Point Blank – August 5
It is time to bet some NFL Week #1 (let the fireworks begin and the balloons fly)…Will the 49ers be a block off the old Chip… Some helpful links as your 2016 Prep Work begins, and the Brett Hundley watch heats up…The Cubs will have a better pitcher on the mound in all nine innings tonight (and there is a way to take advantage of that)…This may not be a good weekend to watch television if you are Donald Trump…
The daily tour through the NFL training camps takes us to San Francisco now, but the focus is going to be a little different. Since the talking point with the 49ers is a rather obvious one, how Chip Kelly can cobble together an offense that can run his preferred uptempo style out of bad puzzle pieces, I will not be saying anything all that unique. The difference is that I am going to step up and make a bet with it.
Item: Are the betting markets reading Chip Kelly wrong?
I don’t have to go on at length about Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert; they aren’t very good, and it is not a stretch to say the 49ers have the league’s worst QB rotation (though Cleveland can challenge that). Those QBs are matched up with what may well be the NFL’s worst WR group as well. The RB can at least be among league average, but they have to find holes behind an OL that will be lower quadrant.
So does a coach want to take this group and speed the pace? That could be suicidal. With this kind of offense you actually want to run fewer plays, not more, because winning games will be more about giving the defense opportunities to have impact. And there is an added aspect of trying to go uptempo when there is a QB battle going at play – if it is a case of just one guy it is much easier, but the constant switching in practice makes it difficult.
On Thursday the two QBs were just 10-27 in 11-on-11 drills, and Kaepernick even had an 0-4 cycle in seven-on-seven. What each of them need to do is learn the base playbook first, and for Kelly to in turn learn about them to make his tweaks, before tempo becomes much of a factor at all. I am also not one getting caught up in the “Kaepernick is a fit for the Kelly playbook” narrative. Some across the Sports Mediaverse have fallen into that because Kaepernick is a good runner, but while he is indeed “fast” when he gets up to speed, he is not necessarily “quick” because of his frame. There is a difference.
The 49ers were #26 in offense on the Football Outsiders adjusted ratings for 2015, and the only new piece added to the puzzle is free-agent guard Zane Beadles, who is a drop from the departed Alex Boone anyway. And note that Anquan Bolden, now with Detroit, caught more than twice as many passes (69) as any other player (Torrey Smith with 33). As such, I do not expect San Francisco to come out of the gate with a blazing pace on offense, and even if there is an attempt at that it just means a lot of quick 3-and-outs anyway.
Now for the market aspect of this. The average San Francisco Total was 43.0 last year. When the 49ers played the Rams the posted Totals were 41 and 39.5, and the scoreboards produced 33 and 35. Yet somehow the Week #1 Monday night affair between these teams is sitting on a 46. So instead of going into more detail about the 49ers, let’s just play…
In the Sights, NFL Week #1…
If you have been reading along the last two days it is easy to put this one together – outside of Todd Gurley these are two of the weakest offensive rosters in the NFL, and if you were to make a case that the WR groups were last and next-to-last, you will not get an argument from me. So with the markets taking what I believe is the wrong view on what the Chip Kelly impact is going to mean let’s take advantage now, #482 San Francisco/Los Angeles Under (10:20 Eastern) in that opener, good at 45 or better, with 46 easy to find now.
I like both of these defenses, which easily controlled the opposing offenses head-to-head last year. And with both teams having to split their QB time in camp neither offense will come out with a high degree of chemistry. But also factored in here is that in a season in which neither of these teams are likely in any playoff hunt, this is a legit opportunity for each of them to win a game. When coaches that won’t win often get a chance to grab one it leads to more conservative play. I believe we will look back later in the season and see that this one was priced in the wrong range.
Item: On doing your pre-season NFL prep
Much of this has been discussed across the post-column threads over the past week, but I know that the Hall of Fame weekend brings a lot of new readers in, and this is the time that many of you begin your off-season NFL work. So as promised let me share some of the places that can be of benefit to you.
The best source for daily year-round NFL tracking, and in particular during training camp, is The Red Zone. It is one of my favorites in all of sports because of how much time is saved. The best pre-season read annually is the Football Outsiders Almanac which you can get either in print version, or as a PDF for your various devices. And of course that site is a tremendous resource throughout the season, as is Pro Football Focus. I use those two sites an awful lot, and have built my work rhythm and processes around them – in some ways it is better to get the maximum out of a couple of good sites, rather than wander throughout the jungle only getting a little from too many others.
For research into a lot of past statistical questions there is Pro Football Reference which is built without many bells and whistles so it allows for easy use. And for a quick search for any box score back to 1994, here is a handy and particularly easy to use site that is not burdened by any bells and whistles at all.
That will get you started, with many more to come,and perhaps some of you can chime in with your preferred places to track past pointspred results - since I keep all of my own in-house, and do not use the web. In particular you may need The Red Zone this weekend, looking for insights as to whether Brett Hundley is going to play in Packers/Colts on Sunday night. So let’s get to that.
Item: The Hall of Fame Game
This is going to be the usual dull affair that is more “scrimmage” than “game”, neither coach wishing to get any key players hurt. But there is a twist this time – while the game is often marred by bad QB play, the Packers might take it to a new level this week.
The big question is whether Hundley, who is emerging as a prospect, will play. If he doesn’t, that leaves the Packers with something I cannot ever recall in terms of a QB rotation – a pair of undrafted rookies, Joe Callahan (Wesley College) and Marquise Williams (North Carolina). I am not sure if either is much of a prospect.
With Aaron Rodgers unlikely to have shoulder pads on, the Hundley news is something to be extremely alert to, although most likely you will see the betting markets jumping before you will find a link (there was some significant Under money already this morning). That is how the pre-season works. Colts, Full Game Under and Green Bay Team Total Under can all be fits in the current price range if there is no Hundley – I would think Indy up to -2.5, Full Game Under at 35 or better and Packers Under 17 can all fit. But that is only with Hundley out, and there is not enough known to be able to pull an early trigger. Also keep in mind that the trigger should only be firing BB’s right now anyway; this is not the kind of game for heavy ammo.
Now let’s build the bankroll a bit across a couple of fronts before football begins...
In the Sights, Friday MLB…
I don’t think there is anything wrong with Jon Lester. I am not sure there is much of anything right with Dillon Overton at the moment. And with a major bullpen blowout in the latter stages, that makes it a value to get behind #927 Cubs Run Line (10:05) this evening, a nice break from the early markets to shorten that one up to bring -1.5 -120 into play (up to -130 is still a fit).
Lester went through an ugly cycle in which he allowed 18 runs over 16 innings across a four-game stretch, but he showed superb command in shutting the Mariners out in his last outing (more strikeouts than base-runners allowed), and can begin making up for lost time here. Behind him is not only a bullpen that may be MLB’s deepest, and perhaps best, but one that also brings all arms rested and ready.
For Oakland the pitching set-up is nearer the opposite end of the spectrum. Overton got in over 100 innings at AAA in solid fashion this season, and is an OK prospect, but he may not quite be ready for a Major League mound, with far too few strikeouts (5.4 K/9), and a frightening count of just 21.1 in GB%. Ordinarily when we see a 9.33 ERA across only four starts there is some Baseball randomness in play but that has not been the case – FIP registers an almost exact match at 9.29. That is how the numbers crunch when you have allowed over a 3:1 ratio in Hits vs. Strikeouts (34 to 11), and have been tagged for nine HRs over just 18.1 innings. Overton is no guarantee to eat innings, and that becomes a major factor in a night-to-day transition into Saturday – the Oakland bullpen is gassed, only getting four innings each from Kendall Graveman and Jesse Hahn the last two days in Anaheim. Hence this could become a “take one for the team” setting if the Cubs break it open early, which helps our particular aim.
Election 2016 Power Rating: Democrats -500
It is time to upgrade one more time before what could be a damaging “talking heads” weekend for the Trump/Republican side, which will then impact the marketplace at the first of next week. Part of what builds into this is also something tangible that is coming into the process in terms of outcome – there are trusted reports that the Democrats will be reducing ad buys in Colorado and Virginia to shift money to other states that they believe may be coming into reach via their internal polling. As such, when a poll gets released on Friday morning showing the Democrats leading in a state such as Georgia, it is a “tell” as to how the next few cycle may flow. The Punditry gabfest this weekend is likely to be filled with a lot of negatives towards the Trump side, which will shape further perception and lead to the next wave at the betting windows. This adjustment is a case of staying ahead of the anticipated market flow, so I believe there is a value point in laying up to -325 now, which will create a position that should bring some ability to maneuver later.
In the Sights, Sunday MLB…
When Matt Shoemaker put together a 2.06 ERA across a span of eight starts earlier much of that was attributed to a tweak in his repertoire, and the question became whether that was real for the long-term, or just one of those baseball episodes that happen from time to time. Since July 1st Shoemaker has worked to a 3-4/4.70, which seems to have answered that question, yet the lingering market respect from his earlier surge helps to bring a favorable price point to play #924 Seattle (4:10 Eastern), with as low as -112 available in the early trading, and the value bell ringing up to -125.
I have backed James Paxton ideas in each of his last two outings, only getting a refund for Monday’s First Half ticket despite the Seattle lefty opening with five shutouts innings vs. Boston, but the running narrative remains that his pitches are much better than the 3-5/3.93 outcomes show. Only Noah Syndergaard has an average fastball clocking better than Paxton’s 97.1, with no other left-handed starter above 94.0, yet that heat is also under control, with a 2.1 BB/9, and down in the strike zone in producing a 49.1 GB%. Over his last three starts it has been 21 strikeouts vs. only two walks allowed, and that included legit challenges vs. the Toronto and Boston offenses.
The only slight negative here is current Seattle closer Edwin Diaz having worked back-to-back games, but he only threw 23 pitches and may be available. Even with attaching a fatigue rating to him the Mariners still hold the late-game edges of an Angels pen that is #28 full for the full season in WAR, and has been overworked in this series with Tim Lincecum and Tyler Skaggs failing to reach a full nine innings between their combined starts. With Shoemaker sitting on a 3-7/5.00 on the road, only finishing the 7th inning twice, that bullpen will likely have to play a key role again.
Chicago Cubs 200 Prop (through August 4): 30
16 contestants left, some not for long…
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