Point Blank – April 15
NBA Playoffs – This Time it's For Real…Tennessee may have pulled off a Titanic coup (it is not too early to be thinking NFL, especially with Week #1 on the board)…
It should be no secret to long-term readers that the NBA Playoffs are among my favorite handicapping opportunities of the entire sports betting calendar – the battle of bettor vs. oddsmaker vs. marketplace gets reduced to arguably its purest form. So let’s step back and set the stage for a cycle ahead, as it becomes time once again for “The Game Inside the Game”.
With a long read today, and with a clear need for some separation between the often hideous silliness of the NBA regular season and the intensity to be found between now and the final elimination game, time for some musical background. Some of my all-time favorite shows were those benefits done at the Asbury Park Convention Center over the course of several Decembers around the turn of the century, Bruce Springsteen leading a cast of characters that included Sam Moore, Southside Johnny, Elvis Costello, Jon Bon Jovi and a host of others, with the Max Weinberg 7 serving as the house band to bring it all together. So for the appropriate energy surge that comes with the opening tipoff for Pacers/Raptors on Saturday afternoon, we let that gang tell us that “This Time it’s for Real”, this version from 2003 -
So here is the gist. The regular season is filled with attempts to find value across a broad spectrum of potential edges, from statistics to trends to scheduling dynamics to injuries to the various team vs. team matchups. Varying market elements invest across those approaches, the pointspreads becoming a bubbling cauldron of that action. Now it is different. In an individual series each game is laid out in front of the oddsmakers and the rest of the marketplace, and it comes down to who can best interpret the flow of events. In some ways it is handicapping in its purest form – here is a game, everyone take a look at it, and whomever can read it the best has the dge going forward.
As such, the narratives will change here. It is going to be much more about player vs. player and coach vs. coach as we go inside of the matchups, and there may be some unique opportunities ahead. I do not believe anyone is good enough to beat the Warriors, not only on the merits of the matchups but the fact that when they get to Western Conference Finals, and then the NBA Finals, they are going to be fresher than opponents who will have had a tougher ride to get there. But on a series-by-series, and game-by-game basis, there are going to be many windows of opportunity opening. Let’s set the stage by delving into some of the key storylines for the opening round, going in rotation order –
Indiana/Toronto – For as dynamic as Kyle Lowry has been this season, elevating from career journeyman to flat-out star, note that he has never won a playoff series as a starting PG across his 10 NBA seasons, and his teams have gone 3-8 SU and 2-8-1 ATS when he has been the starting PG. Does that lack of post-season success weigh on his psyche? And if it weighs on him, does that impact the entire team, since they rely on his direction for so much?
Houston/Golden State – One of the notions I speculated on here a short while ago was that while many of the Houston veterans might have preferred to not take place in what will be a one-sided series, James Harden might have relished the chance to go head-to-head with Steph Curry, a chance for him to show his place among the NBA’s elite. But could this boil down into Harden working more to win that one-on-one battle than to do the things to lead this team to winning a game?
Boston/Atlanta – At the start, I will be watching for some continuing themes from recent takes here. The Celtics defense fell way down after the All Star break, until that remarkable turnaround in the second half vs. Miami on Wednesday. Was that a sign that they have found themselves, or just a one-off with their backs to the wall? Meanwhile the Hawks were the best defense in the league post-Break, and by a rather significant margin – their 96.8 PP100 was far ahead of San Antonio’s 99.3, which rated #2.
Dallas/Oklahoma City – For all of the natural attention of the explosive abilities of the Westbrook/Durant duo, the Thunder had a historically strong year on the boards, grabbing 54.7 percent of all available rebounds. For some perspective, #2 Detroit was only at 52.1. Where did the Mavericks rate? How about #26. Do they have any hope of competing on the boards in this matchup?
Detroit/Cleveland – Some will inevitably talk about this being the “second go-round” at playoff time for the James-Irving-Love triangle, but is that really the case? The Cavaliers were in 20 post-season games last spring and Love was only on the court twice, the second game for just 6:38, while Irving missed five of the six games against the Warriors in the Finals. And as for coaching experience, Stan Van Gundy has been in 87 playoff games, while this will naturally be Tyronn Lue’s first.
Charlotte/Miami – On the theme of playoff experience, consider what it can mean here – Dwyane Wade has 152 career playoff starts, the entire Hornets roster has 123. The opener on Sunday will be the 100th playoff game for Erik Spoelstra, and the first for Steve Clifford.
Memphis/San Antonio – When there is talk about juggling for playoff seedings, here is what it can mean – a #2 vs. #7 matchup has produced a higher series favorite (Spurs at -11000) than a #1 vs. #8 in the same conference (Warriors at -9000), the depleted Grizzlies going 1-10 down the stretch. But because those failures have been so visible it leads to these exorbitant prices. With OKC up next, and then Golden State if the Thunder have been conquered, does Gregg Popovich have any interest at all in getting near this kind of pointspread range (-15.5 for the opener), or may he use this mismatch as a way to protect his rotation for the bigger battles ahead, content to merely grind away and get the “W”?
Portland/LA Clippers – The Clippers need Blake Griffin to be in shape if they are to have any chance beyond this series, but might his conditioning be a factor that could potentially trip them up here? Griffin only played 123 minutes across five games since returning, shooting just 40 percent from the field, and note that he has not played a minute anywhere other than the Staples Center since December 19. The best way to win this series might be to limit his minutes, sine they could disrupt the chemistry, but that is not the best way to build up for the second round. Doc Rivers may have some juggling to do here.
Those are some starting points to sort through, now let’s let the fun begin. Game #1 offerings that are worthy of being “In the Sights…” will be attached on game day. But in the meantime, another professional sport has made some news over the past two days…
And now for an NFL interlude…
I did a double-take when I first saw the Rams/Titans trade, not believing that what I read was accurate, and set is aside whole sorting through some MLB and NBA offerings. But upon further review it was, and it is not easy to grasp. Let’s chart it out -
Titans receive from Rams:
1st round pick (15 overall)
2nd round pick (43)
2nd round pick (45)
3rd round pick (76)
1st round pick in 2017
3rd round pick in 2017
Rams receive from Titans:
1st round pick (1 overall)
4th round pick (113)
6th round pick (177)
The Rams paid the kind of premium one would have expected for Andrew Luck/Jameis Winston/Marcus Mariota, almost assuredly to draft a QB, but the funny thing is that no one can point a direct finger as to whether it will be Carson Wentz of Jared Goff. I think both are good prospects, not great ones, and nowhere near the price that was paid (there is a reasonable chance that the lesser of the two might have been available to the Rams at #15 anyway).
Meanwhile for Tennessee it was a major score. The Titans already have their QB of the future in place, and can now fill out the supporting cast pretty well over the next two drafts. There was not much downside for them, with no particular candidate for the #1 slot jumping out all that much for their immediate needs. This was well-played on their end.
And some early food for thought…
So that you can get your imaginations active, the Week #1 openers are up at the Westgate in Las Vegas. Home teams in CAPS –
DENVER 3 43.5 Carolina
ATLANTA 3.5 48 Tampa Bay
Minnesota 3 42.5 TENNESSEE
PHILADELPHIA 7.5 46 Cleveland
NY JETS Pck 43.5 Cincinnati
NEW ORLEANS 1.5 51 Oakland
KANSAS CITY 7.5 43.5 San Diego
BALTIMORE 3 43.5 Buffalo
HOUSTON 4.5 45.5 Chicago
Green Bay 3.5 48 JACKSONVILLE
SEATTLE 7.5 45.5 Miami
DALLAS 5.5 49.5 NY Giants
INDIANAPOLIS 5.5 49.5 Detroit
ARIZONA Pck 51 New England
Pittsburgh 2.5 51 WASHINGTON
Los Angeles 2.5 47 SAN FRANCISCO
Fascinating to note that Carolina as -4.5 over Denver on a neutral in the Super Bowl, with Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler on the Bronco roster, and now the teams are being rated even on a neutral. Of couse it may be a while before we know who the Denver starting QB will be for that one.
In the Sights…
It is not all that unusual for Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw to get slotted into head-to-head showdowns – when you are the #1 guy in the rotation, and your teams annually clash a few times early in the schedule, that happens. This will be the sixth time they have matched up since the beginning of last season, and note that despite the Dodgers being favored each time it has been a 3-2 run for the Giants, with one of the Los Angeles wins coming in extra innings, last Saturday by the Bay. Yet despite the fact that Bumgarner has more than held his own in these encounters, and has the better offense and bullpen behind him tonight, the markets took a surge to the Dodgers this morning. In particular that rising tide has opened up one particular door, and that leads to #911 San Francisco Run Line (10:10 Eastern), which is available for as low as -145 in the morning trading, and is a value at -160 or less.
Taking +1.5 with Bumgarner in those five hookups vs. Kershaw would have brought a 4-1 return, and note that in all starts behind their ace the last 2+ seasons the Giants would be 56-17 with a +1.5 attached. He can again check a Dodger offense that has been held to three runs or less in half of their 10 outings, and were down 2-0 into the bottom of the seventh last night before finally breaking through against the Arizona middle relief corps.
Meanwhile the Giants have been raking, and it was not just about getting a series in Coors Field – they out-scored the Dodgers 26-17 in that series last weekend. Naturally nothing will come easily against Kershaw, but on a quick second look they can at least make him work, and that could open some doors later against a bullpen that has been vulnerable, and may not have Kenley Jansen tonight (it was a real surprise to see Dave Roberts go to him with a three-run lead last night, after Jansen had worked multiple innings on Wednesday, but perhaps that is an indication of the lack of confidence in the others in that ‘pen).
In the Sights, MLB Saturday…
The ball was carrying well on a warm April evening in St. Louis, with seven home runs hit last night, and it will be near the mid-70’s for first pitch this afternoon. That makes this Total too low for the various circumstances in play, and leads to #952 Cardinals/Reds Over (2:15 Eastern) with “7” commonly available in the marketplace, including some at low vig.
Adam Wainwright carries a big reputation, but is nowhere near his past self right now. His Spring Training numbers were alarming, but there was not a huge cause for concern because he was trying to work his way back into shape. Perhaps they should have been alarms going off – his numbers are terrible across the board after two outings for real vs. the Pirates and Braves, with career-worst rates in K/9, BB/9, GB% and SWS%. In other words, this was not baseball’s geometry doing him in, and he is well aware of that - "I'm so far from where I can be and where I want to be. It's very, very frustrating. I'm so upset about the way the ball is coming out right now. … Fact of the matter is, I'm struggling right now. There's no other way to put it." He may come around, but there is little reason off of his showings between Spring Training and those last two starts that indicate it can happen via a snap of the fingers.
Meanwhile Brandon Finnegan may also be over-priced off of his last outing, when he carried a no-hitter deep into the night at Wrigley, but part of his success that night was being effectively wild, with five BB, and only 58.6 percent of his pitches finding the strike zone. That 111-pitch workload may have been more than he was built up for, and now he also faces the confidence issues of dealing with a lineup that hit three home runs against him in five IP here last September, in a 10-2 Cardinals rout. Finnegan may only be a six inning guy against a patient lineup, and that brings the rocky Cincinnati middle relief squarely into play, a group that will be without three cogs because of last night’s heavy workloads.
The markets are calling for a pitchers duel that does not shape up that way, and by merely getting each team to 3 runs there is no way of losing this ticket, which is more than fair value for this setting.
In the Sights, Sunday NBA…
The waiting has paid off on this one, with #517 Detroit (3:05 Eastern) now becoming available at +11.5, and that is enough to get in play against a favorite that I do not believe is all that dominating, and get behind what will be a loose and aggressive underdog that will not be overmatched in terms of size, athleticism or depth.
As noted in the lead column, this is not really the second go-round for James/Love/Irving in the playoffs, and in truth when those three have been on the court together they have not shown any particular growth from last season, with the Tyronn Lue period possibly even taking them back a step. As noted above, Stan Van Gundy has plenty of experience at this time of the NBA calendar, he has the best big man in Andre Drummond, and Reggie Jackson has played nearly twice as many playoff minutes as counterpart Irving at the point. The Pistons may not threaten to win the game, but I do not expect them to lose contact, and this is one large underdog that can play with confidence in their first round matchup – in the only meeting between these teams with the playoff starting lineups intact (after Detroit had acquired Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris), they pulled a 96-88 upset here back on February 22.
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