Point Blank – July 28
Can the Falcons become a Mighty Quinn Defense (yes, the jukebox will play the song during the season, there are some fabulous versions out there)…Is it Buy or Sell on Sale (the markets have already made their call)…Time to get on board the Aaron Nola train…
The MLB card shrinks a bit on Thursday, as will likely the activity from the pocket, after a busy Wednesday in which the markets brought added value to the handicapping inclinations, which is a breath of fresh air in the MLB market, one that has been rather sharp up to this point.
The focus turns first to the NFL, with Atlanta being the next stop in the tour across the league, and there is a fundamental handicapping aspect that comes into play – knowing the designs of new coaches as they build out their programs is absolutely essential.
Item: Can the Falcons become a Dan Quinn defense in 2016?
There are so many ways to view Atlanta’s roller coaster of 2015, the Falcons going from 6-1 to 8-8, and many will start in the more sexier football arenas – gosh was Julio Jones good, but can Matt Ryan and new OC Kyle Shanahan get on the same page. There is some validity in studying those components, especially with Mohamed Sanu on board to open up the field for Jones, and the playbook for Ryan/Shanahan. But I don’t believe that is the proper focus point – in season #2 for Dan Quinn, I will be looking more towards Quinn putting his stamp on the team, and there may indeed have been something to see in 2015 that many would have missed.
Quinn is a defense guy, and in his two seasons as the Seattle defensive coordinator the Seahawks were outstanding, built off of a particular aggression. That made for quite a challenge in Atlanta, where the Falcons were awfully soft on that side of the ball. So let’s set the perspective, using the Football Outsiders weighted defensive tables –
Atlanta Defense
2013 #30
2014 #32
2015 #22
Quinn’s first season brought a substantial impact, though possibly far off of the market perceptions. If you go from good to great you get noticed. If you go from bad to good you get noticed. If you go from terrible to below average, folks will yawn.
Now let’s add more to that. Was it a case of Quinn installing his system, and getting the Falcons to play more aggressively? Not really, because the personnel was not there, as the 2013/2014 numbers indicate. The Falcons were dead last in both net sacks, and net sack percentage, and they were almost in a league of their own –
2015 Sacks Sack%
NFL average 37.1 6.1
Atlanta 19 3.3
The Atlanta defense generated a pass rush at a level that made them only slightly more than half of an average team. Quinn did not take them from #32 to #22 with his real playbook, he did it more by tightening up the fundamentals with what was already there. Now the changes may come.
The Falcons brought in likely starters in DE Derrick Shelby and LB Sean Weatherspoon through free agency, and LB Courtney Upshaw will also see a lot of snaps. In the first two rounds of the draft came SS Keanu Neal and LB Deion Jones, and in particular note that they are not just talent upgrades, but prototypes of a Quinn defense – they can both run and hit. It would also not be a surprise if Dwight Freeney was added to the roster soon as another pass rush option. Now that some pieces are there for a puzzle to be assembled, let’s let Quinn’s own words set the direction -
“It’s a really strong group. These guys really want to battle together. We don’t want to put so much out there, so far ahead of the player, when right here, right now, that’s really what we can control. That’s the message that we send right now. Stick to the process. How good can you get right now? We’ve got a long time to play before we get into that (playoffs) discussion. But we are ready to battle, I can tell you that.”
“It’s a great time, man. It’s the central theme of the program and it’s why I like having competition right at the front, right at the outset. It’s going to be tough. Guys have to earn their spot. … I can’t wait for that part of our game to come to life. It’s going to make a difference in the way that we (pass) rush, the style that we play. We are probably going to play some more man-to-man knowing that we have some ability to do that.”
Power Ratings are a prime tool in football handicapping, but understanding the nuances behind each team’s strengths and weaknesses is every bit as essential. There is a makeover taking place and a different style of football being brought forward in Atlanta, and those that understand the style component may be a step ahead of the rest of the marketplace.
Item: And about that jukebox...
And how about something for "group participation" as NFL 2016 approaches. You can be damn sure that if the Atlanta defense shows well early it will be a cheap excuse for me to load up "Quinn the Eskimo" in the jukebox. But now the question - who did it best? Finding a good version by Bob Dylan will not be easy because live versions from Dylan are just universally not very good. The Dead? Phish? Manfred Mann? Amy Winehouse? The Hollies? There is a lot out there, so this is your chance to contribute to the process.
I will post a sentimental opener here for some background enjoyment as the possibilities get pondered -
Item: High drama in Wrigley
A White Sox/Cubs matchup rarely needs any added jolt of drama to turn into a passion play but there is particular intrigue tonight, as Chris Sale makes his return to the mound. One aspect can be solved pretty quickly – while there is speculation about how his teammates will respond to him, I do not believe there is any question that they will have his back.
"When I saw that there was something in the way of that 100 percent winning mentality, I had an issue. I tried to bring it up and say, 'Hey listen, these are my thoughts and concerns,' and they got pushed away because of the business deal that was set in place. I'll never understand why we need to do something on the business side on the field that might impede us winning a game. [The '76 uniforms] are uncomfortable and unorthodox. I didn't want to go out there and not be at the top of my game in every aspect that I need to be in. Not only that, but I didn't want anything to alter my mechanics. ... There's a lot of different things that went into it. Looking bad had absolutely zero to do with it. Nothing."
That is how Sale explained his rather bizarre actions of last weekend, and I believe the rest of the White Sox have accepted that as a team leader doing something for the team. No issue there. But how effective is he going to be? This is a bigger concern this season than it might have been in the past.
This will only be the second start for Sale in 20 days. At another time I might suggest that a hard-thrower has the chance to come up fresh, and perhaps ramp it up and be even more dominating. But Sale changed his game dramatically this season, part of that due to a dramatically improved defense behind from (from #27 to #10 in PADE, and #30 to #19 on the Fangraphs charts). In going from 11.8 K/9 to 8.7, and from 14.6 SWS% to 10.6, there was intent, the confidence that he could pitch to contact with this defense and save wear on his arm. His average fast-ball has declined from 94.5 in 2015 to 93.2 this season not because there is something wrong physically, but out of that intent.
Hence why such a difficult case study here. Sale will be fresh, and will bring a strong competitive drive, but what about his rhythm? He has remained under 2.0 BB/9 for the second straight season by hitting the right places in the strike zone. Is that command going to be there?
The markets have made a statement, running an opener of -119 up to -135 before there was a trickle of buy back. Where I will be watching most closely is today’s weather, the early forecasts of a wind blowing in forcing the Total to 6.5 Over -125. That may be low for this setting, because while the wind may indeed be in, this is not April, when a wind in from the lake usually means a cold and miserable day for the hitters – the first pitch tonight will be at a pleasant 75.
I bring the Total up because there are also serious questions about John Lackey’s fuel gauge at the moment. Lackey came out fresh and with a lot of pop this season, his numbers literally running the opposite of Sale’s in the strikeout categories, going from 7.2 K/9 in 2015 to 9.2, and from 9.4 to 11.6 in SWS%. There was indeed a lot of adrenaline flowing early, but may that be running out as the innings add up (130.2 already) -
1st 13 starts: 7-2 / 2.66
Last 7 starts: 0-5 / 6.12
It is a fascinating ball game, and if the wind is not too dominating, there may be a flutter taken at a First Half Over if the price point holds, with a 3.5 asking for both Sale and Lackey to be on their game, which may not be in the cards for this setting.
In the Sights…
10 days ago there as a focus topic here on Aaron Nola, and how the quality of his pitches have been so much better than the Baseball outcomes. That continued in his last outing, when he had good stuff but again struggled to make good pitches with runners on base in the 5th inning at Pittsburgh. That was not quite the “Buy Signal” that I was looking for in terms of Nola’s confidence, but it did work from another direction – the way others view him. So with the early Thursday marketplace having dropped the Phillies to as low as -114 (CRIS and clones) it is time to get on board the Nola express, with #905 Philadelphia (7:10 Eastern), this one holding value to -125.
Nola’s 5-9/4.75 comes despite simply superb numbers across some of the most important categories – a 9.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 54.9 GB% gets you into All Star games. But BABIP (.328) and LOB% (59.2) have been enemies, some of that Baseball randomness, but admittedly also Nola not showing maturity with runners on base. I believe that maturity will develop, to go along with his great stuff. So to set the stage for tonight, let’s look at the advanced pitching metrics to compare the two starters -
FIP xFIP SIERA
Nola 3.06 2.99 3.21
Wisler 4.72 4.83 4.62
The gap is rather substantial. Then we add the fact that the Phillies bring a fresh end-game bullpen, while Cabrera/Withrow/Johnson have all worked back-to-back nights for the Braves, plus the travel back from Minnesota, losing a time zone hour of recuperation in the process. And in terms of home field advantage there just isn’t any – Philadelphia has played at the same clip (23-28 vs. 23-29) whether Home or Away, while Atlanta’s wretched 14-36 on this field brings little confidence to the team. Note that the particular setting also matters – the Phillies were already in Atlanta last night when the Braves were still on the field against the Twins, so it is an easier transition for a road team in the first game of a new series than usual.
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