the second half of those games 70-24. That shows the gap in depth between the programs, and also the conditioning that Shanker wrote about. Petrino has now had another recruiting year to tighten that up; on Saturday we will see if he has accomplished the goal.
Survivor Pool Week #2
The opening play on Kansas City was little more than dumb luck in surviving, a bad idea that deserved banishment, but instead brought an escape. Then things got interesting as hell later before Seattle converted a pair of fourth downs on the final drive to get past Miami – had the Seahawks lost, along with the Cardinals, there are some pools that would have eliminated over half of their entrants the first week.
This week it is as simple as it gets – the Carolina Panthers will be a “must use” team this season, and this is the best setting to put them into play.
Week #1 – Kansas City
Week #2 - CAROLINA
Now time for some Wednesday bases…
In the Sights, Wednesday MLB…
I am going to save time by playing a pair today, the efficiency of the workday being made better because I won’t have to answer this question – “Should we be coming right back on the Mariners tonight?” The answer is yes, so make it #927 Seattle (10:05 Eastern) once more, a 50-50 split between Side and Run Line, good up to -145 and -1.5 +115. The Mariners have out-scored the opposition by a 71-30 count since beginning that series vs. Texas last week, including a 36-8 in a 5-0 run on this road trip, and last night’s one-sided affair sets this up well, Taijuan Walker’s complete-game bringing in a fresh bullpen behind the steady Hisashi Iwakuma.
Meanwhile for the Angels it is the wrong time to be having to send out the struggling Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin has sputtered to a 5-8/5.62 this season, and even if he has his best stuff stamina is an issue, not having completed the 6th inning in a game since May (eight starts since then). The Angels bullpen has been badly over-taxed, the starters having lasted only 50.1 frames over the last 11 games, and is in for another difficult ride, which can help the Run Line aspect.
I will also be backing #924 Chicago White Sox (8:10 Eastern), one of those games the markets can fall asleep on, when an also-ran is bringing a lot of energy to the field, and has a pitcher with a major sense of purpose on the mound. Chicago has gone 5-3 in this home-stand despite facing contenders Detroit, Kansas City and Cleveland, and the White Sox have whipped The Tribe 19-5 the last two nights. They are only four games under .500 now so it is not just about playing spoiler, but having the opportunity to finish with a winning season. The same positive team energy will also be found individually from Carlos Rodon on the mound.
Rodon has the tools for a genuine upside, with consistency formerly the issue, but he has kept working and has found his groove – it has been a sparkling 5-0/1.85 since August 1, and those outcomes have not been a fluke. Rodon has more strikeouts (40) than hits allowed (37) through this stretch, and has only walked five batters across his last five starts. Last night’s easy win also means all key bullpen arms are rested and ready.
Meanwhile the Indians are sending Josh Tomlin back out again, and his confidence could be at an extremely low ebb. Tomlin is a guy with below average stuff that does not have much margin for error, yet got off to a remarkably good start to 2016, which made him the lead topic on this page three months ago.
What Baseball gives it does eventually take away, and Tomlin’s season has simply crashed. It has been a disastrous 0-5/11.20 since August 1, only finishing the 5th inning one time in six starts, and he has only thrown one inning of relief over the last two weeks. For a guy that must have pinpoint control to succeed getting a rhythm back may not be easy. But it is not all about recent form - for the full season Rodon beats Tomlin by more than a full run in ERA, FIP and SIERA, which shows the bargain price he is trading at this morning, with value extending up to -125.
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