Point Blank – March 12
Sorting through the Chaos and the Daylight (and may you all be a "Lucky Man" today)...
One of the things that I believe has been a significant part of my survival across this unique endeavor has been becoming a genuine fan of the sports involved. By being such it has provided a myriad of handicapping insights over time, but at the end of most days there is also a secondary factor of pure enjoyment that serves as a bankroll builder because of the way that it touches the imagination.
Those thoughts come to mind after a rather fascinating Friday across the Conference Tournament landscape, one filled with plot twists and roller-coaster endings; a reminder of how difficult those currents can be to navigate because the edges are often so slim, but also the pageantry that sports can bring. So for a little musical background as Saturday approaches, on a day in which it is proper to pay tribute to Keith Emerson (1944-2016), how about ELP with “Lucky Man” from their late career reunion. This is to those that emerged victorious on the court, and for those of us fortunate enough to be able have a front row seat for the parade -
Now on to Saturday…
Item: Is Connecticut an automatic play against today?
No. Yes, a draining four-OT affair, including the closing to the third extra period being as good as any in the history of the sport, can tax a team physically and mentally. But be careful with it. It was only the tourney opener for the Huskies, and it was an afternoon game, which means getting to bed around the same time as usual, perhaps even earlier under the circumstances, and today’s tipoff vs. Temple is not until 3 PM Eastern. Through the years I have seen the recovery from extended afternoon games to be much easier for the athletes than those night sessions.
There is also a different psychological aspect to this one. Perhaps the greatest example ever of overcoming fatigue in a conference tourney was that stunning Connecticut run to win the Big East tournament in 2011, the Huskies managing to win five games in five days, the last three as underdogs, and they captured the title vs. Louisville after having to go into O.T. the night before vs. Syracuse. Kevin Ollie just happened to be an assistant under Jim Calhoun with that team, and it makes it even easier to sell the message to the players for this one, a message that we can expect to get absorbed because I doubt there is a single player on the roster that is not already familiar with that run – it may well have been why many of them chose to go to UConn.
But the markets are not going to see it that way, with this likely the most over-handicapped notion on the board, and the Temple money has already been quick to show, with -3 now down to -2 and threatening to go to -1.5. Compare that to the KenPom projection of Connecticut -5, and the Jeff Sagarin -6.2, and you see how much adjustment there now is off of the base power rating. Yes, the Owls did sweep the regular season matchups in a pair of closely-contested games (63-58 at home and 55-53 on the road), but also note where those lines were, the Huskies -10 at home, and -5 at Temple in the rematch. There has been a lot of tinkering with this one, to the point at which any more lowering of the tariff and I may end up having some Connecticut in pocket, the Owls not playing the kind of pace, nor having the depth, to make fatigue much of a factor (even in what should have been an easy ride vs. South Florida yesterday Josh Brown played the full 40 minutes and Quenton DeCosey 38).
Item: Some of these settings will sound like home games, but what is that really worth?
It is going to sound close to Home Court advantages for Kentucky in Nashville today, and for Kansas at Kansas City. Those programs have huge fan bases, and are so accustomed to getting deep into their conference tournaments that they know the drill, quickly finding ways to gobble up the available tickets from teams that have been eliminated. But while that makes for a better atmosphere (and unfortunately for Kansas/West Virginia there will be the continued annoyance of those ESPN crowd microphones throwing the sound out of balance, making it more difficult to hear the announcers, a terrible idea that should have been dropped the morning after the first time they was used), it is not a huge handicapping factor.
So much of the “home court advantage” is misunderstood, bringing notions of visiting teams struggling because they are unnerved by the crowds. In truth the factoring should be considered more of a “road team disadvantage”, especially in college basketball, where most trips mean young players getting on a bus, to get on a plane, to get on another bus, and then sleep in an unfamiliar hotel and eat at unfamiliar restaurants. The crowd is only a small part of the equation, though it is generally not perceived that way. I give Kansas a half point today, and nothing for Kentucky until Sunday, should the Wildcats still be alive, when they will own most of that arena. But if they are playing on Sunday, it may not be great basketball that the fans dressed in blue will be watching…
Item: Sunday Crummy Sunday?
Sunday on conference tournament week often provides some of the worst basketball, despite bringing the best teams. Many times the teams that are playing on this day already know their ticket is punched to the Big Dance (that is changing now with the Sun Belt moving to Sunday), which takes some spark away, but a contributing factor is that the games simply tip off too early in the day, not giving the players enough time to recuperate from their Saturday wins.
This season it may get even worse, with Daylight Savings Time falling in the mix. That is going to take an hour away from the players to physically and mentally regenerate, as well as time the coaches could have used for tweaking game plans. Should these tipoff times have been moved back an hour to accommodate the time change? Yes, but there was no chance of that happening. The committee needs to have the results in early enough to finish the brackets on their usual schedule, and that schedule will not change – as long as CBS has the selection show, and that show needs to get out of the way for 60 Minutes at 7 PM on the East Coast, the current cycle will continue on into the future. But be aware of that hour in your post-mortems, as you tweak the ratings for the Saturday winners.
In the Sights, NCAA I…
You want to build a tough team to handle the grind of three games in three days, and play hard in an intense atmosphere? How about going out and getting a couple of key cogs from Brooklyn (Isaiah Whitehead and Khadeen Carrington), one from the Bronx (Des Rodriguez), one from Newark (Ismael Sanogo), one that was born in the Dominican Republic but went to a local Jersey prep school (Angel Delgado), and a UMass transfer from Plainfield, New Jersey (Derrick Gordon). That is the make-up for #743 Seton Hall (5:30 Eastern), a young team making huge strikes as this season has progressed, and a tenacious group that is capable of taking Villanova to the final possession this evening before a Big East champion is crowned. You can easily find +6.5 this morning, but I believe there may be a shot at a +7.
The Pirates were physically ready back in January, when they lost close games to Villanova and Xavier over the course of four days, falling 72-71 to the Wildcats in a game that was within their grasp to the buzzer, but they were mentally ready to seize it. Kevin Willard’s comments afterwards set the stage – “We will learn from the things we didn’t to well, especially towards the end of the game.”
And learn they have. Fast forward to a month later when the rematches began and Willard’s team has now beaten Xavier twice over the past two weeks, leading by 19 in the second half at home and then by 15 in the second half last night before a late flurry by the Musketeers created a misleading final scoreboard. The end-game confidence has developed, as has the chemistry across the board, and that makes this a scrap to the buzzer, with the outright upset not coming as a shock (taking a small pinch of +250 as part of the ticket is not a bad idea).
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA II…
Let’s put another one into play as a line I did not expect to hold up is available, and go to the Mountain West for #746 San Diego State/Fresno State Under (6:00 Eastern), a game worth exploring because of the long-term handicapping implications of the setting. You can find 127.5, and a few Nevada properties are at 128.
This is all about television, and the Mountain West not having a lot of clout. It is a basketball absurdity to force this game out at 3 PM Pacific time, instead of at night, but the conference is relegated to CBS, and that network is not going to show college basketball in prime time on a Saturday night. As such the turnaround time is a major problem for the teams, especially Fresno State in this instance, with the Bulldogs likely not getting out of the Thomas and Mack Center until after midnight following their win over Colorado State in the semi-finals.
So how have these games played out? There is a consistency because of San Diego State’s involvement. This will be the seventh time in the last eight seasons the Aztecs have made it to this title game, and look at the last seven, six involving Steve Fisher's team – a clean 7-0 to the Under in which the games fell 114.5 short of the market perceptions, a significant 16.4 per game.
Does that change today? The setting hasn’t, nor do the particular matchups in play call for it – these teams got caught up in regular season grinders that played to 114 and 115 in regulation, and the tired legs will not change that. With both teams having enough size around the basket to prevent anything easy inside it will be mean a lot of perimeter shots being taken late in the clock, and that sets up a lethargic pace in Las Vegas yet one more time.
In the Sights, NBA…
The Thunder are not currying much favor these days, and losing outright at home to Minnesota will certainly do nothing to alter their esteem level in the eyes of the marketplace. But I believe that just serves to place tonight’s line in the wrong place, and that puts #713 Oklahoma City (8:35 Eastern) into play, with a generous +8.5 available.
The Thunder have played at Golden State twice over the past month, and closed at +7.5 each time. Now the marketplace is saying that the Spurs are a point better than the Warriors, but they aren’t. Yes, overall point differential indicates they may be, but it has been noted here several times how San Antonio has compiled those numbers – through outstanding depth and marvelous basketball sophistication, the Spurs have simply man-handled the NBA’s weaker teams. But what happens when it is time to step up?
San Antonio is one of six teams that have won at a 65 percent clip or better. The Spurs have played seven games against the other five, going 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS, falling 72.5 points short of the market expectations in the process. The only ATS success came by a half point. The Thunder may not have the end-game to be able to beat this class outright, but I will put them in the hunt to the final possessions, and at what is being offered that is all that it takes to cash in this one.
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