Point Blank – November 17
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #10
Time for the NFL week that was, a set of results truly for the ages, tied for the most outright upsets in any week since anyone I know started keeping point spreads. But instead of it being a titillating weekend filled with exciting finishes to produce those results, we were treated to some of the worst football I have seen this league produce on a single betting board. So before sorting through it, and all of the QB shuffling going on, how about a collective -
There is at least one thing that we can be pretty certain of – there will not be a Seahawks/Patriots rematch in the upcoming Super Bowl…
Item: Seattle has lost three games with a +2 turnover ratio or better (a good team can’t do that)
The question about whether the Seahawks are going to make another run this season can be considered asked and answered now. For the third time in only nine games they have had a +2 or better turnover advantage, and managed to lose. How difficult is it for that to happen? Since the start of the 2010 season there have been 468 games in which a team was +2 or better, and they won 82.7 percent of the time. In theory Seattle was supposed to have done even better, because those were merely all games, not sorted by what the point spread was. Yet the Seahawks were favored vs. St. Louis (+3 in turnovers in that one), Carolina and Arizona in the games that got away, and in two of them they not only had the turnover advantage, but also got a direct defensive TD off of one of the turnovers, yet still lost.
If we submit that a good team cannot have that advantage three times over nine outings and still lose the games, then it follows that Seattle is not a good team. It doesn’t sound quite right to say that, but note that in opening 4-5, three of the wins came over teams that had Colin Kaepernick, Matt Cassel, Jimmy Clausen at QB, and the other required the malfunction of the officials at the end of that Monday night affair vs. the Lions.
Of course, the Patriots are still undefeated, but perhaps some context is needed, based on what I read and heard on Monday…
Item: Just Sayin’ (on New England’s close win)
I cannot avoid the Sports Mediaverse on Mondays, it is the one time I am actively seeking out as much information as possible. And so there it was on Monday, with so many supposedly good teams falling, and the Bengals about to, that the Patriots were being lauded for “Knowing how to Win”. And indeed, they do – Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are as good as any in NFL history at maximizing opportunities. But our job here is accuracy, in as much detail as possible, in grading games and setting power ratings. As such it is important to note just what New England did down the stretch to “win” that game –
Exhibit #1 - Leading 24-23 with 6:10 remaining, Brady threw an interception on a second-and-goal at the Giant 5-yard line. It was a terrible mistake for a veteran QB in that situation.
Exhibit #2 – The Giants began at their own 3-yard line following the pick, and the Patriot defense could not make a stop, Eli Manning marching his team 86 yards and nearly burning off the remaining clock, before the usual New York game management came into play (and if the Pats do go unbeaten, one of the season’s golden moments will be the clock stopping on 2:01, instead of ticking to 2:00, on Manning’s near-TD to Odell Beckham, that second turning out to be most significant).
Exhibit #3 – On the ensuing possession, Brady’s chance to redeem himself after the goal-line interception, what did he do? On the first play he lofted a terrible floater towards midfield right into the waiting arms of New York’s Landon Collins, but Collins landed in a manner in which the ball was jarred loose.
So for the team that knows how to win, Brady was on the verge of bad interceptions on consecutive plays, and the defense could not get off the field when it mattered most. On this particular Sunday, even the NFL’s premier team failed at what they usually do best.
Now to drop way down in class, and quality of play, from a weekend that produced some bad football…
Item: Adios Rob Ryan (there really will be a Fat Man, in the Bathtub, with the Blues)
And so much for that. The pockets got padded pretty well taking advantage of a DC that somehow built a strong reputation despite undistinguished tours of duty with the Raiders, Browns, Cowboys and Saints. So with several topics ahead there is a little musical background needed to guide you through the day, and some old Little Feat live, from Manchester back in 1976, becomes most appropriate -
Lowell George has long been missed for his creativity, having left all of us far too early; Ryan was canned for his lack thereof, just not having a great feel for slowing down the modern passing game. The final bit of ignominy – how about three straight games of allowing at least four TD passes, without a single interception. No defense in NFL history had ever done that.
The New Orleans personnel is nothing special, but there are better players in the defensive huddle than the results this season show, and there is a more than capable DC on hand in former Raider HC Dennis Allen. With a bye week to do some tweaking, do not be surprised if this unit gets better over the remainder of the season.
Item: Jacksonville was terrible, and won
It is difficult to be much worse than the Jaguars were on Sunday, and still win a game - they lost the yards-per-play by a full 2.2 yards vs. a struggling Ravens team going nowhere. That bizarre final play, when Elvis Dumervil grabbing the facemask of Blake Bortles was about the only possibility of anything that could have resulted in Jacksonville’s favor, was a complete bust, Bortles having done the worst possible thing on the previous down, completing a pass in the field of play with no chance of the receiver getting out of bounds.
So how did they win? How about a +3 turnover differential, and a +91 advantage in penalty yards. If that +91 had only been a +76, they would have lost, and it would have been a rather embarrassing loss. And of course then there was this – a statement from the NFL on Monday that the final play should not have counted anyway. The Jaguar OL was clearly not set on the snap of the ball, which would have been a penalty, then a time run-off to end the game. The NFL statement - “The correct call in this case would have been to penalize the offense for a false start because all 11 players were not set, and whistle to stop the play. The ensuing 10-second runoff should have ended the game.”
All data-bases will record the Jaguars as having won the game, and over time how they won it will merely blend in to the other numbers. For now, it is a result you need to remember for the proper reasons.
Item: What now, for the Broncos (why the hell was Peyton Manning still on the field)
Just how much Manning’s foot injury contributed to Sunday’s horror show, a statistical performance so bad that it is almost impossible to describe, is an issue for later, though not this week. Here is how my numbers chart it - Manning had 22 drop-backs, counting sacks, and with the value of interceptions and an intentional grounding penalty built in, it comes out to -134 yards, the equivalent of the Broncos losing a little more than six yards on each pass attempt. While his health is not an issue this week, it will be again soon, so the question that does get raised is that if he indeed was that badly damaged, why did it take Gary Kubiak so long to pull him?
In terms of moving forward, there has been a significant adjustment in Denver/Chicago by the marketplace, some of that also from the outstanding showing by the Bears in St. Louis (more on that in a moment). So the handicapping task becomes how much difference does Brock Osweiler make, and despite reputations the answer must be a realistic one – Manning was dead last at #32 among starting QBs with a passer rating of 67.6, having thrown five more interceptions than anyone else, at a rate more than double the league average. Osweiler will be better than that. He lacks experience, but he does have physical tools, including an elusiveness many will not expect from a guy that is 6-8, and in Manning he should have the equivalent of another assistant coach helping him to get ready.
There are a couple of key precincts that show #467 Denver as +1 for the matchup against the Bears (CRIS is at +1.5); consider the Broncos to be squarely “In the Sights…” at that price, a chance for you to get out into the marketplace now.
Item: What now, for the Rams
Get ready for a running theme here this week. Nick Foles was #30 in Passer Rating, and only Andrew Luck has posted a lower yards-per-attempt. There were some folks that I respect following the Rams in August that believed that Case Keenum was actually out-playing Foles in training camp, but that management wanted Foles to get the first crack because he had more experience, even if that experience was badly misperceived – in getting to play QB in Chip Kelly’s first NFL season, when opposing defenses were not ready for what was coming at them, Foles was given the chance to put together one of the flukiest campaigns in NFL history. But then comes the twist – by having his professional career begin under Kelly, Foles has not had time to develop in a traditional NFL playbook. It showed.
I do not consider Keenum a drop-off in any way from the Foles performance level, yet somehow the markets do. Should +3’s show for #459 St. Louis, that is the “In the Sights…” target point.
Item: What now, for the Texans
I am not likely to do all that much adjusting here. T. J. Yates does not have quite as much experience as Brian Hoyer, who may not pass the concussion protocol on a short week, but the confidence boost that Yates brought to the team on Monday night should create a good energy level on the practice field this week. Keep in mind that while the Hoyer statistics look good, at this stage of the season there is still a little too much weight being carried by those fourth-quarter numbers at Atlanta. He has not been as effective as his overall counts will indicate, and this is not a major transition, especially with a realistic chance to make the playoffs energizing the other players to make a QB transition a bit easier.
Item: What now, for the Eagles
A continuance of the theme here – there just is not all that much difference between Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez. Want some numbers to sort through? Each has had almost the same amount of playing time at QB in a Philadelphia uniform –
COMP/ATT YPP TD INT PR
Bradford 214-335 6.9 11 10 82.4
Sanchez 212-332 7.8 14 12 86.6
There need not be any tweaking of the playbook for Sanchez, who brings a similar skill set to Bradford, so the reality may again be no significant adjustment.
Item: What now, for the Cowboys
Tony Romo’s return comes at a time when the Dallas season might have begun to spiral out of control, the playoffs now an extreme long-shot, and this week’s trip to Miami might have brought some awkward energy, the quick turn-around before facing a Carolina team that should come in to Thanksgiving day at 10-0 a distraction. So this is not just the obvious upgrade in physical skills at the QB position, but the fact that there is a spark generated at a time that the team needs it most.
There is an obvious issue of Romo getting into a playing rhythm, and quick back-to-back games are going to tax that. But I still see this as being a major upgrade, if only because I would have genuinely feared the Cowboy energy level for this setting had it been Matt Cassel one more time.
Item: The Cleveland offense, in perspective
There may be a QB choice coming up in Cleveland when Josh McCown gets healthy off of the bye, but there should not have to be much time spent by Mike Pettine making a decision. Somehow the Sports Mediaverse was abuzz because of Johnny Manziel’s statistical bottom line from Sunday, a 33-45-372 that looks rather sharp. What was not sharp, however, was a Cleveland offense that only managed one TD, that being a two-play drive that only covered 11 yards after a turnover. Manziel was sacked six times and had both an interception and a lost fumble. His passing statistics are not the most accurate barometer for the way the offense performed.
The prime culprit is not the QB play, however, but a theme that was established here back in August – the RB corps might well be the NFL’s worst. Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell carried the ball 10 times at Pittsburgh, and managed all of five yards from those carries. The Browns have had far too many outings this season in which the QB was their leading rusher, and until that changes, neither McCown nor Manziel are going to get many chances to win games. But there should be no issue that McCown deserves the starting nod when he is able to go.
Item: The Chicago offense, in perspective
In a week of sloppy play, not many positives jumped out, but the job that John Fox and his staff are doing in Chicago continues to be one of the season’s major stories – at this stage the Bears are actually allowed to be thinking playoffs. Sunday brought more evidence of the ability of this staff to adjust game-by-game. Entering the matchup the Rams had not allowed a TD at home over a full 160 minutes of playing time, yet the Bears found the end zone three times in the first half. It was not expected to be that way, with the St. Louis pass rush projected to not allow Jay Cutler the time to find Alshon Jeffery or Martellus Bennett down the field, but with the proper tactics, that pass rush was negated.
Consider this – the Bears rolled up 37 points and 397 yards despite Jeffery and Bennett only playing a part in 41 of the yards, and neither was involved in a scoring play. Instead the Bears used Jevon Langford and Zach Miller as effective counters against that rush, the duo combining to catch 12 passes for 216 yards, and they scored all four Chicago TDs. Instead of being harassed by the defense Cutler looked comfortable, a rarity when viewing him in the past. It is not enough for the Bears to merit the slight favorite’s role vs. Denver, of course, but it is another tribute to a coaching staff doing outstanding work.
Vegas: Monday’s with the Review-Journal NFL box score page
This particular Monday may turn into a tradition, the combination of sorting through the Sunday results (wondering what the odds would have been of both Langford and Miller scoring on TD plays of more than 80 yards at St. Louis), and also being prepared to grind through the NCAA hoops marathon, with games around the clock into Tuesday night. It means a two-for-one is needed, not only a quality lunch to properly diagnose the box scores, but also having a quick fix available through the hectic basketball cycle. That meant time to visit Naked City Pizza, my preferred location being the one at 4606 Paradise Road, sister to the original over on 3240 South Arvile.
Pizza, of course, is the launching point for countless arguments, with so many preferences and styles, but there was a little science in involved in letting Buffalo-born-and-proud Chris Palmeri to get the honors for this cycle. In this case it is specifically looking for a version that will hold up well, and it is in the thickness and flavor of the crust, and the quality of the ingredients, that Naked City produces a product that is a gold standard for the cold-out-of-the-fridge category, and anyone that bets on sporting events knows how important that genre is.
So for the second year in a row the cycle was set – grab one of the sandwiches from their menu while the pizza dough is being rolled out –
And then take the rest home for the hunger pangs while following the bouncing balls. This version was their “Back Home”, a roasted garlic crust, and the tomato sauce and mozzarella being mixed before spreading, a unique twist. A more sentimental twist, for those of us that can remember the day, is that orders come in “Full Sheet”, “Half Sheet” and “Quarter Sheet” sizes (this being a quarter; a full sheet would last me through the bowl games). I grew up going to pizza parlors on the East Coast where those same phrases were often used, yet had nothing to do with the food, and I am sure that there are some of you that need no explanation of that…
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