Point Blank – November 5
This time is "Prime Time" for Andy Dalton…The Thunder could use a little less lightning…
It is several days past Halloween, the point at which the 50 percent off candy bins are about empty, but there will be some across the Sports Mediaverse that will likely be bringing up the notion of haunted memories for Andy Dalton this week, as he gets ready to take the field in prime time against the Browns. Dalton has had a serious of bad games under the lights, and none worse than that shocking 24-3 home loss to Cleveland on a Thursday night almost a year ago to the day, when he had not only the worst game of his career, but one of the worst games any NFL QB has ever had.
In that dismal defeat Dalton was 10-33 for 86 yards, with three interceptions. That brought him the worst single-game Passer Rating in 10 years for QBs that had thrown at least 20 passes. And because his prime-time performances had been subpar before that night, the story naturally blew up. But what if that game was not the continuation of anything, but rather the end of a chapter? I believe the focus should be on considering the latter concept, and it becomes an integral part of tonight’s handicap.
How did Dalton follow-up from that awful showing? The ensuing Sunday he had his best Passer Rating game of the season in an easy 27-10 rout at New Orleans. How has the team follow up since hitting rock bottom on that Thursday evening? 12-2 SU and ATS in the last 14 regular-season games, both defeats coming vs. the Steelers. And as for prime time psychological blocks, one of those wins happened to be in a home underdog role against Denver in Game #15 last year, an outing in which Dalton threw an early Pick Six to put the Bengals in a hole, which could have shattered his confidence it if was too low, but instead he threw a pair of TD passes in helping to turn that game around.
Yes, Dalton will still sport bad prime-time numbers, but should they be used to define him heading into tonight? I do not believe so, and Bengal OC Hue Jackson, who is now in his second year of working with Dalton, does not see much resemblance to the past - “He’s a totally different guy. And he needed to be different. He’s taken on that responsibility and he has been different. … You got to get yourself out of funks. Funks are going to happen every now and again. It’s football.”
Here is why that particularly matters tonight. In Tuesday’s NFL Review there was a focus point on just why Cleveland’s game vs. Arizona turned around so badly on Sunday, a 10-point halftime lead for the Browns becoming a rout the other way, and the turn came when both Joe Haden and Donte Whitner were injured, gutting a secondary that was only starting to get back to health. And as feared the short week, precluding Haden and Whitner returning, is leaving that group short-handed. Not only is Whitner out but back-up safety Jordan Poyer will also miss as well, forcing rookie Ibraheim Campbell, who had not played a down prior to Sunday, into the starting lineup, with undrafted rookie De’Ante Saunders, who has not played a down, being added from the practice squad to back him up.
Think about some of these matchups. As noted here a few times this season, Cincinnati may have the best non-QB skill corps (RB-WR-TE) or any team in the NFL. Without Haden, A. J. Green becomes difficult to match up to. Campbell, at 5-11, becomes the primary guy to go up against 6-6 Tyler Eifert, who is second on the Bengals with 32 receptions. Nice matchup for your first NFL start, kid. And Dalton should have play action as a weapon in getting time for those open receivers, with Cleveland having already allowed 1,176 rushing yards at 4.8 per pop. This is nothing new for the Browns, who were dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed last year, except that they are getting worse – halfway through the season they have allowed six opponents to rush for at least 150 yards. That puts them on pace for a dozen, and no team over the last 20 years has allowed that to happen more than 10 times in a campaign.
See the wide door that is open for Dalton, should his head be in the right place, which I believe it now is? The Bengal offense is capable of both maintaining ball possession, and striking for big plays. The fundamentals of football science make this among the most one-sided Offense vs. Defense matchups of the season so far, and the weather calls for about as pleasant of an evening as there could be for early November. Which means that in order for the Browns to compete, they will need to control the ball and make some plays on offense. But…
Johnny Manziel will be starting at QB. Manziel will be starting at QB with the league’s least effective group of RBs behind him. And Manziel will be starting at QB without having Andrew Hawkins and Brian Hartline in the WR rotation. And that is why while so many will focus on the Dalton disaster at home vs. the Browns last year there is another game, played a little over a month later in Cleveland, that is more relevant.
That rematch was 30-0 Bengals. They out-rushed the Browns 244-53 in a thorough control of the line of scrimmage. Manziel and the passing game generated all of 54 yards on 21 drop-backs, with a pair of interceptions, the Cleveland offense only being able to stay on the field for 38 plays. But did that satisfy their revenge hunger? I doubt it. It is in getting this matchup on this field on a Thursday night that they could truly vent some frustrations. Often a team favored in this range will take an opponent lightly, and either under-perform, or be more than happy to win by less than the points pread. Not this time.
The pieces are in place for a rout tonight. The Browns are hard-pressed to match up to any aspect of the Cincinnati offense, and Manziel does not bring the tools, or the supporting cast, to play well from behind. So the NFL week can begin with #306 Cincinnati squarely “In the Sights…” a setting in which I believe the legacy of prime time failures actually helps to bring the proper focus and concentration level, instead of the lack of confidence that had been previously a haunt.
About Last Night…
I have had Oklahoma City under the microscope this season, focusing on the transition from Scott Brooks to Billy Donovan, the notion being that a talented team that had been under-coached might benefit greatly from new designs. Five games into the season what do the Thunder look like? A talented team that is under-coached, still. And the offensive in particular is showing cause for alarm.
It is not that rating #11 in offensive efficiency is necessarily horrendous, but when you have Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, that should be about as low as you can fall. The issue is one of trying to play faster, without necessarily playing smarter. OKC leads the NBA in turnovers by a wide margin, 3.0 per game more than any other team, and their 20.6 per game is 3.7 more than the 76ers committed last year, when they were the league’s worst. Meanwhile the Thunder defense has only forced 71, and a turnover differential of 6.4 per game is not easy to overcome.
Oklahoma City entered the fourth quarter leading Toronto by eight points last night, and Durant only took two shots during that final stanza. How wrong is that? His post-game comments are worth filing away - "I like that we're not as predictable. But we still have to stick to what makes us the money. It's on me to be more aggressive, demand the ball in the huddles. But also look for my teammates, as well. We're still learning, still learning this offense, but that can't be an excuse. We have to figure it out at some point."
Durant is one of the best offensive players in the history of the sport. The notion that he should have to “demand the ball in huddles” is actually a bit mind-numbing. But it means that tonight’s focus will not just be on Bengals/Browns, and seeing how ready Jarrett Stidham is for Baylor; that Thunder/Bulls matchup on TNT will provide another valuable look into a talented, but still troubled, team (of course, the same definition could be used for Chicago…).
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)