Point Blank – February 9
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL Epilogue (Wade Phillips had one helluva playoff run)…On trying to figure out New Hampshire…Bruce Pearl’s offense was “pointless” at Georgia, and will be again tonight…
The final Tuesday recap of the NFL season need not be a long one because Sunday’s Super Bowl did not bring all that much to discuss in terms of lessons learned going forward. The Denver Broncos swept their way through the playoffs with an offense that averaged 14 first downs and 254 yards across three games, and the only way to do that is for the defense to play damn good football. They did. So let’s get to it, short and sweet…
Item: The Wade Phillips game plan
The career arc of Phillips looks a whole lot different now, doesn’t it? His game plan vs. New England in the AFC Championship game was terrific, but Super Bowl 50 was arguably even better, and that game came a day after he had already been named the NFL’s Assistant Coach of the Year . One of the concerns I wrote about last week was how the Bronco aggressiveness, which took Tom Brady completely out of sync, might be tamed a bit by the athleticism of Cam Newton, who could perhaps take advantage by getting beyond the pass rush to make plays in the open field. It didn’t happen.
One of the prime tools that Phillips had going for him is that his CBs could go one-on-one with any of the Carolina WRs and win the battle. That meant having extra defenders available, and not only did Phillips take advantage of that by dialing up more blitzes than usual, he also dialed up some almost flawless blitzing angles,
the Broncos filling the pass rush lanes superbly. There was excellent pressure from Von Miller and the gang of edge rushers, who got up the field enough to create pincers, guaranteeing that Newton could not escape the pocket to either sideline. Yet the interior lanes were also filled, and that disrupted Newton’s vision as well. Over time he got uncomfortable in the pocket, and it showed in his mechanics, throwing off of his back foot often. Meanwhile that rush was given ample time to disrupt through the coverage abilities of those CBs, and when the counting was done the Panthers could only manage 10 points, at 4.2 yards per play. They lacked the personnel to counter, although that will change when Kelvin Benjamin returns next season, but they also lacked imagination, with various Denver defenders talking about how basic and unchanging the Carolina offensive package was.
Not that the Bronco offense was necessarily any better…
Item: 14 and 254 was good enough
While the final score made the game appear to be one-sided, as has much of the coverage from the Sports Mediaverse in the aftermath, Carolina did lead 21-11 in fist downs and 315-194 in total offense, holding the Broncos to just 130 yards after the game’s opening drive. We will all be left to wonder just how much impact of what I believe a bad call had, with that “incompletion” to Jerricho Cotchery that would have put the Carolina offense in good field position down 3-0 instead becoming a 10-0 deficit just a few snaps later. That TD took a lot of game pressure off of Peyton Manning and the Denver offense, who brought little to the proceedings on Sunday, as had been the case throughout these playoffs.
The Broncos went 3-0 in the post-season while averaging 14 first downs and 254 yards per game. The worst offense in terms of first downs during the regular season was St. Louis, at 15.1, and in terms of yardage it was also the Rams, at 297.6. That puts how lethargic the Denver attack was into a unique perspective, but when a defense plays as good as the Bronco stop unit did, you can overcome that.
Where does this defense rate historically? It is not an easy case to build because of the nature of the modern NFL. This season produced a per-team average of 352.7 yards per game, the all-time high, and the 22.8 points per team tied for the second high over the last 50 years. That makes the raw Denver numbers not look as dominant as some other historical greats, but when adjusted for the way the sports is currently being played, they had a truly superb campaign.
Item: Please continue to be careful about Props
I hope that none of you got caught up into some of the mini-fiascos over the grading of props on Super Bowl Sunday, but as noted here and repeated on last week’s podcast, always read the fine print when it comes to grading, and if there is no fine print don’t play. Creating a stir this weekend was the National Anthem sung by Lady Gaga being graded both Over and Under, depending on the book, and that one will continue to be a problem because there is no “official” time-keeping source. There was also confusion as to whether or not “Yellow” or “Via La Vida” was the first song played by Coldplay, because of the way they were blended. It led one book, BetOnline, so pay out both options as winners –
Please, please, please be careful about those in the future.
Yet even game props that do have official grading can be awkward – I know of a few folks that bet that Ted Ginn would get a rushing attempt, since he has had 38 during regular season games in his career, and might provide a wrinkle after the Panthers had two weeks top prepare. There indeed was a wrinkle, Ginn getting the ball on an end-around with a run/pass option in the second quarter, but as was the case for most Carolina plays, the Broncos read it well and tackled him for a loss. How did it get graded? Because Ginn raised the ball in his arm for a moment to fake a pass, it was registered as a sack. Some who were happy after the play, thinking that Ginn had his rush attempt, did not realize until they checked their account balance later that it was a loss, not a win.
Item: Time to count votes in New Hampshire
As the 2016 US Election traveling circus passes through New Hampshire today the question becomes whether there can be the kind of opportunity that brought the decent payout with Ted Cruz in Iowa. There may well be; but for now I do not have the answer on that side of the ledger.
The current polls are heavily in favor of Donald Trump, which you can peruse here, yet once again I believe they are likely over-stating the support he will get in the actual voting processes, especially given that a fresh local poll that concluded on Monday showed that 31 percent in New Hampshire are still undecided.The issue is in how to take advantage.
Cruz is a non-factor in this state. Marco Rubio will almost assuredly not fare as well as in Iowa, with John Kasich and Chris Christie competing hard for the same voting block, potentially an all-in for Christie, who may not stick around if he does not show signs of life. So while seeing Trump as high as -1000 creates a mindset that there may be a touch of value across the remainder of the field, some of that Trump price is based on the fact that the other votes are scattered, and not concentrated among any specific contender.
Meanwhile on the Democratic side Bernie Sanders is trading as high as -8000, and while that may appear to be outrageous on the surface, Nate Silver’s Polls-plus forecast pegs him at a 99 percent chance of winning this morning. There is no take price to ever consider a Hilary Clinton ticket.
In the Sights…
I can get to #736 Tennessee (7:00 Eastern) from several different directions tonight, and they add up spelling a blowout of a fragile Auburn team. So time to get in play.
Revenge is obviously an emotional factor for the Volunteers, after a second half lead got away in a close 83-77 loss at Auburn to open SEC play back on January 2nd. But it is more than just the motivational aspect – in this case we can also look towards the pendulums of “Basketball Revenge”, given the fluky nature of that result. Tennessee had five more rebounds and five fewer turnovers in that game, leading to far more opportunities to score, the Vols having 26 more FG attempts, and eight fewer FT tries. It is not easy to lose with that many more chances, but the shooting gap was monstrous, including a 12-26 from 3-point range for the Tigers, to an unholy 3-28 for Rick Barnes’ squad. When a pendulum swings that far in the direction of the weaker team, one can call for some reversal towards proper form in the rematch, and it speaks volumes that the shooting gap could be that wide, and yet the game result still be so close.
It is a rematch that also gets easier because of the current Auburn limitations. The Tigers were already short-handed at guard after losing T. J. Dunans and Tahj Shamsid-Dean to injuries, but the suspension of leading scorer and assist man Kareem Canty has literally left Bruce Pearl without a point guard on the roster. It was so bad that he had 6-7/250 Cinmeon Powers trying to run the show at Georgia on Saturday, and while the betting markets actually credit Auburn with a cover (as +10.5) from that 65-55 defeat, take a closer look at the result - Georgia led by as many as 24 points and did not have the starters on the court for most of the second half. The Tiger offense was wretched, needing a closing 7-0 run vs. those Bulldog reserves to get the cover, and no player had more than a single assist.
I don’t believe it gets any better tonight, and in this setting I can see Barnes going for the jugular instead of backing off late. While there is concern at other times of the favorite taking the underdog lightly when a key payer is sidelined, I do not believe that applies here – not only is there the revenge motive but the fact that the Vols are easily forewarned about what can happen in such a setting, as Barnes emphasized to them that they themselves went out and won a road game without one of their key players (Armani Moore), at Mississippi State. From Barnes – “I think we all know the only game we won on the road was without one of our best players. I don’t think we think as a team, ‘OK, here’s this guy, one of the leading scorers, they can’t win without him’”. In this instance, forewarned is forearmed.
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