Point Blank – April 4
A Final Night in Houston (let’s let Randy Bachman ask the proper question)…The first MLB swings should be about making good contact, not hitting home runs (and we can do that in San Diego this afternoon)…
There wasn’t much late-game mystery to the NCAA semi-finals on Saturday except for those that were involved with the Totals, and there was something to see there – the discussions all week about how much that venue could impact shot-making lowered the tariffs to the point at which you could have cashed tickets on both Overs at tipoff. And that is despite the fact that the shooting once again was not good, even counting Villanova’s brilliant outing.
Today we shift gears a bit, saving the NBA review for tomorrow, since that sport fortunately takes tonight off, “fortunately” the proper word because the final week of the regular season in that sport will once again bring the usual shenanigans. The focus goes to its proper place, tonight in Houston, and also to help see the stage for a leisurely day of baseball watching ahead.
We begin the day by going to the jukebox again because I know what the prime question is going to be. So let’s let Randy Bachman sing it, and the gang play, a late-career version of “Let it Ride” from Bachman & Turner in 2010 -
Would you Let it Ride, indeed…
Item: A well-Heeled ticket should just stay in play
This question has already come up in thread since the NCAA tournament opened, and it dates back to a January column that proposed – It is time to buy North Carolina futures, calling anything better than 7-1 at that time a good value. As turns out the timing was not brilliant, with the Tar Heels stumbling a bit to create even better prices, but as the schedule played out the pieces did begin to come together, along with a fortuitous tourney flow that did not require them to have to face Michigan State or Virginia. So for the sake of discussion, just what does one do if they begin the day with a North Carolina ticket in pocket?
My plan is to be a Tar Heel fan. Yes, I know the temptations that will be felt when there is a large ticket in the pocket, and the chance to “hedge” (a word I despite, as many of you would know by now) against it. The issue is that based on the way that I see the matchup, the Villanova side of the equation does not offer enough value, and may instead only mean investing in a ticket with a negative expectation.
To get down to brass tacks, had I not had any Future’s investment tonight, my ratings would show North Carolina as a play at -1. As such, buying into Jay Wright’s team would only mean creating a modicum of short-term creature comfort, but not the kind of math that benefits the portfolio in the long run. So let’s proceed to the matchup issues that lead to that conclusion.
Item: Villanova has good shooters, not great ones.
This was brought up as a talking points heading into the Oklahoma game on Saturday, and while the Wildcats put on a stunning display of all-around basketball (do not neglect the dozen steals they came up with), the shooting that you saw on Saturday is not necessarily what you should expect here. Even with that brilliant showing vs. Oklahoma from long range they were only #117 in the nation beyond the arc at 35.9 percent this season, yet despite that still fired away often, with 43 percent of all shots being 3’s, a ratio that rated #29. There was a bit of a tactical basketball imbalance in that.
The Villanova offense has had some monster games in this tourney, but keeping up the shooting may be stretching a pendulum too far, especially at this venue, and note that despite both games playing Over to the closing line on Saturday, the shooting was again nothing special –
Saturday “shooting” in Houston:
3-pointers 29-87 (33%)
Free Throws 34-53 (63%)
Note that what I classify as “shooting” does not incorporate 2-point attempts, because that would require a full sort to eliminate layups and dunks. And that is also a significant part of this matchup…
Item: North Carolina’s “First Shot” offense, redux
This is another issue that is not new to regular readers, but is worth some review. The Tar Heels rate #1 in the nation in offensive efficiency despite running an offense that was not anything special for most of the season, though they have stepped it up down the stretch. It wasn’t that their “offense” was so good, but rather than in rating #3 in the nation in offensive rebounding, grabbing 40.3 percent of their own misses, that deep, athletic and active front line was often able to get to the ball, and finish with easy opportunities around the rim. Those layups and dunks get registered as the offense having run a play, which helps to better explain that #1 overall rating, though there is an additional factor on that front coming up. In the last two tourney wins the Tar Heels actually grabbed more offensive rebounds (28), than Notre Dame and Syracuse had off of the defensive boards (24).
Some of that, of course, was the luck of the draw – both the Fighting Irish and the Orangemen were vulnerable off of the defensive glass. But because of a lack of size, this is not a Villanova strength either – the Wildcats were #134 in the nation at clearing the defensive glass, and only #209 at getting to their own misses. They are going to need a big game from Daniel Ochefu, and possibly more minutes from Mikal Bridges and Darryl Reynolds than per usual. If you are going to be betting In-Running, early foul trouble for Ochefu is something to make a primary focus – there just is not much behind him. Yet despite what might seem be to a rather obvious notion of the Carolina big men controlling play, that is ultimately not where I see this one being won…
Item: The Tar Heel guards won’t be bothered by pressure
The matchup I believe is the most important is in the backcourt. The Villanova key this season has been a group of tenacious veteran guards that were able to consistently disrupt opposing offenses, with their experience allowing Wright all sorts of chalkboard flexibility. In holding both Kansas and Oklahoma to less than 60 points over the last two games that defensive tenacity set the tone. But one of the things that Roy Williams gambled with that backfired a bit in the early part of the season – playing two natural point guards together in the starting lineup – has finally taken hold.
In putting Joel Berry alongside Marcus Paige, Williams was looking for a way to make his team immune to pressure defenses, while also of the belief that Paige shot the ball so well last season that he could be effective as a #2 guard. That turned out to not be the case in one regard, with Paige’s shot suffering as he handled the ball less and lost some game-feel, but in another it was a significant success – the Tar Heels only turned the ball over on 15.3 percent of their possessions, #21 in the nation. That was a considerable improvement from last season, when they were #109 while turning it over at 18.2 percent. It is the final piece to the puzzle of how you get to be the #1 offense – make sure that you get shots on most of your possessions, then go grab the rebounds when they are missed.
The way that it adds up to me is that anyone with a North Carolina ticket just rides it out, with those various matchup components making it a difficult ride for Villanova. Are the Wildcats capable? Absolutely. They have the mental toughness and the tenacity of a championship team, even if there is not a stock of NBA-talent on hand. Will you feel like it was an opportunity wasted if you do not attempt to “hedge” anything? Probably, even though you shouldn’t. The point that will repeatedly be made here is that any “hedge” that is not a positive expectation wager only lowers your long-term profitability.
Just think of it this way – imagine you were offered that same Future’s value this morning on North Carolina, and then consider how much you would bet. The amount is likely much more than you initial purchase. So you “Let it Ride”.
Item: Then on to the Diamonds
My MLB portfolio will always begin slowly, not only looking for the starting pitchers to get into their rhythms, but also realizing that for the first couple of games the bullpen aces can be a question mark – for many of them it will have been several days since their last game appearance (Mark Melancon labored to 25 pitches, and Wade Davis to 26, before they could get the last outs yesterday).
But there is one extremely tangible about there to work with – market perceptions. There will be a desire to get into play against some of them, and that is why Eric Strasser, better known here as Palmtree, and I will be taking the occasional flutters in the early days (he will be more aggressive than I am, diligently spending the off-season preparing for this cycle).
For now, consider these MLB investments to be about 40 percent of a full ticket, with the amount to be raised after a few series have been played, and the markets are offering one today that I believe is worthy of stepping into the batter’s box and taking a swing, even if it is aimed more to drive the ball the other way for a base hit, rather than Home Run Derby…
In the Sights, MLB…
One of the items that I focused on as the lead in a column last Wednesday, The Fantasy and Reality of Power Pitching, is that the oddsmakers will be doing what they can to balance out the rush to back the prime pitchers in the current marketplace. I believe we see that with Clayton Kershaw, already being price high, and now gradually inching towards -200 this afternoon against the Padres, and that opens the door for intriguing value with #958 San Diego Run Line (4:05 Eastern), which is available at even money at Pinnacle, and is fair game up to -110.
Needless to say, +1.5 is a significant portion of the scoring expectation when the Total is sitting at 6 (there are still some 5.5’s out there), and to buy that run to cheaply is a tribute to how much respect Kershaw commands. But there was something you may have also noticed from last Wednesday’s table – Tyson Ross finishing #8 in K/9 in 2015. Ross just happened to finish #3 in GB% as well, putting him in rather elite company – he and Jake Arrieta were the only starters to finish in the Top 10 in each of those key categories. It was not a great path to success for Ross because the Padres did not back him well, but note that with +1.5 attached, it would have been a 23-10 run across his 33 starts.
An issue for Ross is his slow delivery from the set position, which makes it easy for opposing base-runners – only Jon Lester allowed more steals. But the Dodgers do not have the tools to take advantage of that, projecting around pick’em to finish among the bottom five teams in steals this season, so that weakness gets negated. The Padres will indeed struggle vs. Kershaw, but Ross is more than capable of keeping the Los Angeles offense in check, which should turn this game into a closely contested affair to the final pitch.
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