Point Blank – February 19
On “One-and-Done” and Understanding the Warriors…Blazing a trail the right way in Portland…On NCAA fatigue and individual players (in particular a couple of damn good ones)…Expect the Jazz to hit some sour notes…
In yesterday’s lead topic there was a discussion on putting the San Antonio season into perspective, the Spurs going to the All Star break with a historically strong point differential, but one potentially putting them in the wrong place in terms of NBA history. I believe what they have done is telling us as much about the rest of the league as their own merits, and I also believe that you cannot have that conversation without also bringing Golden State into play.
One of the key points noted on Thursday was that the Spurts and Warriors are the league’s two smartest teams, and it is in playing basketball with high degrees of sophistication that they have separated themselves from the pack. There are nights that the Golden State ball movement is simply sublime, producing sequences in which open shots are passed up to get the ball to a teammate that is even more open, the opposing defense an exercise in futility trying to keep up. Some of this comes from talent, of course, with three Warriors deservedly in the All Star game, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson, plus that outstanding depth. Let’s continue on the base theme by noting something awfully important about those All Stars -
NCAA Seasons Games
Curry 3 104
Green 4 145
Thompson 3 98
That is a lot of experience to bring to your first NBA training camp, and it is in that core having had the experience of learning the game at that level that has made so much of what they do on the court possible.
Yet for as good as this team is, and the level they are capable of reaching (I would make them the favorites to topple the all-time win record this season), there is some awkwardness in terms of comparing them to great teams of the past. It is because their current record is also a product of this particular era. Some of that has already been discussed, that tremendous intricacy in their game flow, which can overwhelm many teams in an NBA lacking in floor savvy. But there is also the size issue.
Not only is the action a bit more frenetic these days, it is also one of those windows in which there are a dearth of good post players around, cycles that will occasionally happen. The Warriors are able to succeed with “small ball” largely because they have a cast that is good at it, but in terms of a historical power rating, there has to be an acknowledgment that this is also a point in time in which small ball works.
There will be a lot more to come on this theme over the months ahead, as Golden State makes a run that will statistically challenge the all-time great teams, and it will lead to some deeper discussion that will provide plenty of food for thought. For now it is time for the Warriors to resume their 2016 run, and tonight brings an interesting challenge.
Item: Is Portland blazing a trail the right way?
In the post-Aldridge era there was not a lot expected from Portland, but the Trail Blazers went on a 8-1 SU and ATS surge prior to the All Star break to get to .500 for the season, and in possession of the #7 spot in the Western Conference. The roster may not look like it brings a lot of upside, but there is some chemistry developing, and to understand it, let’s take the table used for Golden State and apply it to the staring back-court of Damian Lillard and C. J. McConnell –
NCAA Seasons Games
Lillard 4 104
McCollum 4 111
It is rare in the NBA these days to have starting guards that bring that kind of college experience, and I believe it has made a difference in terms of the way that have developed as a unit. And while Mason Plumlee does not exactly dazzle with the numbers he puts up, when he is inserted as a starter it brings three players with four full seasons, and over 100 college games (Plumlee played in 141 at Duke) in the same grouping. I believe that is part of why this team has been able to come together the way they have. There may not be a high ceiling because of the limited talent, but there is a work ethic that should have them to continue to grind away in a fashion the marketplace may not fully appreciate.
Item: On NCAA individual player fatigue
A prime reason why many “One-and-Done” players struggle to adapt to the NBA is also the fact that for young men that schedule is an awfully long grind. Even at the NCAA ranks it can be. There have been several discussions over recent weeks about how teams can lose a little steam down the stretch because of either their make-up or their schedule draw, and the serious handicapper should also be focusing on key individual players as well.
A situation that comes to mind both from a team and player standpoint is Oklahoma and Buddy Hield. Not only have the Sooners played one of the nation’s most difficult schedules (#3 Pomeroy/#4 Sagarin), but it has also included two trips to Hawaii, which added something to the fatigue layer. Now a team that was once #1 in the nation no longer has a chance to even win the Big 12 regular season crown, and you can see some of that through the recent shooting numbers of Hield, who has played at least 37 minutes in 12 of the last 16 Oklahoma games –
Hield 3-point shooting
First 20 Games: 87-156 55.8%
Last 5 Games: 17-47 36.2%
Fatigue has also been noticeable for another of the nation’s top players, Melo Trimble of Maryland. Over his last three Big 10 games he has shot a staggering 6-37 from the field, including 1-10 from 3-point range. The Terrapins managed to rally from behind to beat Purdue in the first of that trio, but in their last two lost outright to Wisconsin and Minnesota, falling 36.5 points short of the market expectations in the process.
At another time, the Maryland end-game positioning vs. Minnesota on Thursday might have been a favorable one – the Terrapins were in a one possession game down the stretch against a weak opponent, the sort of setting in which they could look for Trimble to step up and take control. But the ball was last in his hands three times over the final 1:30 of play, and the results were two turnovers and an air ball. He looked both tired, and lacking confidence. Over those last two defeats Trimble not only shot poorly, but had more turnovers (11) than assists (10).
Maryland only plays one game over the next eight days; this respite may be exactly what the doctor ordered for Trimble. A team that has been ranked as high as #2 is not going anywhere in the post-season without him returning to form.
In the Sights…
On Wednesday, the first day back to work under the NBA contracts, the Jazz only had a light workout because they had to board a plane for the four-hour flight to Washington, and a game against the Wizards. It led to an interesting juxtaposition, with the Celtics landing in Salt Lake City about 45 minutes after the Utah team plane departed. And that is part of what sets up #867 Boston (10:35) well tonight.
Because the Jazz had to play that make-up game vs. the Wizards normal NBA Players Association rules were suspended, creating the longest trip for a back-to-back setting that we will see, unless weather becomes a factor in the future. It was the fact that the trip also shortened Wednesday’s practice that seemed to make a difference on the court, the Jazz turning the ball over 23 times in a dismal performance. Part of that was their own sluggishness, but a significant factor was also the Washington ball pressure, with the Wizards coming up with 14 steals. Quin Snyder noted the impact it had - “Washington applied pressure. When that happens you are forced to attack. You have to make those plays and we didn’t make them.” That matters, because what Boston does as well as any team is apply defensive pressure.
Brad Stevens has used a deep rotation to take the Celtics to #3 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, trailing only the Spurs and Warriors, and aggressiveness has been the key – they are #1 in the NBA in forcing turnovers. Look for that defensive pressure to be a significant tonight, and as the game wears on the fresher legs to also matter – in a rare setting of a team already being at a road venue for two nights prior to game-day, Boston should be well settled-in for this one.
In the Sights, NCAA…
Here is one that should not come as any surprise based on some takes earlier in the week, with #577 Kentucky (time change to 6:30 Eastern) being put in play against a Texas A&M team that I do not believe is ready for prime time.
On Tuesday there was a break-down of the Aggie issues – despite getting to as high as #5 in the AP poll in late January, this is a team made up of veterans, but veterans that do not have any legacy of big-game or post-season success. And while there may be the appearance of a scoreboard rebound vs. Mississippi that night, it did not come from the guys leading the charge – the A&M starters were matched 44-44 by the Ole Miss first five, but there was a major edge in bench production to break that one open.
Now the pressure ratchets up even more, in a most-rare Saturday evening game with the national cameras in College Station. Those bright lights will not bother the Wildcats, in particular Tyler Ulis, who is playing as well as anyone in the nation right now, but I expect to see the home team struggle to maintain their poise, as a team that got vastly over-rated earlier in the campaign is still being sent to market with the wrong price tag.
The complete Point Blank Archive
U.S. Election 2016: The Perils of Polls
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)